It’s a Sabotage
It’s a Sabotage. foreignpolicy.com
Iran’s hard-liners are using mass executions to undermine the nuclear deal.
BY Ryan Costello , Trita Parsi
MARCH 14, 2014
Negotiations between Iran and the world powers will determine not just the future of Iran’s nuclear program, but also whether moderate forces can consolidate their tentative hold on power and shape the country’s direction for years to come. If Iranian President Hassan Rouhani secures a nuclear deal that delivers sanctions relief and boosts the economy, he will validate his argument that reconciliation with the outside world benefits Iran and unlock the possibility of far-reaching domestic reform. If the talks fail, however, hard-liners will have the ammunition they need to undercut the new president and shift the political pendulum back in their favor.
With so much at stake, Iran’s hard-liners are determined to sabotage Rouhani at every turn. Their latest effort appears aimed at spoiling the international community’s appetite for diplomacy: In a deeply troubling turn, Iran’s judiciary — which is not under the control of the Rouhani administration — has dramatically increased the number of executions in the country. At least 500 people were executed last year, according to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, while at least another 176 have been hanged so far in 2014.
Rouhani has thus far insulated himself from criticism on nuclear negotiations by gaining the backing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. While Khamenei is more closely aligned with the hard-liners and is skeptical of diplomacy, his shift can be partially attributed to the need to shore up political legitimacy in the wake of the stolen 2009 presidential election and subsequent crackdown on Green Movement activists. If Khamenei openly denied the Iranian people’s will yet again, he would risk deepening political fissures that could threaten the survival of the regime. Instead, the supreme leader has gone along with Rouhani’s diplomacy, gambling that he will either be credited with helping secure a nuclear deal, or that the negotiations will collapse and the West will impose new sanctions, giving him an excuse to rein in Rouhani and his moderate allies.
Rather than directly challenge Rouhani — and by extension Khamenei — on the nuclear issue, the hard-liners have instead worked to stymie domestic reform. Overcoming their obstruction will likely depend on striking a nuclear deal that strengthens moderate forces and vindicates the new president’s leadership. If the threat of war remains, hard-liners will be able to further perpetuate Iran’s security-dominated political atmosphere in order to hinder domestic reform. Similarly, if sanctions continue, middle-class Iranians that could form the core of a democratic movement will continue to bear the brunt of the country’s economic plight.
Iran’s hard-liners have bet their political future on the hope that the international community will fall into their trap.
Iran’s hard-liners have bet their political future on the hope that the international community will fall into their trap. The spike in executions — which frequently target alleged drug offenders, as well as political opponents and religious minorities — has been overseen by the head of the judiciary, Sadeq Larijani. The Larijani family represents a formidable political bloc in Iran: Sadeq and his four brothers all hold prominent positions in Iran’s political establishment. Sadeq’s brother Ali currently heads Iran’s parliament, which is also dominated by hard-liners, ensuring that the Larijanis exert a powerful influence over two very powerful institutions.
But if Rouhani is successful and fulfills many of his campaign promises, moderates have a strong shot at winning the parliamentary elections in 2016 and booting Ali Larijani from his speakership. Hence, the Larijanis and their hard-line allies have added motivation to ensure that Rouhani fails. The Iranian people, unfortunately, are suffering the consequences.
If Rouhani openly takes on the conservatives over human rights abuses, he will have opened a new front in this political war — but one in which he does not enjoy Khamenei’s support. This in turn could overextend his political capital and limit his ability to get a nuclear deal. If he chooses to deprioritize human rights and stay silent in the face of these abuses — which appears to be the case — the situation is likely to deteriorate even further, and the Green Movement veterans and reformist-oriented voters, who make up an important portion of his base, will be jeopardized.
The rising number of executions also presents the world community with a dilemma. If the United States and Europe use the human rights violations as a justification to punish Iran with sanctions, the hard-liners will get their excuse to end nuclear negotiations. But if the world ignores the abuses, the hard-liners may further intensify the violations to beget a response.
This balancing act will be difficult for both the Rouhani government and the international community. Ignoring the human rights abuses cannot be an option, nor can cancellation of diplomacy. In the near term, diplomats can shine a spotlight on these abuses and push for them to stop — if the international community specifically calls out the conservative-controlled judiciary as the responsible party, the hard-liners will be put on the defensive. Their effort to pass the responsibility for their abuses to the moderates will have failed.
