Israel’s Risk Aversion Problem

Israel’s Risk Aversion Problem, Town Hall, Caroline Glick, October 2, 2015

Netanyahu and glasses

Because his strategy is based on ideological beliefs rather than power calculations rooted in reality, Obama’s position cannot be swayed by evidence, even when evidence shows that his administration’s policies endanger US national security.

The more Israel allows other actors to determine the nature of the emerging regional order, the less secure Israel will be. The more willing we are to take calculated risks today the greater our ability will be to influence the future architecture of regional power relations and so minimize threats to our survival in the decades to come.

***********************

On Wednesday the Obama administration was caught off guard by Russia’s rapid rise in Syria. As the Russians began bombing a US-supported militia along the Damascus-Homs highway, Secretary of State John Kerry was meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, at the UN. Just hours before their meeting Kerry was insisting that Russia’s presence in Syria would likely be a positive development.

Reacting to the administration’s humiliation, Republican Sen. John McCain said, “This administration has confused our friends, encouraged our enemies, mistaken an excess of caution for prudence and replaced the risks of action with the perils of inaction.”

McCain added that Russian President Vladimir Putin had stepped “into the wreckage of this administration’s Middle East policy.”

While directed at the administration, McCain’s general point is universally applicable. Today is no time for an overabundance of caution.

The system of centralized regimes that held sway in the Arab world since the breakup of the Ottoman Empire nearly a century ago has unraveled. The shape of the new order has yet to be determined.

The war in Syria and the chaos and instability engulfing the region are part and parcel of the birth pangs of a new regional governing architecture now taking form. Actions taken by regional and global actors today will likely will influence power relations for generations.

Putin understands the opportunity of the moment.

He views the decomposition of Syria as an opportunity to rebuild Russia’s power and influence in the Middle East – at America’s expense.

Russia isn’t the only strategic player seeking to exploit the war in Syria and the regional chaos. Turkey and Iran are also working assiduously to take advantage of the current absence of order to advance their long term interests.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is exploiting the rise of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq to fight the Kurds in both countries. Erdogan’s goal is twofold: to prevent the establishment of an independent Kurdistan and to disenfranchise the Kurds in Turkey.

As for Iran, Syria is Iran’s bulwark against Sunni power in the Arab world and the logistical base for Tehran’s Shi’ite foreign legion Hezbollah. Iranian dictator Ali Khamenei is willing to fight to the bitter end to hold as much of Syrian territory as possible.

Broadly speaking, Iran views the breakup of the Arab state system as both a threat and an opportunity.

The chaos threatens Iran, because it has radicalized the Sunni world. If Sunni forces unite, their numeric advantage against Shi’ite Iran will imperil it.

The power of Sunni numbers is the reason Bashar Assad now controls a mere sixth of Syrian territory. To prevent his fate from befalling them, the Iranians seek to destabilize neighboring regimes and where possible install proxy governments in their stead.

Iran’s cultivation of alliances and proxy relationships with Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaida, and its phony war against Islamic State all point to an overarching goal of keeping Sunni forces separated and dependent on Tehran.

The Iranian regime also fears the prospect of being overthrown by its domestic opponents. To counter this threat the regime engages in large-scale and ever escalating repression of its perceived foes.

Iran’s nuclear program also plays a key role in the regime’s survival strategy. As Khamenei and his underlings see things, nuclear weapons protect the regime in three ways. They deter Iran’s external foes. They increase domestic support for the regime by enriching Iran which, no longer under international sanctions, sees its diplomatic and economic prestige massively enhanced due to its nuclear program.

Finally, there is Iran’s war with Israel and the US. A nuclear-armed Iran is a direct threat to both countries.

And this, too, is a boon for the mullacracy. From the regime’s perspective, fighting Israel and the US serves to neutralize the Sunni threat to the regime. The more Iran is seen as fighting Israel and the US the more legitimate it appears to Sunni jihadists.

