DEBKAAli Salehi as Foreign Minister Is Cause for Reviving US Military Option
Just two weeks after Western media seriously considered Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad weak enough for the Majlis to institute a process of impeachment, he struck again.
Monday, Dec. 13, he not only fired Monouchehr Mottaki as foreign minister, but humiliated him by announcing him dismissed and replaced while he was on an official African tour.
Wednesday, Dec. 15, the Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy convened to review the dismissal. It has no power to revoke it, but it does have the authority to withhold endorsement from Mottaki’s successor as foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, who has been kicked upstairs from his post as Director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran-AEOI.
Iran’s lawmakers are not happy with the president’s continual takeover of various arms of government. But they know that even if they withhold endorsement, they are powerless to prevent Salehi from becoming foreign minister so long as Ahmadinejad is behind him.
It is an open secret in Tehran, say DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s Iranian sources, that the president acted without consulting – or even informing – supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, before switching foreign ministers and then, Wednesday, naming Prof. Mohammad Ahmadian AEOI Director in place of Salehi.
Far from indicating his weakened state, Ahmadinejad clearly feels strong enough not only to flout the Majlis but to make key government appointments on his own initiative – so far without incurring any reaction from Ayatollah Khamenei.
Ahmadinejad pulls the rug from under Obama’s diplomatic tactics
One Western intelligence conjecture making the rounds this week was that behind the Iranian president’s action was a scheme to replace National Security Adviser Saeed Jalil as lead negotiator opposite the Six Powers (five permanent UN SC members plus Germany) in the talks scheduled to resume in Istanbul next month with an acknowledged nuclear expert who has since been appointed to head the foreign ministry, namely Salehi.
That assumption fails to take into account, say our intelligence and Iranian sources, that Jalili enjoys the complete trust of Ahmadinejad and is part of his tight inner circle. Ahmadinejad’s game was, in fact, more circuitous. He took into account that Mottaki’s dismissal might run into the displeasure of Khamenei and/or the Majlis and so he had Plan B ready to pull out of his sleeve. This entailed another reversal: National Security Adviser Jalili – not Salehi – would be appointed foreign minister while Salehi would take over from Jalili as lead negotiator in the nuclear talks with the Six Powers.
He counted on neither Khamenei nor the Majlis having fast political reflexes and made sure they would be several steps behind his game of musical chairs and wake up only after all his pieces were in place.
Both his Plans A and B pulled the rug from under the premises shaping President Barack Obama‘s strategy in the ongoing negotiations with Tehran.
According to one premise, the UN, US and European sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic would soften its leaders into making important concessions.
This premise has proved wrong. They show no sign of budging from their toughest positions.
The second premise depicted Ahmadinejad as the most pragmatic member of Iran’s leadership elite and expected him to go for a secret accommodation with Washington on its nuclear program.
This theory has also been refuted.
The US military option fades from over-exposure
The president’s reshuffle of key positions in the foreign ministry and AEOI this week demonstrates the opposite. Tehran is presenting a harder face on its nuclear aspirations than ever before, with no sign of giving an inch.
This obduracy was further underlined by Tehran’s announcement Monday, hours before Mottaki’s dismissal, that its ground forces had just finished a major military drill near its border with Iraq. Contrary to usual practice, nothing was announced when the exercise began; nor were any details released about its features, excepting only the death of two officers in a road accident – Gen. Rahman Forouzandeh, a senior officer of the ground forces and a lieutenant described as his adjutant.
This was unusual: Iran always makes big play of its war games and never reports the deaths of high-ranking officers in accidents.
Twenty-four hours later, administration Iran-watchers are reported by DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources as beginning to discern the outlines of Iran’s latest posture. Its army had deliberately staged an exercise on the Iraqi border as a warning that should US military pressure on Tehran persist, its armed forces were prepared for a confrontation on Iraqi soil.
The White House hastened to pull out the military option yet again.
President Obama directed Dennis Ross, his special adviser on the Middle East and Iran, to leave immediately for two days of talks Wednesday-Thursday, December 15-16 with Israeli military and intelligence chiefs.
