WarSclerotic

The optimism of the ‘Obama victims’, Israel Hayom, Dr. Ronen Yitzhak, January 16, 2017

Outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama’s legacy in the Middle East is “one of near-total failure,” Professor Stephen Walt, a renowned Harvard University expert on international affairs, decreed in an interview to Al Jazeera last week. The collapse of the nation-states in the Middle East; the increase of terrorism in Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Egypt; Israel and the Palestinians’ failure to hold talks; and a drop-off in the traditional friendship between the Persian Gulf states and Egypt and the U.S. are only a small part what the outgoing president is leaving behind.

Unlike the Arab public, which according to polls was wary of President-elect Donald Trump during the election, Arab leaders have not hidden their support for him. They were the first to congratulate him on his win, since they saw it as an opportunity to change U.S. Middle East policy. Indeed, the appointments in the new administration, which Trump recently announced, seem to indicate that the three most influential people in the new administration — Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary Gen. (ret.) James Mattis, and National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. (ret.) Michael Flynn, along with Trump’s adviser on Middle East affairs Walid Phares — were all some of Obama’s staunchest critics and disagreed with his Middle East policy, especially with regard the Iran nuclear deal.

The Arab leaders of the Middle East have high expectations of Trump once he takes office. The declaration that was voiced in the Egyptian media after he was elected: “now Egypt has a chance to reassume its historic role in the Middle East” illustrates the change that Arab leaders are hoping for. The removal of American support for Islamist movements, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, which enjoyed the support of the Obama administration, will allow Arab regimes greater room to maneuver, vanquish the challenge of political Islamism, and cement their governments.

The Trump administration might also bring improved relations between the U.S. and the Gulf states, which deteriorated after Obama supported political changes in the Middle East during the Arab Spring, and more so after last year’s Iranian nuclear agreement. Even if Trump does not respond to their urging to cancel the deal, which was approved by the leading nations of the world, he will take care to see that all its stipulations are upheld and prevent the Iranians from cheating and misleading the public about the agreement. Closer U.S. cooperation with Russia could also check Iran’s freedom of activity.

This cooperation, which is expected to grow stronger once Tillerson, an associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, becomes secretary of state, could actually prove an obstacle to solving the Syrian conflict. In my opinion, Trump will prefer to give Russia a free hand there and not interfere, especially since the civil war has calmed down slightly and the cease-fire is still holding.

Finally, Trump’s support for the policies of the Israeli government and his refusal to foist a peace agreement on both sides bolster the assessment that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is far from over. This is the only reason why the only Arab leaders to express dismay at Trump’s victory were the Palestinian leaders, who declared that his win was a distressing, not a hopeful, sign.

This entry was posted on January 16, 2017 at 6:03 PM and is filed under Iran scam, Muslim Brotherhood, Trump and Middle East. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments.

Tags: Iran Scam, Muslim Brotherhood, Trump and Middle East