WarSclerotic

The Trump administration is pledging that the United States will remain in Syria until the “enduring defeat” of the Islamic State group and the withdrawal of Iranian forces, a move that could signal open-ended American involvement in the war-torn country.

“We’re no longer pulling out by the end of the year; we’re going to stay in until we have an enduring defeat [of Islamic State],” U.S. special representative for Syria James Jeffrey told journalists in Washington Thursday.

The other pillar of U.S. policy is the complete withdrawal of all Iranian-commanded forces from Syrian territory, said Jeffrey, a veteran diplomat who on Aug. 17 was named Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s special adviser on Syria overseeing talks on a political transition in that country.

This “means we’re not in a hurry to pull out [of Syria],” Jeffrey said, but he added that this does not necessarily mean a long-term U.S. military presence in the country.

Jeffrey also said there is “lots of evidence” that chemical weapons are being prepared by Syrian government forces in Idlib in northwest Syria, and warned of the risks of an offensive on the country’s last big rebel enclave.

“I am very sure that we have very, very good grounds to be making these warnings,” Jeffrey said, speaking to reporters in his first interview on the situation in Syria since his appointment.

“Any offensive is to us objectionable as a reckless escalation,” he said. “There is lots of evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared.”

The White House has warned that the United States and its allies will respond “swiftly and vigorously” if Syrian government forces use chemical weapons in the widely expected offensive.

Jeffrey said an attack by Russian and Syrian forces, and the use of chemical weapons, would force huge refugee flows into southeastern Turkey or areas in Syria under Turkish control.

Syrian President Bashar Assad has massed his army and allied forces on the frontlines in the northwest, and Russian planes have joined his bombardment of rebels there, in a prelude to a possible assault.

The fate of the insurgent stronghold in and around Idlib province rests on a meeting scheduled on Friday in Tehran between the leaders of Assad’s supporters Russia and Iran, and the rebels’ ally, Turkey.

“We will find out to some degree tomorrow [Friday] if the Russians are willing to come to a compromise with the Turks,” Jeffrey said.

Backed by Russian air power, Assad has taken back one rebel enclave after another. Idlib and its surroundings are now the only significant area where armed opposition remains.

Jeffrey described the situation in Idlib as “very dangerous” and said Turkey was trying to avoid an all-out Syrian government offensive.

“I think the last chapter of the Idlib story has not been written. The Turks are trying to find a way out. The Turks have shown a great deal of resistance to an attack,” he said.

He said the United States had repeatedly asked Russia whether it could “operate” in Idlib to eliminate the last holdouts of Islamic State and other extremist groups. Asked whether that would include U.S. airstrikes, Jeffrey said: “That would be one way.”

There was periodic cooperation between the United States and Russia against the same jihadist groups operating in Idlib until mid-2017.

Diplomatic initiative

As the sides close in on the remaining jihadist forces operating in Syria, Jeffrey said it was time for a “major diplomatic initiative” to end the seven-year conflict. There is “a new commitment” by the U.S. administration to remain in Syria until Islamic State militants are defeated while ensuring Iran leaves the country, he said.

While U.S. President Donald Trump had signaled that he wanted U.S. forces out of Syria, in April he agreed to keep troops there a little longer.

Trump will chair a U.N. Security Council meeting on Iran during the annual U.N. General Assembly in New York this month. The meeting will focus on Iran’s nuclear program and its meddling in the wars in Syria and Yemen.

France has invited the U.S., Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Germany and the U.K. for talks on the sidelines of the U.N. meeting to discuss Syria, Jeffrey said.

He said Assad “has no future as a ruler” in Syria, but it is not up to Washington to get rid of him and it will work with Moscow on a political transition.

“Right now, [the Syrian government] is a cadaver sitting in rubble with just half the territory of Syria under regime control on a good day,” Jeffrey said.

Meanwhile, Syrian Prime Minister Imad Khamis said on Thursday that Idlib will soon be restored to Syrian government control and vowed to win any coming war.

“Idlib will soon be restored to the nation,” Khamis said in a speech at the opening ceremony of the 60th annual Damascus International Fair.

