WarSclerotic

For Saudis, Countermove Against Putin in Syria Carries Risks

Glen Carey

October 21, 2015 — 3:00 PM CDT Updated on October 22, 2015 — 7:04 AM CDT

Source: For Saudis, Countermove Against Putin in Syria Carries Risks – Bloomberg Business

Russia’s entry into the Syrian civil war has tilted the balance in favor of the government side, and there’s no risk-free way for Saudi Arabia — a key backer of the rebels — to tilt it back.

Powerful Saudi clerics are calling for a response to the Russian move, even though the kingdom is already bogged down in another war in Yemen. Analysts say the Saudi government will probably speed up the flow of cash and weapons to its allies in the opposition fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad, who’s also supported by Saudi Arabia’s main rival, Iran.

While the Saudis may seek to direct their aid to “moderate forces” in Syria, “the definition of this word is subject to much debate,” said Theodore Karasik, a Dubai-based political analyst. Sending arms “is dangerous in the medium term because of how easily weapons can fall into the wrong hands,” he said.

Waves of jihadists, most famously Osama Bin Laden, went to Afghanistan to fight Soviet forces after 1979, as the Saudis and U.S. provided them with weapons and cash. The effort succeeded: the Soviet Union was forced to pull out. Yet it ultimately backfired on the Saudis as militants returned home and turned their sights on the ruling family. Oil infrastructure, government officials and foreign workers were targeted. Saudi citizens also made up a majority of the Sept. 11 attackers.

Rebels in Damascus?

There are similar risks in Syria, where extremist groups already hold sway over large parts of the country. The Saudis joined U.S.-led operations against Islamic State last year, and since then jihadist attacks in the kingdom have increased, many of them targeting minority Shiite Muslims in the oil-rich eastern province. Meanwhile, Assad accuses the Saudis and other Gulf states of arming rebel groups with ties to al-Qaeda.

Some Saudi thinkers advocate direct military engagement in Syria, just as the kingdom has done in Yemen. Nawaf Obaid, a visiting fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, is one of them.

“The Saudis are going to be forced to lead a coalition of nations in an air campaign against the remnants of Syrian forces, Hezbollah and Iranian fighters to facilitate the collapse of the Assad regime and assist the entry of rebel forces into Damascus,” Obaid wrote in an opinion piece published by CNN on Oct. 4.

Already Stretched

Most analysts say that’s a far-fetched scenario because Saudi Arabia and its Gulf ally the United Arab Emirates are already stretched in Yemen. They’ve been bombing rebels for more than six months and deployed an expanding ground force, but have only managed to recapture southern regions of the country.

“It’s too soon for the Saudis or the Emiratis to be pivoting around to a different war,” said Yezid Sayigh, a senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “I really don’t think that the Gulf states actually have the ability to take on two active wars at the same time.”

Publicly, Saudi Arabia and Russia, who also compete as the world’s two biggest oil exporters, have tried to play down their differences.

Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir softened the Saudi position on Assad during a visit to Russia on Oct. 11, saying the Syrian leader could leave after a political transition, rather than before. Al-Jubeir also said talks with Putin were “constructive, frank and to the point.”

‘Collision Course’

The Saudi and Russian foreign ministers are set to join their U.S. and Turkish counterparts to discuss Syria at a Vienna meeting on Friday, days after Assad went to Moscow for his first official foreign visit since the war began more than four years ago. Putin called King Salman on Wednesday to discuss “the situation in the region,” the official Saudi Press Agency reported.

“It’s premature to assume that Saudi Arabia and Russia are on a collision course,” said Fahad Nazer, a political analyst at JTG Inc. in Virginia, who once worked at the Saudi Embassy in Washington.

The twin tracks of Saudi policy on Syria — talking to Russia and arming the rebels — are being handled separately by King Salman’s two top lieutenants, according to Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and a former U.S. Mideast adviser on the National Security Council.

Mohammed bin Salman, the king’s son and defense minister, is in charge of talks with Russia, and has met Putin twice, including earlier this month in Sochi, “to try to fashion a deal on Syria,” Riedel said.

‘Just Like 80s’

Meanwhile, the heir to the throne and interior minister, Mohammed bin Nayef, who’s closer to the U.S., is in charge of the rebel supply line and “ratcheting it up now just like the 80s,” Riedel said in an e-mail.

Salman himself was directly involved in fundraising for the mujahideen in Afghanistan, Riedel wrote in a Sept. 29 analysis for Brookings. Since ascending the throne in January, he’s taken a more assertive line on regional conflicts.

There are powerful forces in the kingdom pushing him to do the same in Syria. Fifty-five Sunni scholars called for a jihad there, and described Putin’s military involvement as a coalition with Iran “making real war against the Sunni people and their countries,” language that echoed the Afghan conflict.

There are some signs that Saudi rulers may be responding to such pressures. The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has detected an increase in arms flows to the rebels since Russia intervened, according to its head, Rami Abdurrahman. He wasn’t able to say who was providing them.

While direct confrontation is probably too risky, the Gulf states “can try to make Russia’s life difficult, the way they did in Afghanistan back in the old days,” said Gregory Gause, a professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University. “Of course, the consequences might be supporting people who will eventually turn on the Saudis.”

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