This then brings us to the Americans. Like the Russians, the Turks and the Iranians, President Barack Obama and his associates are strategic players. Unlike those powers however, the administration is moved not by raw power calculations but by ideological dictates.

Obama and his advisers are convinced that the instability and radicalization of states and actors throughout the region is the consequence of the actions of past US administrations and those of America’s regional allies – first and foremost, Israel and Egypt. The basis for this conviction is the administration’s post-colonial ideological underpinnings.

Because his strategy is based on ideological beliefs rather than power calculations rooted in reality, Obama’s position cannot be swayed by evidence, even when evidence shows that his administration’s policies endanger US national security.

This brings us to Israel.

Israel has limited power to influence regional events.

It cannot change its neighbors’ values or cultures. Israel can however limit its neighbors’ ability to harm it and expand its ability to deter would be aggressors by among other things, using its power judiciously to influence now forming power balances between various regional and world actors.

Israel has followed this model in Syria with notable success.

At an early stage of the war our leaders recognized that aside from the Kurds, who have no shared border with us, there are no viable actors in Syria that are not dangerous to Israel. As a result, Israel has no interest in the victory of one group against others.

The only actor in Syria that Israel has felt it necessary to actively rein in is Hezbollah. So it has acted repeatedly to prevent Hezbollah from using its operational presence in Syria as a means for augmenting its offensive capabilities in Lebanon.

The problem with this strategy is that it has ignored the fact that from Hezbollah’s perspective, there is no operational difference between Lebanon and Syria.

The war in Syria spread to Lebanon years ago.

Now, with Iranian and Russian assistance, Hezbollah is beginning to develop the industrial capacity to bypass Israel and independently produce advanced weapons inside Lebanon. This rapid industrialization of Hezbollah’s military capabilities requires Israel to end its respect for the all-but-destroyed international border and take direct action against Hezbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon.

This brings us to Hezbollah’s boss, Iran. For the past several years, the same caution that has led Israel to grant de facto immunity to Hezbollah forces in Lebanon has led to Israel’s passivity and deference to the Obama administration in relation to Iran’s nuclear program.

With regard to Iran’s nuclear installations, the strategy of passivity has largely been forced onto an unwilling political leadership by Israel’s military leaders.

For the past several years, the IDF’s General Staff has refused to support the government’s position on Iran’s nuclear program.

Our military leaders have justified their insubordination by arguing that if Israel takes independent action against Iran’s nuclear program it will undermine its bilateral relations with the US, which they consider more important than preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Although under the best of circumstances, the IDF’s position would be unacceptable from the perspective of democratic norms of governance, since the ideologically driven Obama administration took power seven years ago, the military’s position has imperiled the country.

So long as Obama – or the ideology that informs his actions – remains in power in Washington, US security guarantees towards Israel will have no credibility.

The IDF’s assessment that ties to the US are more important than preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power will remain incorrect, and dangerously so.

Today is Israel’s opportunity to shape the future of the Middle East by not only preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power, but by preventing a regional nuclear arms race.

The closer Iran comes to emerging as a nuclear power, the more Sunni regimes, including Islamic State, will seek their own nuclear capabilities. It goes without saying that the more regional actors have nuclear weapons, the more dangerous the region becomes for Israel, and indeed for the world as a whole.

For many Israelis, the story of the week wasn’t Russia’s air strikes against US-allied forces in Syria. It was PLO chief and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s speech at the UN General Assembly.

Leftists expressed horror in the face of Abbas’s threat to end the PLO’s adherence to the agreements it signed with Israel in the 1990s (and has stood in material breach of ever since). The government insisted, for its part that the reason the peace process has not brought peace is because Abbas and his PLO refuse to negotiate with Israel.

Unfortunately, both sides’ responses to Abbas’s speech indicate that Israel has lost all semblance of strategic purpose in regard to the Palestinians.

