WarSclerotic

In order to understand what could happen in 2015 it is important to carry out the analysis through the perspective of the past decades and even regard 2014 as a stand-alone year, a test case – nothing more.

The year 2014 also evolved as a year that represents the broadest common denominator in the world generally and in the Middle East and Israel in particular. That common denominator is the phenomenon of uncertainty and surprise developments. When I refer to “surprises” it is not my intention to claim that only national leaders and decision makers are “taken by surprise”. What I have in mind is that in view of the actual results, looking back – whether I am a national leader or an ordinary citizen – we can honestly say: “In all honesty, we never anticipated that or thought that’s how it would happen.”

If we had attempted to predict, a year ago, what the end of this year (2014) would be like, it is doubtful whether anyone would have hit the mark, even if he had access to what ISA and/or Israeli Military Intelligence knew at the time. In effect, the State of Israel and the range of difficulties with which it has to cope is a mirror image of all of the occurrences in the Middle East and around the globe.

In recent years we have experienced in our region the famous “Spring of Nations”, whose manifestations were the rise of radical Islamist organizations and the emergence of ungoverned areas (UGA). Additionally, the simmering pot that is the Gaza Strip and the ever glowing embers of Hezbollah and its satellite organizations in Lebanon and Eastern Syria are still there, as always.

The reader has already gathered by now that it is not my intention to address specific events. Instead, I intend to address their implications on the future on the one hand, and equally importantly – how they reflect on us, in terms of the endless ritual (“spiral of challenges”) involving the aspects of operational readiness and competence, along with political and international leverages, in our daily routine as a state, and particularly on the defense and security organizations charged with the task of safeguarding our homeland in conjunction with all of our intelligence agencies.

So, what factors derived from the range of threats and operational challenges around us shape our defense and security?

It is important to view that range of threats as a multiple-theater vector that keeps developing under slightly different characteristics. It is geographically and organizationally biased, but has a very broad common denominator that produces, for all of the world’s classic states including Israel, a significant security challenge. That challenge is the endless struggle against small, threatening molecules, dispersed over different geographic spaces and jointly weaving a disturbing cobweb that threatens various elements within the states. On the other hand, when those states go out of their own territories in order to crush that threat, they will encounter anything but regular, structured military fighting forces or state assets. This actually means that various sorts of scattered and unrelated phenomena that were elements of different conflicts here and there over the last decades have amalgamated into one solid mass of threats and challenges for many countries around the world. This is not a passing phenomenon but a solid fact that strikes deeper and deeper roots.

By the end of 2014 and going into 2015, the State of Israel is engaged in about 7 circles of conflict, with varying intensity levels, at the same time: in the Judea & Samaria district, the third Intifada (“The Jerusalem Intifada”?) is on the way. In the Gaza Strip, Operation Protective Edge has just ended – when will the next round take place? In Lebanon, Hezbollah has remained a “glowing ember” – when will it develop into a fire again? Syria has evolved into an ungoverned area and a habitat for Global Jihad – when will it strike us? On the Israeli-Egyptian border, the security fence project has been effective for the time being – how long will it remain effective? Iran, the “third circle” with its nuclear program, has been regarded as the No.1 threat until recently. Global jihad means international terrorism against Jewish institutions all over the world (Burgas, Mumbai, Brussels, et al.). All of the radical Jihadist organizations and their various factions are gaining strength, with the various branches of ISIS and, naturally, Al-Qaeda, occupying center stage.

The End of Classic Wars

The kind of warfare we have faced for a number of years now is not asymmetrical warfare. It is not a phenomenon – it is a reality, a fact for which we should prepare – with consciousness preparation being out topmost priority.

