WarSclerotic

Gloom is overtaking hope in U.S. President Barack Obama’s outlook on the Middle East. The chances of solving the problems of the region — including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — are “less than fifty-fifty,” Obama told The New Yorker magazine. If this is the case, what is there left for U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to do on the Jerusalem-Ramallah axis?

It is not clear why Obama expressed such public pessimism. Does he really believe what he said? Is he creating an alibi for the expected failure of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations? Was it a sophisticated ruse to try get both sides to summon up the strength to prove to him that his assessment of the future of the negotiations was wrong?

The necessary conclusion is that when the talks reach their end, there will not be an agreement on the table, but rather the recurring question from all previous rounds of talks — who is to blame for the failure?

It seems, based on Obama’s rather pessimistic outlook, that there is logic to former National Security Adviser Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror’s comments in the New York Times on the ongoing unrest in the Arab world. Amidror said that Israel has adopted a new strategy called “Wait, and keep the castle.” The Arab world is experiencing a series of earthquakes and what else can Israel do except button down and wait for its neighborhood to calm down and stabilize?

It appears that there is a much higher chance that when the talks with the Palestinians conclude, both sides will be playing the blame game rather than discussing a flourishing peace agreement. A main arena in the battle to come will be the European boycott of the Israeli economy.

The boycott campaign is conducted by enemies of Israel, who are helped by some Jews from the inside. Up to now, the Palestinians have tried all other means of fighting Israel. After Israel overcame regular Arab armies, the Palestinians turned to terror attacks. Israel was able to curb and stop Palestinian terror as well, but not before more than 1,000 Israelis were killed. The Palestinians then turned to rockets and missiles, and Israel also found an effective response. So now the Palestinians have changed direction again, toward the economic boycott path.

This is the most dangerous battle of all. Because Israel will not only be facing an array of Arab opponents, but also supposed friends, stricken with hypocrisy. They will also have partners inside Israel for their campaign. Israel’s enemies will even try to use the Israelis who, with the best of intentions, are going to the World Economic Forum in Davos to represent the Israeli economy. Israel will have to fight this battle on a number of fronts.

The extreme Right is calling for further settlement construction and Economy and Trade Minister Naftali Bennett claims that the establishment of a Palestinian state would destroy the Israeli economy. Such statements do nothing but encourage the Europeans to boycott the Israeli economy. The establishment of a Palestinian state is the apple of Europe’s eyes. At the same time, the extreme Left is cooperating with those who seek to undermine the legitimate demands of the Israeli government in the peace talks with the Palestinians. For example, former Knesset speaker Avraham Burg, who wears a kippah and voted in the French elections, has no desire for Israel to remain a Jewish state.

Obama believes that at the end of the talks, there will not be an agreement, but rather recriminations. Israel must appear to be interested in reaching an agreement, so that it will have a chance of having the world’s understanding when the negotiations inevitably fail.

The eyes of all Western nations, particularly of their economic officials, will be on Israel’s conduct this week in Davos.