Josh Rogin reports: “In an interview with Iranian television, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator says Tehran can resume enriching uranium to 20 percent levels within one day if it so desires. Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Abbas Araghchi, said this week that if Iran decides to resume enriching uranium to levels prohibited by the new nuclear deal, it could begin to do so in one day’s time.” There are several take-aways from this.
President Obama speaks by phone with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (Pete Souza for the White House via Agence France-Press)
First, Iran can’t resist humiliating the president and boasting that it has gotten the better of President Obama. In making a deal that lifts sanctions and provides for ephemeral limits on nuclear activities, Obama has proven Iranian President Hassan Rohani right once again: The United States can be lulled into a sweetheart deal.
I’ve long maintained that what the administration fears more than the conditional sanctions that would go into effect if Iran cheats or doesn’t reach a final deal is the outline of what is an acceptable final deal. So long as it is clear and generally accepted what the bare-minimum deal can be, Obama is prevented from making a final deal that is incomplete or reversible — one, in other words, that allows Iran to keep its enrichment capability and centrifuges. Discrediting in advance the Obama end-game in a sense has already occurred. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Dems have already let it be known that a “keep your enrichment” deal will be unacceptable and hence trigger either U.S. sanctions (or possibly Israeli action).
Moreover, we see now how Obama’s policy has morphed into containment. He’ll be happy to let Iran keep all it needs to reignite its nuclear capability in a day or a week, lift sanctions and declare success. That leaves Iran with its nuclear capability. How would we “contain” Iran at that point? We aren’t containing Iran now. In fact, it is using the threat of failures to rub our noses in the deal and heighten its support for Hamas, make a show of solidarity with terrorists and bolster Iran. We do nothing because Obama is afraid to “blow the deal.” Imagine then how tentative he will be when there is “peace in our time” with an Iranian regime only a screw-turn away from a nuclear bomb.
Pressure may finally get to the Senate majority leader for a vote. The six months may run with no deal in Geneva. Either way, a sanctions vote becomes unavoidable. But then again the Dems could lose the Senate; then there is no more stalling and no flunky like Harry Reid to gum up the works on sanctions. As with immigration reform and so many other things, if the Dems see a thumping coming up in November they might just get reasonable; 2014 could be the last year of the Obama presidency in which Congress can run interference for him.
WarSclerotic 
January 17, 2014 at 3:25 PM
Reblogged this on BPI reblog and commented:
Iran reminds us: Obama’s deal is a fraud – Wash Post
Obama himself is a fraud.
January 17, 2014 at 4:09 PM
It’s obvious Obama and Kerry are weaving a political net around Israel to, first and foremost, prevent Israeli unilateral action against Iran. Are they pursuing a containment policy against Iran? I think not. It’s more like a containment policy against Israel.
http://www.debka.com/article/23599/Putin-to-visit-Tehran-King-of-Morocco-invites-Iran-to-“Jerusalem-Committee”-–-with-Kerry’s-approval
January 17, 2014 at 8:18 PM
Bottom line:
Since Obavez will never use military force against Iran he has only two options.
1. Accept ANY deal no matter how bad.
2. Accept the failure of his diplomacy.
If he chooses #2 he will expose himself once more as a liar because he would not use the military option. Everyone, and especially the Iranians know that all that talk about Obavez having a military option was a lie.
As I said more than a year ago, he was telling us the truth when he said that he has no policy of containment.
He has got no clue how to contain Iran. Neither does he have any strategy to achieve this. Neither does he care about Iran getting nukes.
Choosing option #2 would expose him once again as a liar because not only does he not have a strategy of containment but he has also no strategy of prevention as he told us.
That’s why Obavez will choose option #1.
Anyway, the nuclear deal is only a side show. The real goal is rapprochement, which simply means that Obavez hopes that by making peace with the mullahs he can get rid of the Middle East problems.
It is of no big concern to him whether the Iranians got nukes or not or who he has to throw under the bus to achieve this.
The fact that he has to throw Israel under the bus is a coincidence. But for him it is a happy coincidence because he has no big love for the Jews (to put it mildly).
Some try to rationalize this desastrous policies as a brilliant geopolitical strategy but it is not.
If there is any strategic thinking, it’S the thinking that this policy helps to solve the problem which supposedly causes all the troubles in the region. The Israeli/’Palestinian’ problem.
In that warped thinking the Israelis are unwilling to make peace and (suicidal) concessions because they have too much strength.
And so, weakening Israel while strengthening its adversaries would give the Israelis additional motivation to seek for a peace deal.
Of course this view completely ignores the hate and the genocidal wishes of Israel’s adversaries.
This thinking is best expressed in Kerry’s remark “People in Israel aren’t waking up every day and wondering if tomorrow there will be peace because there is a sense of security and a sense of accomplishment and of prosperity.”
In other words: Only if the Israelis live in misery and feel threatened they will be willing to make peace.