WarSclerotic

Iran has exposed the majority of its nuclear fuel stockpile to an aerial attack by moving it from a deep, underground plant to an above-ground facility, it was revealed over the weekend.

The New York Times reported Saturday that two weeks ago Iran moved 4,300 pounds of its low-enriched nuclear fuel, the vast majority of Iran’s nuclear stockpile, from the underground plant in Natanz to an above-ground plant.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that its inspectors were present when Iran made the move, and the newspaper claimed IAEA officials were baffled as to why Iran would leave its nuclear stockpile exposed to an aerial attack.

The news had military analysts in Israel, the U.S. and the Gulf region speculating as to reasons behind the Iranian move.

A number of theories as to the reasons behind the Iranian move have been posited. Some have argued that Iran was taunting Israel and the West, or goading them into military action so as to unify the country, while others argued there may be more mundane explanations, such as a technical need to move the stockpile or a lack of storage space suitable for nuclear fuel.

“There is a lot of speculation out there, including the idea that they ran out of storage space or that they are trying to move the fuel,” Dr Theodore Karasik, Director for Research and Development at the Institute for Near East Gulf Military Analysis told The Media Line. “I don’t buy that at all. They are very smart and they have been very meticulous at what they do. This is meant to titillate the West into come kind of military action by drawing attention to the fact that they have moved all this above ground.”

“Iran is playing a brinkmanship game,” he said. “At this time, the West, excluding Israel, has no appetite to attack Iran. So Iran is just waving this in the face of both Israel and the West.”

“They are also betting that the US and/or Israel would only do a limited punitive strike against Iran,” Dr Karasik said. “The leadership is hoping that a punitive attack would not really hurt them militarily and would unite the country behind them. So they are putting this target out there to test how Israel and the West will respond.”

Dr Ephraim Inbar, Director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, an Israeli geopolitical think tank, argued that whatever the status of Iran’s nuclear program, this latest move was designed to embarrass Obama.

“This is part of a psychological warfare game which you cannot always understand,” he told The Media Line. “What they are actually doing is a mystery, but what is clear is that this is not carelessness. They are quite smart, quite provocative, and they know what they are doing. So I think they are basically showing off because they know that Obama, who is a political weakling, is not going to do anything about it.”

Dr Inbar argued that from an Israeli military perspective there was little military significance behind the Iranian move.

“It’s not the initial product that is of interest to us, it’s their capacity to process it,” he said. “In other words the slightly enriched uranium itself has no military significance. What we are most interested in is destroying their capability to further enrich this fuel.”

Dr Ze’ev Maghen, chairman of the Middle Eastern Studies Department at Bar Ilan University in Israel, warned against reading too much into every Iranian move.

“Any of these motives make sense,” he told The Media Line. “A taunt would be consistant with the kind of ‘psych-out’ that we’ve gotten used to. It’s a way of saying we have a full right to do this and lets see you do something about it. The longer the international community doesn’t do anything about it the more solid this dynamic becomes.”

“But as clever as people think they are I also think that we attribute a bit too much plotting and scheming to them,” Dr Maghen said, “In the same way as they think everything we do is a plot or a conspiracy.”

Dr Maghen argued that such moves were more likely intended for a domestic audience.

“It’s for internal consumption,” he said. “There is no other way of explaining why all this time why they would flaunt their nuclear achievements.”

“I’m sure they have a great deal more uranium in many other places so i don’t think they’re so worried about loosing these stocks,” Dr Maghen added. “You put it out there and if in the end Israel does attack them, it wont be the end of their existence or their nuclear program. So I guess it’s a risk they are willing to take.”

Israel, the U.S. and other Western powers believe Iran is developing a clandestine nuclear weapons program, a charge Iran vehemently denies.

Regardless of Iran’s intentions, the Islamic republic seems to have mastered at least two of the three steps needed to effectively launch a nuclear weapon. The first step is developing a medium-range rocket capable of striking Israel and Arab nations allied with the West. The second step is to acquire highly enriched, weapons grade uranium, a process Iran has already begun at its Natanz nuclear facility. Iran’s progress on the final step, developing a warhead capable of being attached to the missile, remains unclear. Western governments believe Iran halted its warhead research program in 2003, but there is little consensus among intelligence agencies on the issue.

Gulf states, fearing the encroachment of Iranian power throughout the region, have urged Iran’s leadership to comply with international demands regarding the development of its nuclear program.

Israel, most directly threatened by a potential Iranian nuclear program, has been vociferous in calling for limiting negotiations with Iran and has refused to rule out taking military action against the country.

Iran maintains that as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty it is entitled to develop a civilian nuclear program and has warned it will launch a crushing response should it be attacked by Israel.

While Israel has a policy of neither confirming nor denying its possession of a nuclear arsenal, it is widely believed that the country has over 200 ready-to-launch nuclear warheads.

The U.S. has put mild but increasing pressure on Israel to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a request the Jewish state has so far refused.