WarSclerotic

In 1941, the U.S. and Japan were mired in a diplomatic crisis. The administration of then-U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt had imposed an embargo on the export of oil to Japan and froze Japanese assets in the U.S.

This led Japan to propose a six-month interim deal with the U.S. But it quickly became clear that this would not lead to the desired breakthrough, and it sank into oblivion.

The U.S. government’s determination to continue its policy of economic pressure until Japan changed its conduct put an end to the negotiations and paved the way for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941.

Today, 72 years after the outbreak of the war in the Pacific Ocean, the administration of President Barack Obama appears to have learned overly sweeping lessons from the pre-Second World War diplomatic efforts with Japan, as he has moved toward a policy of extreme appeasement toward Iran. Indeed, even if a breakthrough was not reached, the latest round of talks in Geneva showed America’s eagerness to reach a clearly asymmetrical interim deal with the Iranian government.

Under the deal being discussed, Iran would not even have to completely halt the enrichment of uranium. The continued low-level uranium enrichment would give legitimacy to Iran’s nuclear program and Iran would maintain a short path to nuclear weapons, should it decide to build them in the future.

The sanctions that would be lifted as part of the deal appear at first glance to be minor, but this step, if taken without getting anything significant from Iran in return, could create a new dynamic that would erode the effectiveness of the entire sanctions regime. This is because the atmosphere of conciliation, accompanied by some softening of the sanctions, would lead to the weakening of the multinational supervision of Iran.

After all, when the parties are already smiling on the path of dialogue, what motivation will central players in the process have to make sure that other punitive measures continue to remain in place?

Despite its tireless effort, the Obama administration has yet to translate its generous proposal to Iran into a new diplomatic reality. In the coming days, we will see if the Americans will continue to run amok toward a deal at any cost, or if it will learn lessons from the latest round of talks in Geneva.