WarSclerotic

Gaza is still beyond the fence
By Yoav Limor Date August 15, 2014 Via Israel Hayom

Israeli soldiers rest on a Merkava tank while patrolling near the border. Demilitarization of the Gaza Strip will continue to be the focus of the talks, alongside Hamas’ demands for a seaport. | Photo credit: AP

(Meanwhile, back at the ranch.-LS)

Only a handful of people in Israel really know how close the Israel Defense Forces came Tuesday night to staging another ground incursion into the Gaza Strip. The orders were given, the troops were briefed, and everyone was in the right frame of mind, as just hours earlier, the Israeli delegation to Cairo had returned empty handed.

(No surprise there.-LS)

The stalled negotiations spelled only one thing: fighting was about to resume on the ground. It was the main lesson from the prior cease-fire, in which Israel faltered on all fronts. Hamas perceived Israel as wary of fighting, and the residents of the Israeli communities along the Gaza border perceived the government as unable to ensure their security.

The blow dealt to Israel’s deterrence was immense, and it seemed that Hamas, with its 15,000 operatives, had made a mockery of the most powerful military in the Middle East.

It is still unclear what brought the escalation to a halt on Tuesday night. It could have been an Egyptian ultimatum presented to the Palestinian Authority, or maybe it was the Palestinians’ own understanding that Israel could not afford to embark on another round of futile fighting.

(Or maybe it was Hamas getting its ass kicked.-LS)

The fact that the Palestinians ultimately agreed to extend the truce by an additional five days serves as a positive sign, indicating that they seek a lasting cease-fire agreement, rather than another escalation on the ground. Gaza’s rulers understand that Israel is nearing the end of its rope and that next time, IDF tanks will not make their way along the Strip from south to north, but rather cut across from east to west.

(Gee..you think they’re afraid they provoked Israel a bit too much?-LS)

We must, however, remember that Hamas is nobody’s fool, and that its delegates in Cairo are driving a hard bargain. Hamas’ political leader Khaled Mashaal continues his attempts to torpedo the Egyptian-brokered negotiations in favor of seeing Qatar and Turkey serve as mediators.

(Turkey and Qatar, now there’s a real formula for peace.-LS)

Hamas is also driven by strategic distress: It engaged in violence because it was stifled by the Gaza blockade and starved for funds to pay its employees, and now it cannot afford to bring the fighting to its end with nothing to show for the devastation it has brought on Gaza.

Hamas’ leaders also seem to believe that Israel’s position in the negotiations is pliable, given the disagreements in the cabinet.

The issue of Israel’s demand for the demilitarization of Gaza is one example for that. Israel has stated publicly that it would not settle for anything less than the full demilitarization of the Strip, but behind closed doors in Cairo, the demand was rephrased to mean preventing Hamas’ rearmament efforts, rather than stripping it from all of its military capabilities.

(Makes you wonder what else is going on behind these closed doors.-LS)

However, such a move does not require an extensive cease-fire agreement. Instead, a deal with Egypt to coordinate and collaborate on counter-smuggling efforts, accompanied by clear IDF orders to counter any rearmament or tunnel construction attempt west of the Israel-Gaza Strip border, could suffice.

Demilitarization will continue to be the focus of the talks in the coming days, alongside Hamas’ demands regarding a seaport, the crossings and wages’ funding. The issue of the return of the remains of IDF Staff Sgt. Oron Shaul and Lt. Hadar Goldin will also be discussed — perhaps in exchange for terrorists’ remains, as Israel has suggested, or in exchange for terrorists’ remains and several Hamas prisoners, as Hamas demands.

(Prisoner exchange…at what ratio..a 1000 to 1?-LS)

This potentially complex humanitarian issue might see a compromise by which Israel will not release any Hamas operatives, who were arrested during June’s Operation Brother’s Keeper in Judea and Samaria, but will release Hamas operatives arrested during the Gaza campaign.

One way or another there will be a cease-fire agreement, as it serves both parties’ interests. However, the negative and turbulent dynamics of the past few weeks, compounded by the intricate mediation efforts, have fostered doubts that are likely to see the military maintain its presence along the border for the foreseeable future.

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