Analysis: From a distance, Mashaal vetoes Gaza cease-fire proposal
Analysis: From a distance, Mashaal vetoes Gaza cease-fire proposal | JPost | Israel News.
07/16/2014 20:29
Hamas’s political bureau chief, Khaled Mashaal, has ordered his organization in Gaza to reject Israel’s truce offer, according to the latest evaluations in the Israeli defense establishment.
Mashaal, who is comfortably based in Qatar, far from the fighting, as well as two Hamas leaders in Gaza – Muhammad Deif, head of Izzadin Kassam, Hamas’s military wing, and Ismail Haniyeh, who heads Hamas’s political wing – are the triangle of decision-makers who plot the organization’s next moves.
According to assessments in Israel, Mashaal was the voice that ensured that Hamas continues to fire rockets at Israeli cities.
This despite the fact that Hamas has lost some 100 members, including senior field commanders, and that its offensive rocket-firing capabilities have sustained a serious blow in nine days of Israel Air Force strikes, each based on quality intelligence data.
Hamas lost many of its rocket-production facilities, more than a third of its rocket arsenal, and a series of command and control bases hidden in the homes of its battalion and brigade commanders.
Yet Hamas is keen on proving to Israel that it has retained its offensive capabilities and has not lost its will to use them to terrorize Israeli civilians. It has rejected the terms offered to it by Egypt, which, in Hamas’s view, have failed to address financial concerns (which go to the heart of Hamas’s ability to maintain power) and its need to pay its members in Gaza $20 million a month.
Hamas’s firepower has been rendered highly ineffective thanks to the advanced Iron Dome air-defense system. The terrorist organization’s carefully planned underground tunnel attacks, and naval raids, all ended in failure.
As a result, its ability to send millions of Israelis fleeing for cover and disrupt daily life here is the only semblance of a “victory” picture it has been able to achieve.
Now, it seems, Hamas wishes to drive home the point that it can continue doing this despite Israel’s devastating firepower. That creates considerable difficulties for Israel’s doctrine of deterrence.
Hamas’s own doctrine, designed for guerrilla-terrorist warfare, holds that the organization must be able to maintain rocket fire on Israel for at least two weeks, and it is five days short of achieving that goal, despite the misery it has brought to the civilian population of Gaza, which it uses mercilessly as a human shield.
Thus far, the IDF’s goal in this operation has not been to destroy all of Hamas’s rocket-firing capabilities but, rather, to inflict sufficient damage so that Hamas loses the incentive to stay in the ring or to return to it for years to come.
The fact that Hamas has chosen to keep going, despite bleeding profusely, is a challenge to the deterrence doctrine – a challenge that is being carefully watched by Hezbollah in Lebanon, whose rocket arsenal dwarfs that of Hamas.
This appears to leave little option for Israel but to proceed to stage two of its operation. Stage two is not limited to the goal of reinstating Israeli deterrence. Rather, it is aimed at systematically destroying Hamas’s assets and ability to attack Israel. The use of ground forces is an intrinsic component in realizing this goal.
While guided air force missiles can do much, Israel will not fire them if dozens of civilians in an apartment building are being used by Hamas to protect rocket launchers and senior Hamas leaders.
Additionally, air power has its limitations against the growing threat of tunnels. Hamas has dug a network of bomb-filled tunnels around the border area with Israel, and plans to use them to infiltrate the South, massacre civilians, and attack military positions.
The deployment of ground forces is itself a phased process. The broader the military operation against Hamas becomes, the more Israel’s goal shifts from deterrence to outright military victory over Hamas.
The experience of Israel’s military planners tells them that toppling the Hamas regime, while emotionally satisfying to many Israelis fed up with being terrorized, is not necessarily in Israel’s long-term strategic interests. It remains far from clear who might replace Hamas, and Gaza could turn into a Somalia-like strip of land filled with Islamic State militias that cannot be deterred at all.
Nevertheless, if Hamas continues to push the envelope, it may force Israel to not only launch a limited ground operation but, eventually, to expand it and go all the way, uprooting the whole of Izzadin Kassam from Gaza. This process could take up to two years.
Once the IDF is ordered by the government to initiate the second stage of the operation, Hamas will lose the ability to seek an end to the conflict. If it continues to rain down rockets on Israel, it might end up losing its military wing altogether, and whatever concerns over who might replace it would become secondary to the IDF’s obligation to silence the rockets.
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WarSclerotic 
July 16, 2014 at 8:08 PM
I keep reading these articles saying Hamas wants this, Hamas wants that.
They are all wrong.
The rockets being fired against Israel from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria are sent at the direction of Iran.
Ali Khamenei is the one calling the shots here.
July 16, 2014 at 8:34 PM
If this is so (and I believe it is), then why doesn’t Bibi call them out. It’s far past the time when Tehran should be put on notice and held directly responsible for their proxy actions.
Bibi could say to Tehran: “We know you’re behind these missile attacks on Israel and they must stop immediately. Therefore any more missile attacks will be regarded as originating from Tehran.”
July 16, 2014 at 9:47 PM
Its actually Putin thats who calls the shots with iran and all of whats going on is typical of past Soviet deceptions and provocation,The Russians have a special named for the strategy provokatsiya this is why people are taking there time as this is chess and a miscalculation will be devastating ,It sis the cold war MK 11,Isis Ukraine Syria the china sea are just the starting moves its designed to over extend the west by forcing pressure on different points,its not going to plan and will end in at least two country’s total bankruptcy and maybe even worse,Thats why is so all out of the blue I was not if you knew which direction to look in and what to look for,and theirs more to come,All of whats going on in the world at this moment is conected and part of a long startergy
July 16, 2014 at 10:14 PM
Regardless, Israel must deal with the immediate threat and do what’s necessary to make it stop, not matter who’s behind the attacks. Where it goes from here is up to the enemy and their enablers. Israel must do what Israel must do. Israel cannot be condemned to absorb missile attacks for fear of upsetting other countries.
Is there a long term strategy? Probably. However, it’s much more obvious that Israel is being provoked into something far worse. I have to believe that Mossad and the rest of the gang are on top of this possibility and are fully aware of what’s going on.
July 17, 2014 at 1:00 AM
Its being done cautiously,We all agreed that this could be something else,so i think its being handled the right way,This not a computer game the right people will act at the right time,When there sure.