Fifteen years ago this week, on September 28, 2000, the Palestinians opened their terrorist war against Israel. Ever since it has been clear that no Palestinian faction is interested in living at peace with Israel.

Despite this, for the past 15 years, Israel has refused to reconsider its strategic allegiance to the false notion that it has the ability to influence the hearts and minds of the Palestinians and bend them in the direction of peace.

This delusional thinking is what caused the IDF’s General Staff to convene immediately after Operation Protective Edge ended and try to figure out how to rebuild Gaza.

Ever since the cease-fire came into force, Hamas has diverted all the assistance it has received from Israel and the international community not to rebuild Gaza, but to rebuild its military capacity to harm Israel. And yet, from the IDF’s perspective, ever since the war ended our most urgent task has been to save Hamas and the Palestinians alike from reckoning with the price of their aggression.

Likewise, Israel continues to insist that we have a strategic interest in peace with the PLO. Even if this is true in theory, chances are greater that unicorns will fall from the sky and prance through Jerusalem’s Old City than that the PLO will agree to make peace with Israel.

Our continued defense of the PLO as a legitimate actor harms our ability to secure other strategic interests that are achievable and can improve Israel’s regional position. These interests include securing transportation arteries in Judea and Samaria and strengthening Israel’s military and political control over the areas. These interests have only grown more acute in recent years with the rise of jihadist forces throughout the region and among the Palestinians themselves.

This brings us back to McCain and his strategic wisdom.

Israel must not allow the risks of action to lure us into strategic paralysis that imperils our future.

The more Israel allows other actors to determine the nature of the emerging regional order, the less secure Israel will be. The more willing we are to take calculated risks today the greater our ability will be to influence the future architecture of regional power relations and so minimize threats to our survival in the decades to come.

Explore posts in the same categories: Abbas, Arab nations, Death to Israel, Defense of Israel, Foreign policy, Hezbollah, Ideology, Iran - Syria war, Iran scam, Iranian nukes, Iranian proxies, Iranian Threats, Israel, Israeli attack on Iran nukes, Obama - Middle East, Obama's legacy, Palestinian Authority, Palestinian heroes, Palestinians, Putin, Russia, Russia - Middle East, Shia, Sunni, Syrian war, Theocracy

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44 Comments on “Israel’s Risk Aversion Problem”

  1. John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

    All true but it’s already to late. All this article proves is Israel’s current leadership, both military and civilian are insane and frozen in fear. The tsunami heading toward Israel cannot be managed, no matter how much delusional Israeli leadership thinks it can.

    • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

      I,am afraid to that Israel is just riding the waves and are in danger of sinking .

      Insane , no !

      Afraid of the world opinion , sure !

    • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

      I say it again, Russia keeps a key to solve the middle east problems , realizing that is not being a Putin lover or a commie, just reality .

      A reboot between Russia and the USA will be good for the world AND THE USA !

      And inherent good for Israel !

      • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

        Hope you’re right Joop, but I’m afraid the “Game of Thrones” is genetically coded into our brains. All want to site on
        the Iron Throne.

        • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

          For those who’re not familiar with Game of Thrones and the Iron Throne. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Throne_(A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire)

        • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

          What do i know, i,am just longing for knowledge .

        • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

          But the question is can we break free from our DNA jail ?

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            That’s like asking how do birds know how to build a nest? People say it’s instinct. Well, what is instinct. Instinct is just another way of saying coding. Birds know how to build a nest because it’s coded in to their DNA.

            DNA is just a real sophisticated form of computer code.

            You’re correct Joop we are under control, but it’s by whoever wrote our DNA. We cannot just bulldoze think our way out of the coding. Just as a computer software program can just rewrite itself.

          • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

            Not just, that is correct but the ” code writer ” gave us one thing more than the rest of the living species !
            Do you know what that is ?
            I will tell you .
            We are able to ask WHY !
            Big mistake from the code writer , or was that on purpose so we can look fore answers and find a final destination, or is it just a freaking anomaly from ” nature” ?

