WarSclerotic

Analysis: A new wakeup call for Israel

The rebel takeover of the Syrian Golan shows how changing events affect Israel’s security doctrine

Twelve hours after Israelis sighed in relief as the ceasefire in the Gaza war appeared to take hold, they awoke Wednesday morning to realize that a new source of concern had emerged on their northern border. Syrian opposition forces, after fierce battles with the Syrian army, had taken over Syria’s Quneitra border crossing with Israel on the Golan Heights.

The crossing is the only official gate between Syria and Israel, manned by the United Nations Disengagement Observation Force since the end of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Reports that the Nusra Front – Islamists identified with al-Qaida and supported by Saudi Arabia and Qatar – were the ones who had seized control of the area only increased Israeli concern. That concern was somewhat eased hours later, when new reports suggested that the secular unit of the Free Syrian Army was in control of the crossing, rather than the fundamentalist Muslim group.

Nevertheless, the incidents in Quneitra are a wake-up call for Israel, demonstrating how the changing events in the Middle East, from the advances of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, to turmoil in Libya and the Gaza war, are affecting old Israeli security doctrines and stability.

For three and a-half years, Israel tried to stay away from the Syrian civil war, having one ultimate interest in mind: maintaining security and stability on the border and preserving the daily routine of Israel’s rural communities in the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the Six Day War of June 1967. On occasion, Israel interfered in the war when its intelligence uncovered attempts by President Bashar Assad’s regime to supply weapons – mainly long-range Iranian or Syrian-made missiles – to Hezbollah as payment for the Shiite Lebanese movement’s support in fighting the rebels.

The Israeli Air Force attacked such supply convoys and weapons depots six times, but never claimed responsibility for the actions. This provided a deniability that also enabled the Syrian government to turn a blind eye to the blatant Israeli violations of its sovereignty and thus to avoid any need to retaliate.

In other instances, Israel responded with mild artillery fire whenever errant fire or mortars landed on the Israeli side of the border as a result of the clashes between opposition forces and the Syrian army. Israel believed it was thus preserving its deterrence vis-à-vis the Syrian government, without humiliating the Assad regime. But in the last year, the opposition forces – the Nusra Front and the Free Syrian Army – have taken over most of the Syrian army positions on the Golan areas bordering Israel. As of Wednesday, they control virtually all of the 100-kilometer area along the border.

In light of these evolving events, Israel has been reaching out to opposition forces to prevent them from turning hostile. It opened a field hospital on the border and has in the last year treated more than 1,000 wounded Syrian combatants and civilians. On the face of it, this is a humanitarian gesture, but it also helps Israel maintain good neighborly relations with the opposition forces in Syria, hoping to ensure that the border stays relatively calm.

Nevertheless, other hostile elements such as the Islamic State are also gaining strength in the region. These forces are small and insignificant in the parts of Syria near Israel, but hold a potential threat to the stability of what has been Israel’s quietest border for decades.

At the same time, these and other regional events in Iraq and Kurdistan also provide an opportunity for new alliances. It was revealed this week that Iran is supplying Iraqi Kurdish authorities with ammunition and weapons to repel the IS. Israel, a traditional ally of the Kurds, is also still assisting them in the security and military field. For the first time since 1979, when Iran overthrew the Shah and became an Islamic republic which termed Israel the “small Satan,” the two countries find themselves supporting the same side on one of the Middle East’s major fronts.

Israel may now be having second thoughts, too, about events in Syria and might prefer – maybe even passively support – that the Assad regime remain in power despite the fact that its long-sworn enemies, Iran and Hezbollah, are allied with Damascus.

Yossi Melman is an Israeli security and intelligence commentator and co-author of “Spies Against Armageddon: Inside Israel’s Secret Wars”.

This entry was posted on August 28, 2014 at 7:02 PM and is filed under Syria war. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.