The Syrian regime, with Russia’s help, has made major military gains on the ground in recent months. Momentum is on its side. The opposition groups are losing negotiating leverage every day as a result of the regime’s advances and the opposition’s own internal divisions. Though the opposition is at least united on calling for Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to step down immediately, they are whistling in the wind. Assad has no reason to go as long as Russia and Iran remain willing to stand behind him.
Russia has clearly changed the whole strategic situation in Syria by showing its willingness to engage militarily to the extent necessary to keep Assad in power as long as he serves their purposes. Just as President Obama foolishly dismissed the ISIS threat early on, his dismissal of Russia’s determination and capabilities was premature, to say the least.
The Obama administration’s vacillations in its Syrian policies, which left vacuums for both ISIS and Russia to fill, are now limiting its options going forward. Even in the unlikely case that President Obama now believes that the introduction of a large number of U.S. ground troops has become necessary to fight ISIS, give a nudge to Assad to abdicate and help stabilize what is left of Syria, the American people would not support the prospect of another protracted conflict in the Middle East.
Moreover, the Obama administration cannot even lead the way among its own allies, much less bridge the gap with Russia and Iran who remain committed to Assad. The administration’s efforts to assemble a real coalition of Arab nations willing to commit major ground troops to fight ISIS in tandem with our stepped up airstrikes have gone nowhere. Saudi Arabia and Qatar do not appear willing to cut off the flow of arms and money to the jihadists, whether or not they belong to ISIS or al Nusra. Saudi Arabia is even insisting on which opposition groups should officially represent the opposition in the Geneva talks, with little apparent pushback from the Obama administration.
Turkey is presenting its own headaches for the Obama administration. Its strongman president Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the Obama administration of adopting a policy that has turned the Mideast into “a sea of blood.” He was particularly upset that the U.S. is relying on Kurdish fighters in Syria to help take on ISIS. The Kurds have been among the most effective ground forces we have to push back ISIS from territories it controls. Erdogan, however, regards the Kurds as terrorists who are more dangerous than ISIS. He blocked the Syrian Kurds from having any official representation in the Geneva peace talks, and is asking the U.S. to choose between Turkey and the Kurds as allies. The way Erdogan has been acting the last several years, we should tell him that unless he starts to fully cooperate and subordinate his parochial concerns to the global fight against ISIS, we will be prepared to support an independent Kurdistan right on his border. That should get his attention.
In short, the cessation of hostilities interlude, even if extended, will do nothing to change the underlying dynamics preventing a viable peace accord leading to the kind of inclusive Syrian government the Obama administration would like to see. However, to the extent lives have been saved and humanitarian relief has been allowed to get through for the first time, the pause in fighting has been a good thing in itself.
WarSclerotic 
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