In this process, dialogue is a far more effective method of pressure than threats. European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton’s recent trip to Iran serves as a prominent example. While nuclear negotiations were the primary purpose of her trip, Ashton pressed Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on human rights and was able to meet with Iranian women’s rights activists at the Austrian Embassy. The world also has other avenues of highlighting abuses and pressing for change: U.N. Special Rapporteur for Human Rights Ahmed Shaheed just issued a new report outlining concerns with the human rights situation in Iran, and should continue his important work.
This balancing act also shows the importance of reaching a nuclear accord — and doing so quickly. The sooner a nuclear deal is struck, the sooner the hard-liners’ trap will fall apart.
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WarSclerotic 
March 16, 2014 at 1:39 AM
Nice article but there is a tiny little problem.
There is no evidence that Rouhani is a moderate. None.
On the contrary there is evidence that he is a hardliner. There is irrefutable evidence that he has been a part of the mullah regime from its very early stages. Not only that but he was an important figure of the regime.
He took decions and called for measures that were anything but moderate.
The authors of the articles either live in lala land or they are deceivers.
This article reminds me of the countless articles and opeds which called for the support of the ‘Palistinian moderates’.
well, we know what happened with them.
The authors demonstrate an irrational way of judging reality.
One can come to two different conclusions why Rouhani keeps silent on the executions and human rights violations.
Either he is a moderate in disguise who keeps silent for tactical reasons or he is a hardliner who is putting up a smiling face and speaks nice soothing words to the world to deceive it.
Looking at his background, you be the judge which conclusion is the rational one.
I quote from an interesting article which deals exactly with this topic.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/02/is_hassan_rohani_a_moderate_or_a_ruthless_murderer.html
Is Hassan Rohani a Moderate or a Ruthless Murderer?
By Manda Zand Ervin
The meetings, talks and negotiations with the new “moderate” Iranian president is continuing in Europe. President Obama and Secretary Kerry are insisting that the new moderate president of Iran will abide by the rules set by the Western powers of 5+1. They are say he can be trusted to fight the hard-liners among the Islamic clerics in Iran and create conditions for better relations.
However, according to his background, history, and political attitude during the last 30 years, President Rohani is everything but moderate. A woman puts forward this argument from inside Iran:
Unfortunately, it seems that Americans want to support Rouhani, and so the title of “moderate” is bestowed on him. In fact, he is far from being a new figure. We know him quite well, and his record shows that he is far from being a “moderate” who wants to make friends with America.
President Hassan Rohani has always been an anti-American hard-liner and extremely active in the Iranian hierarchy. He has been a leader in both final decision-making organizations, the Expediency Council since 1991, and the Assembly of Experts since 1999.
From 1989 to 2005, Rouhani was the Secretary General of the National Security Council of the Islamic regime. In fact, he is one of the founding members of the dreaded security and intelligence services, a brutal paramilitary force, established to crush all oppositions.
The campaign of 1991-1992 to assassinate over a hundred opposition leaders across Europe, including former Prime Minister Shapoor Bakhtiar, was carried out during his reign. The 1998, massacres of about 80 intellectuals, known as the “chain murders,” during the presidency of the former “moderate” President Khatami took place under Mr. Rouhani’s charge of the National Security and intelligence Services.
He has been the secretary-general of the High Council on National Security who orchestrated the crushing of student revolts in 1999, killing, imprisoning, and torturing thousands of students, and ruthlessly suppressed the labor movement to establish independent trade union in 2001.
Given his very clear stance against the protesters during the 2009 post-fraudulent election uprising and the mass arrests, imprisonments, tortures and killings that ensued, it is a bitter pill for the citizens of Iran for the American government to give him the title of “moderate”.
Let us remind America that the “moderate” President Rohani’s vice president is one of the hostage takers of the American diplomats in 1979-80 and his minister of Defense is another hostage holder.
In a recent speech, Rohani demanded that agents of the national security intelligent services to be more aggressive with the people that he calls the enemies of the Islamic revolution. During his seven months as president, there has been an execution spree around the country. Over 600 people, 28 of them women, have been executed.
They have rounded up and arrested scores of people. In addition, the so-called moderate President Rohani has ordered the arrests of a large number of activists of the independent trade unions. He has revoked the licenses of more than 20 publications and has arrested 14 magazine editors.
March 16, 2014 at 6:18 PM
Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.