WarSclerotic

FEN HAMPSON: The coming war in the Middle East | iPolitics.

The odds are 50/50 or better that within a year we will see the outbreak of a major war in the Middle East.

There are many different causes of war. Wars of aggression are fought for territorial gain (Hitler’s seizure of Czechoslovakia and subsequent attack on Poland; Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait). Major wars have also been fought to prevent another country from attacking because a country fears it will be attacked later on.  Ostensibly, that was the rationale behind Japan’s attack on the US at Pearl Harbor in 1941.  Wars can be driven by miscalculation and misperception (the origins of World War I; US attack on Iraq in 2003).  Wars, too, are fought to shore up support for unpopular leaders (Tsar Nicholas II’s goading of Japan into the Russo-Japanese War of 1904).

All of these combustible elements are now at play in the Middle East.  There is no shortage of territorial disputes, especially in the oil-rich Persian Gulf between Iran and its neighbors, but also between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, that are friction points for conflict.
Political relations between the region’s most powerful countries are also stressed to the breaking point (e.g., Turkey-Israel, Turkey-Syria, Egypt-Israel, Iran-Israel; Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States versus Iran).  The risk of miscalculation amidst heightened tensions throughout the region looms large.

Iran’s unabated nuclear ambitions pose a different kind of threat not just to its neighbors, but also to the US and Europe. Someday someone might launch a preventive attack on Iran to destroy its up-and-coming nuclear capabilities.

The Israeli-Palestinian dispute has long been a flash point for discontent and unrest in the region. As leaders on both sides play to the demos to shore up their shaky political support, the prospects for peace plunge further.

President Abbas’s bold bid for Palestinian statehood in the UN General Assembly two weeks ago raised the political stakes in this dispute, but also tensions. Although the Quartet (US, EU, UN, and Russia) is trying to resuscitate talks, they appear doomed by Obama’s own domestic political weakness and Netanyahu’s refusal to permanently halt construction of settlements on the West Bank. Only extremists on both sides will benefit from the impasse.

Syria is the region’s wild card. President Bashir Assad’s regime clings to power with brute force. He has repeatedly rebuffed approaches by Turkey and Iran to introduce political reforms. Turkey is now threatening to levy sanctions against Syria, which will further isolate his regime. Assad might well instigate trouble on his borders with Israel in a desperate move to rally support for his embattled regime.

Egypt’s military and political leadership continues to struggle with street protests and a public that is demanding political change faster than it can deliver. The country’s economic situation continues to deteriorate. Joblessness among Egypt’s youth is much higher than the national average. Ballooning food prices coupled with the fact that almost half the country’s population lives below the poverty line are adding to the political unrest.

The recent storming of the Israeli embassy in Cairo, which Egyptian security forces failed to stop, underscores the deterioration in relations between Cairo and Jerusalem in the Arab Spring’s aftermath. Regimes in transition, even as they move towards democracy, have a long history of running into trouble with their neighbors.

Jordan’s King Abdullah, a longstanding ally and friend of Israeli, is also on the ropes. He fired his government and struggles with protestors who are demanding curbs on his power and stiff penalties to combat corruption. Tensions have reached the breaking point between Jordan’s large Palestinian population and its traditional tribal groupings which form the bedrock of support for the Hashemite kingdom. Jordan’s ability to play peacemaker in the region is severely compromised by its internal woes.

Israel’s relations with Turkey have soured almost to the point of no return. The release of the UN report into the Marmara affair and Israel’s refusal to apologize for the incident prompted Ankara to withdraw its ambassador from Israel. Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has threatened to send warships to support future aid shipments by Turkish humanitarian groups to Gaza—a move that could trigger a dangerous escalation in this war of words.

Don’t forget to throw Iran’s support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah and other extremist groups into this volatile mix.

It won’t take much of a spark to set the region alight.

This entry was posted on October 3, 2011 at 12:46 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.