WarSclerotic

Despite the serious escalation in the southern ‎sector on Thursday, both Israel and Hamas have been ‎careful not to break all the familiar rules of the ‎game, thus allowing for the possibility of a cease-fire.‎

The operational scope exercised by both sides may ‎indicate otherwise – Hamas has fired over 180 ‎projectiles at Israel and the IDF ‎has struck dozens of targets in Gaza – but an ‎analysis of the targets shows both parties “played ‎by the rules”: Hamas aimed at the Gaza-vicinity ‎communities and Sderot (the rocket fire on Beersheba ‎was the work of a rogue terrorist group in Gaza) and ‎the IDF did its best to minimize Palestinian ‎casualties.‎

It is, however, clear to both sides that they are ‎playing with fire – literally. Every Hamas rocket or ‎Israeli strike have lethal potential, which in turn, ‎could cause the situation to spiral out of control.‎

There is also the issue of critical mass: The ‎Israeli communities near the Gaza border are already ‎on edge and another sleepless night or two is all it ‎would take for the public to demand immediate action. Gaza’s ‎residents also have nothing to lose at this point, ‎but contrary to what some in Israel hope, pushing ‎Gazans into a corner with the hope that they will ‎turn against Hamas may only cause them to rally ‎around the Islamist terrorist group and support its ‎war. ‎

Meanwhile, as of Thursday night, efforts to mediate ‎a cease-fire were less than enthused. The Egyptians ‎are sitting on the fence, perhaps because they are ‎fed up and perhaps because they want to teach Hamas ‎a lesson. ‎ Earlier this week, Egypt allowed a delegation of ‎exiled Hamas officials, including Deputy Hamas ‎leader Saleh Arouri, to travel to Gaza through ‎the Rafah crossing to discuss a cease-fire, but as ‎soon as the delegation left violence flared-up.‎

Israel hopes Egypt will realize Hamas is ungrateful ‎and restrict the delivery of fuel and goods through ‎Rafah into Gaza, but it is unlikely that this ‎measure would be in Israel’s interest in the long-‎run, as it prefers Egypt maintain the role of ‎mediator.‎

What should concern Israel most is the fact that it ‎once again misunderstood Hamas’ intentions. The ‎standing assessment in recent weeks was that the ‎terrorist group was not interested in war and would ‎go to great lengths to avoid it, and those who ‎supported this view cited Hamas leaders’ frantic ‎rush to seek a truce after every border skirmish ‎over the past few weeks. ‎

Recent days have shown that the organization’s ‎intentions are different. The elimination of two of ‎its snipers on Tuesday gave it the pretext for war, ‎but Israel should not feel too bad – Hamas knows how ‎to relay information to Israel and if it wanted to, ‎it could have made it clear that it was conducting a ‎drill near the border. Since it didn’t, the IDF ‎deemed the snipers an imminent threat and ‎eliminated them. ‎

This was just the excuse Hamas needed to ignite the ‎border. Gaza’s rulers have failed to effect change ‎using the diplomatic route, so they naturally ‎reverted to the familiar military one, just like ‎they did in 2014, on the eve of Operation Protective ‎Edge.‎

Israel has made it clear to Hamas that the path on ‎which it is on is doomed to fail, as its offer of ‎cease-fire will not extend beyond the opening of the ‎Kerem Shalom cargo crossing and the expansion of the ‎fishing zone off Gaza’s coast. All other demands – ‎the construction of air and sea ports and an ease of the restrictions placed on the types of goods delivered into Gaza – will require a broader agreement that will have to ‎include the return of the two Israelis and the ‎remains of two soldiers held in Gaza, as well as an ‎end to Hamas’ armament efforts. ‎

For the moment, Hamas seems to believe that ‎continued rocket fire will break Israel. The IDF, ‎for its part, continues to strike Hamas targets to ‎convince the terrorist group to stop. The next 24-48 ‎hours are critical, and if the fighting continues, ‎it is highly likely that Israel will significantly ‎increase the scope and range of its strikes, which ‎would necessarily spell escalation. ‎

While neither side is ready to declare war, the ‎distance between these skirmishes and a full-fledged ‎conflict is short, and crossing the line between ‎them could prove instantaneous.‎

This prospect requires the Israeli military to ‎significantly bolster defenses, as Hamas may try to ‎launch a surprise attack – most likely using a ‎terror tunnel – to abduct soldiers and/or civilians, ‎as it did in 2014.‎

Additional forces have already been deployed on the ‎ground, and the military said that if need be, Gaza-‎vicinity communities would be evacuated so as to ‎ensure no harm comes to their residents.‎

From an offensive standpoint, the IDF will have to ‎come up with creative solutions, given that it has ‎been denied a significant opening move. Hamas’ ‎leaders in Gaza have gone underground and the group ‎has cleared all major headquarters and posts, and ‎while destroying Hamas’ operational infrastructure ‎has its value, it is not as effective as razing a ‎high-rise.‎

For these reasons, if Israel wants to end the next ‎round of violence quickly and effectively it should ‎wage a far more intense military campaign than ‎before to make sure that Hamas understands the price ‎it will be made to pay.