The era of classic wars is over. If such wars ever recur, they will be regarded as a new phenomenon at this time, while the kind of warfare that is common everywhere around the globe is the current warfare. This is by no means an occurrence that is likely to fade away. On the contrary – it will consolidate itself further as the threats with which we cope set forth a fundamentally different warfare pattern. It will be wrong to devote a separate chapter in the various military courses where guerrilla organizations, what they plan and what they do, etc. are being analyzed. These are the primary, dominating chapters, the main compass for the build-up of force in all of the world’s military organizations including IDF. Accordingly, we must not look at the reality-shaping operations in the Gaza Strip (Operation Pillar of Defense, Operation Cast Lead and Operation Protective Edge) and say: “Well, these were localized and non-characteristic conflicts, and we should not draw any conclusions from them with regard to other places as they only apply to the Gaza Strip as a specific, localized case” – that would be a serious mistake.

The various operations in the Gaza Strip, including the events of Operation ‘Shuvu Achim’ (the military operation pursuant to the kidnapping and murdering of the three Jewish youngsters in the Judea and Samaria in June 2014) should be regarded as events that will become increasingly more frequent, not because the opponent has just decided that this is what they are going to do until the next full-scale war, but rather as a clear understanding that this will be the form of the present conflict in the coming decades.

To the best of my understanding, the deceptive reality of 2014 will continue to produce local surprises and flare-ups of various types, along with the increasing probability of a higher intensity confrontation opposite Hezbollah in Lebanon. This will not necessarily happen, but is definitely likely to materialize, and then we will find ourselves, once again, engaged in combat in areas saturated with uninvolved civilians, trying to cope with the evolving phenomena of the subterranean medium. We will definitely experience steep trajectory attacks into central Israel, except there is nothing new about this particular threat. In addition, I fear, however, that they will attempt to damage our fundamental airspace defense capabilities by intensively employing unmanned vehicles, extensive and sophisticated cyber warfare and other means.

Additionally, as long as we’re referring to Hezbollah, one cannot ignore the various empowerment processes this organization has undergone since the Second Lebanon War. Accordingly, we must not be surprised if we find ourselves being attacked by sizable ground forces – even up to an infantry brigade – inside Israeli territory, in the areas close to the northern border.

But even if a confrontation against Hezbollah does not materialize, a confrontation along the eastern border, facing Syria, will present a substantial, large-scale operational challenge possessing various characteristics that will require an extremely high level of preparedness on our part. Our ground forces will be required to further expand and hone their capabilities and competence so that they can effectively engage in dense, close-range combat in the midst of uninvolved civilians.

The world of natural and man-made obstacles will expand and challenge us with booby-traps, subterranean systems and other “goodies”. In addition to the ground forces, there is no doubt that safeguarding the national airspace and retaining our naval superiority, air superiority and equally importantly – cyber superiority, will continue to be major objectives of our force build-up process as well as primary criteria for operational battlefield effectiveness.

Any confrontation on one front could – and is highly likely to – ignite other and/or additional sectors. Accordingly, we should prepare (and there is nothing new about this either) for fighting on more than one front and/or in more than one theater.

In my estimate, 2015 will prove to be the continuation of 2014. On the one hand, everything appears to be calm, but on the other hand – anything is likely and possible. In the era of social media and global jihad, the law of connected vessels of terrorism is working overtime. Consequently, at any given moment, a terrorist organization in some territory is poised to attack and terrorize us.

The supreme imperative at this time, just like in the past, is not to prepare for the past but for the future. The future is not always clear or predictable, and for this purpose we should develop “toolboxes” that offer adaptability and flexibility to the maximum extent possible. The State of Israel is hard at work building its layouts, and should persist with the build-up of a force that would match the reality we face. .

Our toolboxes must be filled with modern tools that are relevant to the present reality and to the reality we will face in the future. 

Colonel (res.) Atai Shelach is a former senior officer in the IDF Combat Engineering Corps. Among other positions, he served as the commander of the YAHALOM Unit, as the commander of the IDF Dignitary Protection Unit and as the commander of the IDF CBRN Warfare Center. Today, he is the CEO of the Engineering Solutions Group (ESG).