            As i see it we ( human kind ) does not fit in the biological order, we are the freaks on earth ,we are able to destroy and/or to create at willing .
            And now the big question.
            WHY do we have this ability, on what purpose .

            WHY !

            That question is a heavy load, mm, the answer will be more the heavy load and a big responsibility if known .

  2. John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

    Meant to say, just as a computer software program can not just rewrite itself.


    • But in lots of the science fiction I’ve read about artificial intelligence they do just that.

    • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

      Now more technical , yes it can !

      dig into : self-modifying code and Algorithm.

      Bottle neck is speed of the amazing amount of calculations needed, but whit the new developments in quantum computing i see in the near future a big break trough in self correcting programs ( software ) call it artificial intelligence .

      Not to mention the integration of human brain cells on chips.

      The technology is a way further that you think of have knowledge about, i,am an old techie and i have read a life time about this developments as available in bits and peaces , you have to combine a lot of info by yourself .

      Can go on for ever about this, just one thing more, dig into intelligent nano bots , restructuring dna and so on.

      the break away society, no science fiction but reality and science owned and controlled by few .

      • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

        Joop I’m a happily married man, but try as I might it’s nearly impossible not to check out the hot little brunette walking by. That response is hard wire into my DNA. Propagation of the species and self presavation are two of the strongest instincts/programming that’s hard wired into each and every one of us. We are victims to that response just as we are victim to the hormones that are released when certain DNA triggers are pulled.

        Reason and civilized behavior can be dashed on the rocks in certain cases by thes instincts. Wars and crimes of passion are many times cause by these instincts.

        • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

          And that is your DNA at work .

          The same DNA what stops producing some essential chemicals to sustain live, programmed suicide, we are getting a finger behind that to .

          It is all about your cells, better the mitochondria, your battery in your cells .

          Very difficult, but i did some study about it ( 6 months 4 hours a night !)

          just a start: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/B:JOBB.0000041772.74810.92

          This is interesting : http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10715760290021342#.Vg8JI2tyzS0

          I advise for everybody to take Coq10 and resveratrol, that is what they use in the very expensive health institutes.

          I take 100 mg a day from both, not expensive .

        • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

          I can not open your eyes and awareness, only give you a direction in a other way of thinking , it is complete up to you.

          That is why i call it a DNA jail , if you are born in a jail you are not able to see the bars easy it takes a lot of thinking forcing studying and efforts, it is an endless road to knowledge without an end , but walking on this road you have to change in time from shoes because the are become worn out .
          Don,t be afraid the journey is it worth .

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            Gee Joop I majored in Biology minored in Chemistry in college.

            Granted, that was when county was done on an abacus, but I’ve still retained some knowledge.

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            Should have been counting was done on an abucus.

      • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

        Joop, the future that Ray and other futurists see is yet to happen.

        Your concept of the breakaway society assumes a select few already have advanced technology. Obtained how? By a mad scientist like Red Skull cloistered away in some secret lab? Aliens? Time travelers?

        As Karl Sagan once said, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Sorry Joop but I choose to believe the future for us is yet to come.

        • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

          Now to really mess with your mind! There is a school of thought out there that posits we live in a computer simulation run by our future selves (not us) but future humans post humans called the ancestors simulation. Used by them to study their distant past.

          So Joop you may be just a computer generated AI, simulating the life of the real Joop who lived thousands of years ago. Try wrapping your head around that one.

          • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

            Nice try JP, but futile, why can,t we remember the truth of the interaction of the universal forces if we are born, why do we have to go through that whole learning process, is our RAM so volatile ?
            Why is that protection backed in to staple up knowledge on individual base , but not on collective base , are we just a part of a bigger collective being , entity or what ever ?
            Has the awareness to grow that we just are a part of a bigger being ?
            Are we just reproductions from out the same forces in a different arrangement ?

            Are we just adding to the entropy ( chaos )
            Why ?

