WarSclerotic

WASHINGTON – Leaks from government officials in the US and Europe that Israel struck a Syrian military facility in Latakia last week indicate Western confidence that Syria’s president, Bashar Assad, will not retaliate.

Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that the country’s red line in war-torn Syria is the transfer of heavy arms to Hezbollah, which is operating extensively on behalf of Assad against rebels fighting for his ouster.

The US has consistently stated support for this policy under the umbrella principle by which Israel has a right to defend itself by itself. Classifying Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, the US and now the EU condemn its acquisition of such arms.

But the revelation that Israel’s targets were Russian-made missiles is a reminder that despite the deal brokered in September by Moscow that will rid Assad of his chemical arms, the Syrian civil war continues to pose significant strategic tensions among a host of parties with vested interests in its outcome.

Last week’s military strike will likely further strain efforts to salvage negotiations in Geneva between Assad and the rebels. Iran still refuses to endorse the Geneva Communique, a UN proclamation calling for a peaceful transition of power, and continues its efforts to smuggle anti-aircraft weaponry through Syria to Hezbollah-controlled territory in Lebanon.

With Assad coming out of the August chemical crisis intact – and with Washington, Moscow and Tehran generally satisfied with the resulting deal – no one will want to rock the boat with Israel by making an issue of the fact that its government follows through on its promises.

These strikes will continue sporadically, and the results will be the same: media blackout, tacit acceptance and efforts by the Iranians to quietly try, try again.