WarSclerotic

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The Kurds in Syria have indicated that they are willing to co-operate with Russia.  This would be a setback for Turkish President Erdogan, who wants to defeat the PKK.  However, in the USA support is growing for working together with Russia, because the US fight against IS is turning out to be harder than thought.

At present the Syrian army still controls a third of Aleppo.  The city is linked to the rest of the areas controlled by the government by a narrow road.  This route is under danger of being cut by Al-Qaida or IS.  The Assad regime has therefore been forced to co-operate with Kurdish fighters of the YPG, the Syrian wing of the PKK.  The Kurds on the other hand want to build a corridor between the cantons Afrin and Kobane and the Kurdish quarter of Aleppo, according to a report from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank.  The author of the report, Fabrice Balanche of Lyon University, recommends therefore that the US government should co-operate with the Russians, in order not to lose the YPG as an ally.

The Syrian Kurd leader Salih Muslim said on 1st October in an interview with “al-Monitor” that the Syrian Kurds are interested in an alliance with Russia and Syria.  Muslim also said that he himself was ready to fight not just for the Kurds, but with anyone willing to fight against IS.  On the other hand, Turkey fears that a new Kurdish region will emerge along its southern border, which could lead to destabilisation within Turkey.  Indeed, the Syrian Kurdish leader fears that Turkey may intervene.  Russia has promised the Damascus government to oppose any Turkish intervention in Syria.  At the end of the day, the Kurdish regions of Syria remain part of Syria.

The battle for Aleppo seems to be harder for the Russians than they thought.  The FT cites Syrian groups and anonymous militants as claiming that the IS overran the northern part of Aleppo on Thursday and gained significant ground.  This has not been confirmed.  Nevertheless the fact that the official Russian media have been silent about this up until now, indicates that the operations in Syria are not going so smoothly as planned.

Fabrice Balanche advised the US government not to hope that Syria will become a new Afghanistan for Putin.  The Americans ought rather to adjust to the new situation and make sure that they have a say in the new order in the Middle Eat.  This strategy is also supported by major players in the US government.