WarSclerotic

The battle over Mosul is about to end. The Islamic State group has been defeated.

However, this is just another phase in the advancement of the Iranian strategy to take over entire regions in the Middle East. In the aftermath of the fighting in Mosul, the Shiite forces that took part in the warfare will be able to move forward with their primary mission: Turning all of Iraq into an Iranian satellite, as part of the Islamic republic’s effort to create an axis of hegemony spreading from Baghdad through Damascus and on to Beirut.

This reality could expand to reach even greater, more worrying dimensions, if the Iranian or other Shiite forces try to settle in along the border by the Golan Heights. The Obama administration had a role — perhaps not intentionally, but in practice — in implementing this trend, both due to the nuclear deal that lifted the lion’s share of sanctions limiting Iran’s economic capabilities (former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry encouraged American and international banks to expand business ties with the Iranian market) and due to upgrading its overall status as a potential nuclear power. De facto, the United States’ declared and actual policy under President Barack Obama was to gradually disengage from the Middle East, opening the doors to Iran and its ally, Russia.

Relations between Moscow and Tehran have nothing to do with love. Rather, they are ties based on interests: Russia is concerned about Chechen Sunni terrorism rather than Iran-led Shiite subversion, while Iran’s ties with Moscow include cooperation on the nuclear issue (“for peaceful purposes”) and a supplier-client relationship for advanced Russian weaponry — whether Tehran is purchasing for itself or for Hezbollah.

Israel is conscious of the consequences of Russian-Iranian cooperation, and managed to force a pragmatic relationship with Russia via wise diplomacy.

And here is where an extremely important unknown factor enters the picture of the future of the Middle East in general, and of Iran’s chances of success in particular: the new administration of President Donald Trump. Specifically, Trump’s relationship with Russia. Based on comments made during the election campaign and afterward, we can see that the new administration intends to improve relations with Russia significantly and in all fields. However, this trend not only contradicts the approach of the Republican majority (and Democratic minority) in both houses of Congress, but it also does not align with the worldviews of central cabinet members. While the president makes the decisions in the American system, he does not typically completely ignore the stances of his ministers.

This matter will also have a very significant impact on the Iranian issue. As a presidential candidate, Trump declared the Iranian nuclear deal “the worst deal ever negotiated,” but canceling it does not seem to be on the agenda, even if inspection and enforcement efforts are increased. At the same time, strong responses, including sanctions, are expected in the face of Iranian violations of long-range missile agreements and direct or indirect involvement in terrorism. U.S. Defense Secretary Marine Gen. James Mattis, and seemingly also National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, see Iran as a sworn enemy and a threat to American interests, and Trump has instructed his defense secretary to prepare a practical plan to block Iranian efforts. This could include reinforcing U.S. troops in Syria and upgrading the U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf.

However, the question remains: How can the apparent conflict between the Trump administration’s desire to improve relations with Russia and its intentions to work against Moscow’s ally, Iran, be solved? Maj. Gen. Herzi Halevi, head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate, was recently quoted as saying, “A joint axis between Russia and the Trump administration could moderate Iran” — but it could also have the opposite effect. Previously, people criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for exaggerating the Iranian threat, but they were then slapped in the face with reality. And when Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman recently declared in an international forum that the real challenge in the Middle East is “Iran, Iran, Iran,” he won the consensus of many in the audience, including a Saudi representative.