Analysis: Saudis standing up for US allies in Middle East
Analysis: Saudis standing up for US allies in Middle East | JPost | Israel News.
Saudi Arabia has reacted with unusual bluntness to US moves at rapprochement with the kingdom’s enemies in Tehran and Damascus, forcing President Barack Obama to either alter his stance or risk a breakdown in relations.
The Saudis are testing Obama, as they have seen how he tends to waver under pressure while trying to keep both sides happy.
And quietly, America’s traditional allies in the region – such as Egypt, Israel, Jordan and the Gulf states – are rooting for the Saudis.
The Saudis observed how Obama was willing to compromise and settle for a deal with Syria after he had called for President Bashar Assad’s removal from power two years ago. On Iran, Obama is warming to the country despite its involvement in terrorism, the fighting in Syria and its history of deception as it strives towards nuclear weapons.
The Saudis are starting to push back hard.
Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan told European diplomats that Riyadh is contemplating a “major shift” away from the US over Washington’s policies on a host of issues, including Syria.
That message reflected the views not just of Prince Bandar, a noted hawk on Middle East issues and outspoken former ambassador to Washington, but of King Abdullah and the rest of the Saudi leadership, diplomatic sources in the Gulf said.
While Saudi Arabia’s frustration with the US was real and has led it to explore alternatives to its 70-year dependence on their strategic alliance, nobody seriously thinks Saudi cooperation with Washington will cease, the sources said.
Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, who previously served as US deputy assistant secretary of defense and a senior director at the National Security Council, told The Jerusalem Post that the Saudis are upset that Obama is unwilling to take a stronger stance against the Iranian-Syrian alliance.
“The failure to support the Syrian rebels is a big part of the story, but the Saudis also see a general tilt in American policy in favor of Iran and away from the traditional allies of the United States,” said Doran.
Prof. Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA), told the Post that the Saudis are not the only ones bewildered by Obama’s conduct in the Middle East.
“Their exasperation with American weakness is clear.
Their fear of Washington striking a grand bargain with Tehran is evident.
Unfortunately, there is no real alternative to American involvement and the Saudis as well as others have no real other choice but to wait until Obama is gone,” said Inbar.
Amir Rapaport, a researcher at the BESA Center and editor-in-chief of Israel Defense magazine, told the Post that Israel believes the US is demonstrating that it cannot be counted on as an ally and that other countries in the region, such as Egypt, are looking elsewhere for support, such as with the Russians.
Brandon Friedman, a lecturer at Tel Aviv University and a researcher at its Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, told the Post that “there is not much the Saudis can do except demonstrate their extreme displeasure.” Friedman believes that in the medium-to-long term, the Saudis will probably try to get nuclear weapons and that it is more likely the Saudis will turn to China, rather than to Russia, for support.
In January 2012, the Saudis signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with China and from 1986-1988, they secretly imported Chinese made intermediate range ballistic missiles, under the nose of the Americans and in order to keep up with the Iranians. While there is a tendency by the media to blow things out of proportion, “the Saudis in the long-term are likely going to move towards some kind of more self-reliant regional security policy.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
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WarSclerotic 
October 24, 2013 at 1:15 PM
The yuan as new world currency backed by gold and china the new big partner in the middle east.
Fiction or not ?
October 24, 2013 at 5:16 PM
In the long term this might very well happen.
See my own article:
“… While Russia wants to decrease US influence and control in the region it wants to increase their own influence and control thereby increasing their power and control over the world economy.
And so it is very probable that Russia would seek such an alliance with the gulf states. This would give them the advantage of controlling the region as well as starting an arms race in which they sell arms to both sides thus keeping both parties dependent on them and making a lot of dollars in the process.
While such an alliance would be possible it is unlikely because China would be a much more natural partner for such an alliance.
The Chinese have the advantage that they are no allies of Iran and that their interests are more aligned with the interests of the gulf states.
In 2011 60% of the Chinese oil imports came from the gulf region. As a rising economic and military power with constantly increasing energy demand they would want to keep this energy supply safe and they would also want to increase their presence, influence and control in the region.
A similar although not exactly the same case makes Zachary Keck in his article ‘China and Iran: Destined to Clash?’ published in ‘The Diplomat’.
This undoubtedly would boost the Chinese on their way to becoming the worlds next superpower and would give them huge economic power and might also endanger the status of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency.
This in turn would drive the Iranians back into the arms of the Russians. We could see a Chinese/Russian rivalry in the region. Whether this would erupt in war or not I don’t know but it would keep the tensions and thus the price of oil high….”
October 24, 2013 at 5:19 PM
Also interesting in this regard:
The Diplomat: China and Iran: Destined to Clash?
http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/17/china-and-iran-destined-to-clash/
October 24, 2013 at 5:54 PM
losing on all fronts
http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/world/brazil-plans-to-go-offline-from-uscentric-internet/article5137689.ece
October 24, 2013 at 5:58 PM
Oil independence has his backlash as i stated several times
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/10/the-real-reason-for-saudi-shift-away-from-u-s.html