            Why are we able to ask WHY ?

        • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

          If you have endless amount of money and power , you can set up in complete diversity research , nobody knows something from the other research,this is going on for a long time even century,s , i can give you a ton of examples, but not now, i,am have pleasure in this conversation and my Heineken, for the first time in a week after my operation, let it flow, !

          of course they have already advance technology and knowledge , do you think they tell you everything ?

          Is it so hard for you to accept that you are not belonging to the core society ?

    • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

      Pre coding stam cells is one of the scary but very interesting developments.

      The barrier between ( if ever exist ) biology and technology get smaller and smaller , i,am wondering myself what is already possible in class AAA laboratory , silent obscure business !

      • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

        Joop,based on some of the things you’ve just said you should be aware of how different the future will be from the past. If you’ve not done so already read this.

        http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2048299,00.html

        Ray Kurtzweil who was recently hired by GOOGLE as their chief engineer, has some way out of the box thinking and now nearly unlimited resources to try to make those ideas happen.

        If only a small amount of his ideas come to fruition we could be moving into a future that looks absolutely unlike anything like we’ve seen before. Think the Internet on steroids.

        • David's avatar David Says:

          JP,
          I fully agree with what you stated in the last paragraph of your last comment (“If only a small amount…), and with joop’s comment posted at 12:12 am.

          That’s the future my friends.

          Catch up again tomorrow.

        • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

          I,am very well aware of the future and the possibility,s and also of the people who control this .

          The technological knowledge and other knowledge is gaining by the day , that is not the problem, the problem is that it is going to fast for the whole of human kind and that has open doors for a lets call it a elite group who control it.

          Some times whit good reasons and a lot of time for bad reasons, it is an evolutionary thing.

          That is what i mean with the break away society , the controllers , heading to a complete fascistic technocratic society .

          But ALL development has to become a part of the meme of the population otherwise it will not be sustainable and we are getting revolutions and perversity,s .

          That is why the techno development has to parallel with social development, the sad thing is that a big part of the world is not ready for it, how do we buy time to grow up to a higher plan , to a real human society where we can explore all our ability,s as a person , not only for the happy few but for all human kind.

          How can we concur our barbaric primitive behavior and change that in a kind of Manhattan project to find the answers on the why questions .

          Out of the box thinking is a kind of standard for me, but it is not really out of the box thinking, that is just a term used by people who not have ask enough WHY !

          Internet on steroids , they already trying to gain complete control over it, are you ready for you implanted chip ?

          Ready to give you over to the elite controllers ?

          Pry my mind out of my dead cold body !

          • David's avatar David Says:

            Yes joop,
            unfortunately that’s also how I see it.
            A dictatorial world government who controls the technology.
            Pretty scary to say the least.

            As I see it, the first step that should send all of us freedom lovers chills down our spines will be the day they implement the famous e-money.
            There and then we will all start to get fucked.

            Can you imagine what will happen when you loose the ability of touching physical money, and the bank or whichever other financial authority has all the power to do so?

            Nasty…

            Ok man, I will carry on tomorrow with this fascinating conversation.

            Good night.

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            Joop, I have nearly the sum total of all human knowledge available to me in the palm of my hand in the way of a smart phone and the Internet. Does that make me smarter than I was before the advent of such technology? I think it does. When we learn something it’s filed away in our brain. Later when we try to remember that information think about it, it’s like going through the files in our mind trying to access it. Is that any different than doing a Google sure looking through the files on the Internet? I think not. It was Einstein who said why memorize something that can be easily looked up.

            Will I become super smart if I have chip in my brain that lets me instantly access the total sum of human knowledge stored on the Internet. Yup, it does. Can you imagine what collaboration between super intelligent humans such a reality could bring about. Sounds like the singularity, and its nearer than you think.

          • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

            Nope, the complete understanding is not there and so the combining of that knowledge is impossible for you , it makes you just more confused , because you still do not have the basic knowledge about existence ( as i have not to )

            An infinity of information makes you not more intelligent, you have to be able to process that information, and that is exactly the weak point for an individual, a lot less for a collective what works together and is able to combine the processed information and spread it out in a practical understandable way .

            That is why that chip in your head will be linked to a central processing unit and you will be a borg , an artificial intelligent being whit a central processing unit.

            I like to skip that part of evolution and step up higher on the ladder , freed from the DNA jail and be able to roam free as an entity trough time space and get rid from all that primitive silicone chip shit .
            You have to put your goals a bit higher JP , otherwise you will not be able to be part of the free roaming galactic population and have to exist as a borg .

            So and now processing this information, are i teasing you now a bit ?
            or messing whit your brain ?

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            Ok , this is were the rubber meets the road. Good vs evil, utopian vs dystopian. There are those who are true optimist about our technological futures the Utopians, Ray Kurtzweil for example. There are those who fear a potential dystopian reality brought on by such technology, our friends Joop and David for example. Good vs Evil, back to square one. I guess it’s all just a matter of programming.

          • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

            JP you do not get it, i,am very optimistic about the technological ability of human kind, but a lot less about the controllers and the social impacts of the decisions of these controllers, power corrupts and endless power will corrupt endless.

            We human long to knowledge , that is programmed in our DNA as i stated before , that has nothing to do with good or evil, the use of this knowledge can be good or evil , and as it seems also programmed in our DNA that we are very well able to do evil if it give us the power to control other people .

            That is my point, not the technology .
            And that is why i tell you that we have to free ourselves from out primitive barbaric demands of our DNA ( by knowledge and even technology ) , technological development have to go more or less in the same paste as social development, otherwise the break away society will be become more and more powerful and will destroy the rest of human kind .

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            David I’m down with you on that electronic money thingy, one of my largest stock positions is PayPal. 😀

          • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

            Pay pall has big problems with Ebay at the moment !

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            David Joop this is for you both.

          • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

            Welcome to the machine !
            Are you another brick in the wall ?

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            Joop PayPal spun off from eBay a month or so back.

          • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

            I know it, and it is a disaster at the moment .

          • John Prophet's avatar John Prophet Says:

            Aw come on Joop, that was funny…

          • Peter Hofman's avatar joopklepzeiker Says:

            sorry i will made it good .

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dd_6ELWT7Rc

  3. Tyrannovar's avatar Tyrannovar Says:

    I read half the article without first looking to see who wrote it, but by half way through I knew it had to be Caroline. Lord that woman is logical.

    I think it must be an old African saying:
    “When the elephants fight, the ants get trampled”.

    Israel is an ant in the clash of Empires going on in the Middle East right now. But if Israel can avoid getting trampled long enough it might be able to take advantage of the coming chaos to eliminate the Palestinian problem once and for all. Daniel Greenfield advocates deporting the PLO. I’d go further, in the coming chaos there might be an opportunity to deport all Muslims from Gaza and the West Bank,after all, by now they’ve become a pain to the rest of the Muslim world too. Mr. Greenfield also advocates “De-Islamification” as the only solution to the Islam problem. Long term, that’s the only solution to the modern day eruption of Islam, but that means taking their oil. The US was too “holier than thou” to do what needed to be done there, but somehow I think that a country like China that happily murdered a hundred million of it’s own people will see that it has a better use for the oil than to see it squandered in eternal squabbling by a bunch of Muslim fanatics. Not only that, but Islam constitutes a threat to China itself, so China might want to cut the Muslims off at their oil supply.

    If Israel can survive as a national-ethnostate and help to eliminate Islam at the same time it will be a huge accomplishment and it will set a good example for the rest of the world.

  4. David's avatar David Says:

    joop,
    amen to your 02:36 message.
    The problem is not the technology (I’m totally in for it), but who controls it.

    JP,
    re your 02:45 one, yep, the minute you loose control over your cash, you’re in trouble.


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