WarSclerotic

“Today’s action sends a critical message. The United States no longer makes empty threats,” U.S. President Donald Trump said this week as he announced his decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal.

In the chaos-ridden Middle East, it’s hard to imagine a more critical moment than this.

“If the [Iranian] regime continues its nuclear aspirations, it will have bigger problems than it has ever had before,” Trump added.

Trump did not specify what sanctions he would apply, how stringently they would be enforced and lead to a boycott of anyone who trades with Iran, such as Europe or China, and what exactly Iran has done that he considers a violation of the agreement, but none of this is important to the president. His withdrawal from the Paris climate accords and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement weren’t explained in depth, either. Trump, like former President Ronald Reagan, knows that American voters like to get excited about ideas, and one idea in particular – that America is a beacon of hope, optimism and success for the world.

Just like Reagan managed to change U.S. relations with the Soviets in one fell swoop when he announced the fantastical Star Wars program, and dubbed the Soviet Union the “Evil Empire,” Trump is appealing to the hearts of American voters and playing on their romanticism. It’s a gamble, but it’s better to gamble with a deal that only delays the inevitable and ensures that Iran will, eventually, become a nuclear power.

Anyone who reads between the lines of Trump’s dramatic speech (which coincidentally or not he gave on the anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany) understands that the decision to pull out of the deal wasn’t a difficult one for Trump. In effect, it was the only possible decision. The deal, as he said in his speech, is simply not achieving its goal of stopping Iran’s nuclear program. For Trump, a businessman and real estate developer, the deal was equivalent to buying an empty lot to keep empty. What’s the point?

Trump would probably have left the deal in place if the ayatollah regime were conducting itself appropriately, like North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been doing since the start of 2018 – if,  for example, the Iranians were to announce that they were pulling their Shiite militias out of Syria and Yemen, opening their military facilities to inspection as a gesture of good will, and promise to demolish the secret nuclear enrichment facility in Fordo, or if the regime allowed the Iranian people to take their fate into their own hands and allow women to go out in public without the chador (veil). Kim announced steps in this spirit last week, resulting in U.S. relations with the isolated dictator warming to the point of near-friendship, including joint Korean delegations to the Olympic Games, visits by senior American and South Korean officials to Pyongyang, a summit meeting between the leaders of North and South Korea, and soon, a historic summit between Kim and Trump.

Trump, as everyone but the Iranians understands, thinks that the medium is no less important than the message. This is where Tehran made its strategic misstep – thinking that French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, or British Prime Minister Theresa May could influence the president. As Trump himself made clear, beside the deal’s concrete flaws, it made the U.S. a laughingstock because of various clauses that effectively made Washington a passive partner in the terrorism enterprise known as Iran and opened the door for immense sums of money to start flowing into Iran’s coffers.

The way Trump sees it, the nuclear deal is a worthless option that, once it expires in 10-15 years, will leave Iran much stronger than it is now, and the U.S. without leverage on a regime that is on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons. What is the point of holding on to an option like that if we can dump it now? In other words, if we can minimize the damage and use a tool that has proven itself: pressuring and isolating the Iranian regime.

It appears that the final straw that kept the U.S. from remaining part of the deal was the humiliation Trump felt. “At the point when the United States had maximum leverage, this disastrous deal gave this regime – and  it’s a regime of great terror — many billions of dollars, some of it in actual cash — a great embarrassment to me as a citizen and to all citizens of the United States.”

It’s not every day that an American president admits to the world that the U.S. is withdrawing from a deal that it helped achieve, and agreement that even its opponents call “historic” (even if it’s a historic mistake) and which the U.N. Security Council has imbued with the power of law.

Identifying with the enemy

But Trump, being Trump, made his dramatic announcement a beginning, rather than an end. He left an opening for a North Korea-style rapprochement between Iran and the U.S. Shortly after he announced that the U.S. would be restoring sanctions against Iran at the “highest level,” he extended a suspicious hand to Tehran, saying that the door was open to negotiate a real deal, one that would put Iran in its place and restore America’s status as a superpower that no one wants to mess with. Not only that, Trump even said that “Iran’s leaders will naturally say that they refuse to negotiate a new deal. They refuse, and that’s fine. I’d probably say the same thing if I was in their position.”

When was the last time you heard an American president say he identified with an enemy of the U.S. in the very moments he was throwing down the gauntlet? As he proved throughout his campaign for president, Trump knows how to attack without mercy, but as soon as he is victorious, he is willing to sit down and talk.

This contradiction is the essence of the Trump presidency. He will not forgo his principles, but he is willing to open his heart to anyone who respects America’s status in the world and abides by its rules.

“But the fact is, they are going to want to make a new and lasting deal, one that benefits all of Iran and the Iranian people,” he said in an uncharacteristic moment of frankness.

Not signed, not final

Many in America are asking about Trump’s plan B for the post-nuclear agreement era. Analysts in mainstream journalism are wondering why he rushed to pull out of the deal and supposedly give the Iranians an excuse to kick out the nuclear inspectors. But they don’t understand the deal itself: It is not a signed document, just a series of general understandings between Iran and the West that was adopted by the U.N. Security Council. However, not even a Security Council resolution can force one country or another to stick to the deal.

A decision by the U.S. not to fulfill its part vis-a-vis Iran, will – for now – have only a limited effect. The agreements between aircraft manufacturer Boeing and Iran will probably be frozen; certain U.S. manufacturers will encounter problems sending their goods to Iran; but there has been very little trade between the two countries over the past 40 years anyway, so Iran won’t throw the baby out with the bathwater over this development.

What about inspectors? In contrast to what is widely believed, the deal itself does not directly address the matter of inspectors, which are arranged between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran, and the Islamic Republic won’t want to go back on them right away. One problematic report from the IAEA will bring Washington a giant step closer to a military attack on suspicious facilities. Not only that, Trump will be very happy to exploit a situation in which Iran expels inspectors or tries to fool them, and will use it as proof that the deal is dead. Besides that, in an election year, any move that gives him more international prestige as president will help the Republicans keep hold of Congress.

But Trump’s decision to withdraw from the deal is first and foremost a declaration of independence – from the days of the Obama administration, from international conventions. Trump made it clear that anyone who makes deals with the U.S. needs to know that the deals are with the American people itself, which could at any time elect a president from the other party. This is a very important message ahead of Trump’s upcoming summit with Kim; the North Korean leader should know that Trump won’t strike any deal that won’t survive U.S. politics.

And here is something no one in the Obama administration wanted to discuss: Iran’s rogue behavior. Trump made it clear that the Iranian nuclear issue is not an isolated one and is directly linked to Iranian terrorist and missile activity in the region.

In his speech this week, the president effectively declared the Trump Doctrine: Only countries willing to make real, lasting concessions will be able to make deals with America, and then only if they are willing to turn over a new leaf. The moment they accept these principles, America will be generous and forgiving.

“Great things can happen for Iran. And great things can happen for the peace and stability that we all want in the Middle East,” Trump said, aiming his words not only at Tehran, but also the entire world.