“Syria has prevailed and will win in any coming war,” Khamis said.

Last week, a source close to the Syrian government said it was preparing a phased offensive to recover Idlib. But Turkey, which has a string of military observation posts around the edge of the rebel area, has warned against such an assault.

The province and surrounding area is home to about 3 million people – nearly half of them civilians displaced from other parts of Syria – but also an estimated 10,000 hard-core fighters, including al-Qaida-linked militants.

For Russia and Iran, retaking Idlib is crucial for what they see as a complete victory in Syria’s civil war, given that Syrian troops have recaptured nearly all other major towns and cities and have largely defeated the rebellion against Assad.

However, a bloody offensive that creates a massive wave of death and displacement would run counter to their narrative that the situation in Syria is normalizing, and could hurt Russia’s longer-term efforts to encourage the return of refugees and get Western countries to invest in Syria’s postwar reconstruction.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stands to lose the most from an assault on Idlib.

Turkey already hosts 3.5 million Syrian refugees and has sealed its borders to newcomers. It has also created zones of control in northern Syria and has several hundred troops deployed at 12 observation posts in Idlib. A government assault creates a nightmare scenario of potentially hundreds of thousands of people, including militants, fleeing toward the border and destabilizing towns and cities in northern Syria.

“I don’t think that there is a total solution for Syria on the table, but certainly it is a defining moment,” said Sam Heller, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. He said that if the Syrian regime retakes Idlib, this would mark a near-total victory over the opposition, but would likely also bring humanitarian suffering and carnage on a scale greater than anything seen so far in the seven-year war.

Many expectations hang on the Iran summit, which will bring together Erdogan, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

Staffan de Mistura, the U.N.’s Syria envoy, made a personal appeal to Erdogan and Putin to find a “soft solution to this crisis.”

“We look to Russia, Turkey, Iran to come with hope to the civilians in Idlib,” he said. “There are indeed many more babies than there are terrorists in Idlib. There are a million children.”

Speaking to Russian news agencies in Moscow on Wednesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov repeated Russian statements that Idlib is turning into a breeding ground for terrorists and needs to be dealt with accordingly.

But he said Russia “is acting cautiously, selectively, and is trying to minimize possible risks for civilians.” He said the Russian and U.S. militaries, as well as diplomats, are still in touch on the situation in Idlib.

“I think the military situation will become clearer after the leaders of the three countries hold talks on Friday,” he said.

Instead of a full-scale assault, Russia, Turkey and Iran could agree to a piecemeal approach that would see government forces taking off bites of the province, including cities such as Jisr al-Shughour, close to Assad’s coastal heartland in Latakia province, and Maaret al-Numan and Khan Sheikhoun, which lie on the M5, a key highway that runs through Syria’s major cities.

According to an analysis by the International Crisis Group, one compromise plan could entail ending recurrent rebel drone attacks on Russia’s Hmeimeem air base in Latakia by withdrawing the de-escalation zone’s protection from specific problem areas, and reopening key highways in return for suspending a government offensive in Idlib to enable Turkey to find a solution to the province’s jihadist challenge.

Another approach could be to get Turkey to agree to a government return to parts of Idlib while guaranteeing Turkish interests in northwestern Syria, at least in the short term.

For Turkey, however, the loss of Idlib would represent a humiliating failure that threatens to completely defeat Ankara’s interests in Syria.

Can Acun, a foreign policy researcher at the Ankara-based Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research said Turkey will try to push at the summit for any operation in Idlib to be limited to “one that targets only terror and radical groups.”

He said Turkey could propose that the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces and other moderate groups in Syria be used “to weaken” the radical groups in Idlib.

Russia, which has seen its ties with Turkey grow amid Ankara’s ongoing row with Washington, may be willing to compromise to protect the budding relationship.

Volkan Bozkir, head of the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a senior official of Turkey’s ruling party, said he was hopeful a political solution would emerge at the meeting.

“They [Turkey, Russia and Iran] are all smart nations,” Bozkir said. “I am hopeful that a formula can be reached with diplomatic ways, with smart policies and not through the use of guns.”