The question, of course, is how many times can Washington brandish the US or Israeli military option without ever applying it, and still hope to frighten Iran into backing down? The desired effect was certainly blunted by President Obama’s order in the first week of December to ease US military pressure on Iran and withdraw the USS Harry S. Truman carrier from seas opposite its shores. The next turn of the wheel will indicate where all these moves are heading.
WarSclerotic 
December 18, 2010 at 2:41 AM
Iran has already seized and laid claim to al-Fakkah field, a large military exercise on the Iraq border reminds Iraq for Iranian strength. Iran has always sort to create a Pan Shiite State encompassing Iraq, this is why Moqtada al-Sadr is a key strategic asset and the reason why we have repeatedly tried to kill him and he lives in exile in Iran. Iran failed during the election dispute to create a one party Shiite coalition and voting block to run Iraq. Nouri Al-Maliki was not Iran’s first choice for Prime Minister, Iran wanted to gain control over the security forces. Iran create this dispute by using agents of Iran to misuse the deba’athification committee. Iran was forced to settle for al-Maliki as they could not risk Iraq entering civil war which would result in both Russia and the PRC losing the investments in Iraq. This would result in both showing their displeasure to Iran at the UNSC supporting sanctions. Iran feared a civil war and dispatched militia leaders back to Iraq from Iran. We used former members of Iraqi intelligence and the military (the very people we had overthrown in 2003 and made up the bulk of the Sunni insurgency to create civil unrest to force Iran to settle for a government, we also allowed the dispute to continue to create pressure on Iran even after they had decided to settle for al-Maliki. So Iran has the goal of a Pan Shiite State but has failed by using soft power and needs to find additional revenue streams due to sanctions, they have moved into the methamphetamine market, so an oil grab is not out of the question, depending how much international pressure, if sanction take them to the brink then concerns of Russia and the PRC are not going to matter if they go for a large oil grab by invading Iraq. The UNSC be damned. With the nuclear bomb behind them Saudi Arabia and the other Kingdoms will be in no position to counter it even with the 60 billion arms deal. Iran would factor in with the US just out of Iraq and bogged down in Afghanistan that the risk of the US re-entering Iraq and being stuck in a Pan Shiite insurgency is unlikely. Especially when the US has stated that a military option on Iran is not their preferred choice and Iran consider Obama to be weak, as they have stated Iran has starred down Bush/Cheney, what threat is Barry. Which is not true because Bush had optioned that either Iran stop support for the insurgency in 2007 or face Thor’s Hammer as it was the only way to get out. Once Iran accepted the threat was real and limited their involvement in the insurgency Bush put Thor’s Hammer back and used containment to create another window of opportunity after we had decamped or US forces had moved back to bases and were off the streets (depending on situational reports) and Iran could no longer use US forces as human shields to protect the nuclear program from an Israeli or US strike. The US was meant to be out of Afghanistan by the end of 2013 but Obama messed it up and they have add another year or will keep 25,000 to 30,000 in country after 2014. The option was that if we had to go before 2014 we had applied risk management, as one can not be clear on how the covert operations will delay the nuclear program. Iran are aware of their time line to acquire nuclear weapons and our time line to deny them nuclear weapons. Iran should of had the bomb in 2009, now we are looking at late 2011 or early 2012, the magical work of the Mossad and the IDF will determine how long the program is delayed after late 2011 or early 2012 date. Israel is capable of pushing the Iranian nuclear deadline back to around 2030 I kid you not.
December 19, 2010 at 2:41 PM
Wow Matt, that’s a hell of a piece of commentary. Keep it coming!
December 19, 2010 at 2:54 PM
I agree. My only problem is with the 2030 date. After Stuxnet, the chances of cyber-sabotage are greatly diminished. They’re already on the brink of weaponizing.
December 19, 2010 at 4:01 PM
Do you still see it playing out like this?
A nuclear based EMP weapon launched on a Jericho III missile and detonated 150 miles above Iran would cause no casualties whatsoever to the people on the ground. What it would do is destroy all electrical based equipment from radios to trucks to power grids to tanks to missiles to centrifuges.
December 19, 2010 at 4:27 PM
I gave up prediction anything after Stuxnet. I’m simply not privy to enough information on our side to make even an intelligent guess.
The EMP remains an option, if necessary. Maybe it won’t be…