WarSclerotic

Israel Hayom | The French connection.

Boaz Bismuth

Speaking during his visit on Sunday, French President François Hollande said exactly what Israel wanted to hear: “We will never agree to Iran possessing a nuclear weapon because this is not only a threat to Israel, but to the whole world.”

In Hebrew, the French president added: “I will always remain a friend of Israel’s.” Perhaps it’s easier now to understand why, just two days before talks in Geneva resume, France remains Israel’s last hope for an acceptable deal.

Jerusalem understands that, at the end of the day, France still wants to sign a deal. And while that deal is definitely not the one that emerged at the latest round of talks in Switzerland, France nonetheless wants a deal where diplomacy trumps the military option, an option raised again on Sunday by one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s closer associates as of late, Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror.

Jerusalem knows the international community wants a deal. So, even if they haven’t admitted it yet, officials in Jerusalem have been hard at work with France and other partners to minimize damage in the next round, especially if the sides come close to inking a deal. The most important thing to Israel now is securing a deal that is slightly less worse.

On Sunday, French newspaper Le Figaro reported on an Israel Hayom poll published last Friday showing that two thirds of Israelis are opposed to the current deal. France understands how it is that “Bibi and Hollande became such good friends so fast,” (Le Parisien).

France’s stubbornness during the previous round in Geneva — which managed, according to French media, to seriously peeve U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry — may have successfully removed the threat of the Arak heavy water reactor, adding that to the deal. But that’s not the only thing.

One wonders what could become of Iran’s 185 kilograms (410 pounds) of 20 percent enriched uranium, which worries the French as well. The French probably will not budge on that issue. There is also Tehran’s demand to continue low-level uranium enrichment, something Iran sees as its legitimate right. Some analysts have said that would be the West’s compensation to Iran within the framework of the current deal. The big question is, compensation for what?

Concluding Hollande’s trip to Israel, we can see four likely French conditions for signing off on a deal with the Iranian negotiators in Geneva. First, Iran must transparently prove that its nuclear program is not for military purposes. Of this, Paris has yet to be convinced. Second, there must be international inspectors monitoring Iran’s nuclear sites. Third, Iran must stop enriching uranium to 20 percent, agreeing to break down its existing stockpiles. And fourth, Iran must stop building the reactor in Arak. Signed, François Hollande.

The Iranians have no choice but to capitulate because they so badly want a deal. A source close to the French foreign minister said he never saw the Iranians so eager to sign an accord. It would be interesting to know how the Iranians managed to overcome their discomfort with allowing international inspectors to scurry around among the Islamic republic’s various nuclear sites.

On Sunday, Netanyahu said Kerry was also expected to visit Israel this week, on Friday. The announcement immediately gave rise to speculation: Is Kerry coming to try and calm Israel down after a deal is already signed? Maybe he’s coming to update Israel on the details of the deal before it is ratified. The cynics say, after a bad deal is signed with the Iranians in Geneva, Kerry will come to Israel to see what else Jerusalem is prepared to concede, this time to the Palestinians in the peace talks.

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