Hectic preparations for historic Ahmadinejad visit to Beirut
DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.
Feverish preparations are afoot in Tehran for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s first visit to the Lebanese capital. Reporting this, debkafile‘s Iranian sources define the trip’s purpose as a confrontational exercise to warn the US and Israel that full implementation of the tough new UN, US and European sanctions will provoke an Iranian war on Israel – waged from Lebanon.
Iran’s rulers came up with this plan in their marathon consultations last week, prompted by the realization that the US embargo on gasoline and other refined oil products were for real. Combined with the Obama administration’s partial success in closing the US banking system and markets to Iranian firms and the UAE’s consent to close its ports to Iranian traffic, the new measures have the potential for throwing a large spanner into the Islamic Republic’s normal economic activity.
The planning for Ahmadinejad’s trip to Lebanon – probably towards the end of July or early August – went into high gear after Syrian president Bashar Assad and the Qatari ruler Shiekh Hamad Bin Khalif Al Thani (who engineered the power-sharing accord for setting up the Lebanese government coalition in 2009) reacted positively to the notion of the threesome landing in Beirut aboard the same plane or in convoy, at the invitation of Lebanese president Michel Suleiman.
This procedure was advised to insure the Iranian president against a possible Israel attempt on his life and also that of Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who would be on hand in the welcoming party headed by the Lebanese president.
Sunday, July 11, debkafile reported that Hizballah had massed 20,000 armed men along the border with Israel, while Israeli Defense Forces had ranged tank and armored divisions on the other side of the border.
The broad outline of the visit was laid down by Lebanese Shiite lawmaker Nabih Beri and Alaedin Boroujerdi, Chairman of the Majlis foreign affairs and security committee, who was in Beirut last week to attend the funeral of the Shiite cleric Ayatollah Hassan Fadlallah.
It was decided to use the occasion for the Iranian, Syrian, Qatari and Lebanese leaders to hold a war conference, essentially to plot moves for ramping up the Arab-Israeli conflict. They have already decided in principle to lay the groundwork for a high-tension crisis to erupt between Israel and Lebanon some time in September or October, by which time Tehran will be able to gauge in full how much the new sanctions are hurting Iran.
WarSclerotic 
July 12, 2010 at 8:36 PM
From Ryan Mauro:
Uh-Oh: Khamenei Telling Advisors He Met Hidden Imam, Will Appear Before He Dies
2010 July 12
Ryan Mauro
by Ryan Mauro
Hi waitress, I’ll take a well-done hamburger with a side order of Xanax, please. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has out-crazied Ahmadinejad, who only wrote letters to the Hidden Imam in the Jamkaran well and said he was guided by God in preparing the way for the Imam’s intervention. According to a senior cleric, Khamenei is telling his inner circle that he has actually met the Hidden Imam and that he promised to appear during Khamenei’s tenure as Supreme Leader. Yikes.
I can only think of three reasons that Khamenei would tell his advisors this:
1) He’s lying, and he’s just attempting to sooth the fears of his closest advisors by trying to convince them that divine intervention is on the way.
2) He’s lying and he’s trying to instill confidence in his inner circle ahead of a major war that will usher in the appearance of the Hidden Imam who will bring them victory.
3) He actually believes he met the Hidden Imam, perhaps under the influence of the opium he is widely rumored to being treated with. Khamenei is greatly emboldened and believes war is imminent with an inevitable Shiite Islamic victory.
Two out of the three scenarios involve a belief that war is imminent—a war that, despite all the odds, the Iranians can’t lose because God is going to save the day. And that’s how they differ from the Soviets—the Soviets didn’t even believe in God. The Iranian regime believes in God and is certain that this messianic figure is going to win the final grand war over Islam’s enemies during the End Times, in which we are living.
Another thing to notice is that if this cleric is right, Khamenei is only saying this in private. That’s another sign that he’s afraid of causing a backlash among the people and clerics who have previously criticized Ahmadinejad for such talk.
The question is how Ahmadinejad and Khamenei believe this war is going to begin. Could it be that they believe an Israeli strike on their nuclear facilities is a part of prophecy unfolding?
I’ve got to get out of this Middle East analysis business. 24-year-olds shouldn’t have to worry about bat crazy dictators causing their hair to thin.
http://www.newsrealblog.com/2010/07/12/uh-oh-khamenei-telling-advisors-he-met-hidden-imam-will-appear-before-he-dies/