WarSclerotic

One of the main lessons Hezbollah learned from the ‎‎2006 Second Lebanon War was the need to revise its ‎objectives in the next war with Israel, alongside the ‎need to devise advanced defensive and ‎offensive capabilities that would allow it ‎to wage war on Israeli soil. ‎

This process was led by Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah’s ‎‎infamous military chief whose 2008 assassination is ‎‎attributed to Israel. At the time, Mughniyeh‎ ‎‎determined that the next war would see Hezbollah ‎operatives rush the Galilee area, and to do so, the Shiite terrorist group ‎earmarked areas near the border where it has the ‎topographical advantage over Israel. ‎

To achieve these objectives, Mughniyeh‎ outlined ‎an ‎‎operational plan he personally supervised until his ‎‎death, and afterward, Hezbollah special forces ‎continued developing this plan. It was delayed perhaps only ‎because of the Syrian civil war, which erupted in ‎‎2011 and in which Hezbollah fought alongside Syrian ‎President Bashar Assad’s forces. ‎

This plan included training Hezbollah special ‎forces to take control of isolated Israeli ‎communities along the Israel-Lebanon border, ‎something referred to in Hezbollah circles as ‎‎”conquering the Galilee.” ‎

The plan also included digging cross-border tunnels ‎under the security fence that would snake under ‎Israeli border-adjacent communities. These tunnels ‎were intended to accommodate several hundred ‎Hezbollah fighters, as Mughniyeh’s‎ outline followed ‎the ‎North Korean model, designed to ‎facilitate a full-scale flash attack on South Korea ‎‎– a model Hezbollah’s Iranian patrons have studied ‎diligently.‎

In addition, Hezbollah’s operational plan included ‎developing its missile arsenal, which Israeli ‎intelligence believes currently comprises 150,000 ‎projectiles, to target Israeli population centers ‎and strategic assets nationwide. ‎

Hezbollah’s grand plan was to use its tunnels and missile firing ‎capabilities to demand the IDF’s full attention, ‎distracting Israeli forces long enough to allow Hezbollah operatives to ‎execute their plot to “conquer the Galilee.”‎ Operation Northern Shield, however, has put a serious dent in this scheme.

Brig. Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira is a former ‎military secretary to Prime Minister Benjamin ‎Netanyahu and a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.