WarSclerotic

Israel has exhibited maximum restraint in recent weeks in the face of incessant rocket fire from Gaza. This restraint is a testament to the country’s self-confidence and might, not to mention capable leadership and sound judgment on the part of the political and military echelons.

This restraint affords Israel many advantages, as it prevents an unwanted escalation while allowing for substantial diplomatic and military achievements.

Sometimes, however, such restraint can backfire and have the opposite of the desired effect. On the eve of the 1967 Six-Day War, for example, the Israeli government’s restraint emboldened the enemy to the point of sparking a regional conflagration.

There is no doubt that Hamas are listening to the experts and commentators in Israel, who are constantly saying that for Israel, there is no better alternative than Hamas in Gaza, and that Israel needs to avoid toppling Hamas and retaking the Strip. Hence the unbearable lightness of Hamas’ trigger finger.

So Hamas is projecting a willingness to reach an agreement with Israel, which will ensure relative calm along the Israel-Gaza border. But at the same time, they mistakenly assume that they have enough wiggle room to continue walking on the ledge and firing projectiles at Israel. They believe this will improve their bargaining position, enhance their image as a force capable of twisting Israel’s arm and, most importantly, establish new ground rules, similar to the ones in Lebanon – which would restrict Israel’s freedom of action in Gaza.

Israel and Hamas are on the verge of spiraling back into a familiar pattern, in which a new round of violence would be utterly devastating for Gaza and ultimately leave the Palestinian population and Hamas’ leadership in the same position they are now, or possibly worse off.

Every day that passes, new red lines are being crossed. For example, just yesterday, a rocket was fired into Beersheba for the first time since 2014. The intensity of the latest round of violence can be lowered, as the current cease-fire demonstrates, but generally speaking, every attempt to bring the violence to an end will be harder than ever.