WarSclerotic

WPR Article | World Citizen: Fears that Iran Wants to Trigger Mideast War.

As the United States steps up its campaign to impose economic sanctions on Iran, fears are growing in Washington and in the Middle East that Iran will try to trigger a new war in the region in order to shift attention from its nuclear activities, throw the U.S. and its allies off balance, and put Israel on the defensive.

Few people, if any, envision Iran launching a direct attack. Rather, the concern is that Tehran will manage to stir up trouble in Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, or even Syria, in order to spark a new confrontation between Israel and one of its Iran-allied neighbors. Even if the most likely scenarios do not include initial involvement by Iranian forces, at least not directly, the possibility that Tehran could join the fray cannot be discounted. And given the unpredictability of armed conflict and the level of tension between the U.S. and Iran, the possibility of eventual American involvement, while unlikely, is not out of the question.

The first high-ranking official to give voice to the worries that have now started spreading in the region was White House National Security Adviser Jim Jones. In an interview with the Jerusalem Post in late January, Jones predicted a series of events that, one might argue, are coming to pass.

“As pressure on the regime in Tehran builds over its nuclear program,” Jones made the case, “there is a heightened risk of further attacks against Israel or efforts to promote renewed violence in the West Bank.” Jones said that Iran, under pressure from domestic opponents and international critics, would likely “lash out” against Israel through Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Some go as far as to argue that Iran wants to invite an attack against its nuclear stockpiles on Iranian soil. That speculation grew out of Tehran’s puzzling decision on Feb. 14 to move almost all of its enriched uranium, in the presence of United Nations inspectors, to an above-ground plant in full view of spy satellites — and bomber pilots. As one official reportedly described it, it was “as if a bull’s eye had been painted on it.”

The idea that Iran would want to start a war on its own soil is most definitely a minority view. The more likely setting is a clash between Israel and one or more of Iran’s allies. Tehran would favor this, because it would occupy and degrade the fighting resources of the Jewish state and inevitably heat up anti-Israel sentiment.

In order to make it happen, Iran and its friends need a flashpoint, and Israel is clumsily providing a regular supply, with its frequent announcements of new building projects in the West Bank and Jerusalem. There is such an abundance of irritants that anyone interested in starting a new war would find no shortage of excuses.

Jones offered his warning as one more reason for Israelis and Palestinians to restart negotiations — perhaps persuasively so. After all, a stalled peace process offers Iran one more opening to stir up simmering resentments.

Jones is not alone in his concerns, and recent events have added credibility to his views. Worries about a new outbreak of war are being openly discussed not only in the U.S., but also in Israel and Lebanon. And there is talk in Israel that concern over an all-out conflagration was part of the reason why Israel may have decided to take the risk of eliminating Hamas’ Mahmoud al-Mabhouh last January. Mabhouh was a key player in the smuggling of weapons from Iran into Gaza.

If it is true that Tehran wants to light a fuse to ignite the Middle East, Ahmadinejad may have brought a book of matches to a recent meeting of Tehran’s backers in Syria. In late February, the Iranian president traveled to Damascus for a four-way meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ Khaled Meshal. The editor of the pan-Arab daily Al-Quds al-Arabi called the gathering “a war council.”

Only days earlier, the Iranian government reported that Ahmadinejad had phoned Hezbollah’s Nasrallah and advised him to prepare for a confrontation with Israel. “The level of readiness should be to such an extent,” the Iranian president reportedly told the Hezbollah chief, “that if [the Israelis] ventured upon repeating their past mistakes, they will be finished off.” In the case of war, Ahmadinejad reportedly said, “the Iranian nation will stand side by side” with those fighting Israel.

Hezbollah has already warned Israel that a new war would see the Jewish State fighting not only Hezbollah, as in 2006, but the Hezbollah-Syria-Hamas-Iran bloc. Nasrallah has been sharpening the blades of his rhetorical swords, warning Israel that the next war could see Hezbollah’s rockets reaching Israel’s major urban centers and strategic locations, such as Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion airport and the country’s major ports.

Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the 2008 killing of Imad Moughniyah, a top operative in the organization, which it blames on Israel. But the truth is that it’s easy to find a way to start a war in the Middle East. In 2006, Hezbollah triggered one by infiltrating Israel and killing a number of Israeli soldiers in an operation to kidnap two others.

Inside Israel and the West Bank, every day offers an opportunity for resentment, anger and violence. When the Israeli government announced a controversial decision to designate as Jewish Heritage Sites the Cave of the Patriarchs and Rachel’s Tomb — historical sites located in the West Bank — Hamas issued a call to launch a new Intifada against Israel. The call was answered with disturbances in Hebron.

After Friday prayers in Jerusalem last week, Hamas’ wish appeared to be turning into reality, when clashes erupted into pitched battles.

Tensions have increased with Syria, as well. A war of words broke out last month between Israel’s fiery Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and his Syrian counterpart. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to calm the situation, but Ahmadinejad wants the sparks to continue flying.

Israel does not want a war now. Indeed, it is so concerned about a miscue leading to war that it decided to alter the long-planned Firestones 12 military exercise, canceling the part that included maneuvers along the Syrian border lest Damascus confuse the exercise with the kind of Israeli attack that Iran claims is imminent.

Experience of the Middle East has proven time and again that war can break out almost by accident, even when no one wants one to start. If a key player does want a war, it may prove impossible to prevent.

Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.

This entry was posted on March 11, 2010 at 4:02 PM and is filed under Iran / Israel War. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.