WarSclerotic

Iran could obtain a nuclear weapon as early as mid-2014, a U.S.-based expert told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week.

“If Iran’s centrifuge plants expand as currently planned, by the middle of 2014 these plants could have enough centrifuges to allow Iran to break out quickly, namely rapidly produce WGU [weapons-grade uranium] from its stocks of low enriched uranium,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in testimony before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee last Thursday.

This statement contradicts U.S. President Barack Obama’s remarks Saturday night that Iran remains a year or more away from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

According to Albright, in the event that his forecast is accurate, the International Atomic Energy Agency “would likely not detect this breakout until after Iran had produced enough WGU for one or two nuclear weapons.”

He also said that “the available evidence provides little reason to believe” Iranian President Hasan Rouhani’s insistence that Iran has never pursued or sought a nuclear bomb.

This assessment resonated in remarks made by Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Avigdor Lieberman on Saturday, who said that “all the world’s intelligence agencies know very well that no real or substantive change has occurred in Iran’s nuclear program.”

Speaking at an event in Beersheba, Lieberman went on to say: “There is not even a hint of a slowdown in their nuclear program. In my assessment, Israel is prepared to deal with the Iranian problem and provide all the necessary answers, even if we have to stand alone against the Iranians. It’s better to stand alone and stay alive than to bend over along with everyone else and get blown up. The game against Iran is not close to being finished. I am certain that at the end we will win.”

Meanwhile, in an interview with The Associated Press on Saturday, Obama remarked that “our assessment [of when Iran will obtain nuclear weapons] continues to be a year or more away. … In fact, actually, our estimate is probably more conservative than the estimates of Israeli intelligence services.”

“So we share a lot of intelligence with Israelis. I think Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu understandably is very skeptical about Iran, given the threats that they’ve made repeatedly against Israel, given the aid that they’ve given to organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas that have fired rockets into Israel. If I were the prime minister of Israel, I would be very wary as well of any kind of talk from the Iranians.”

“But what I’ve said to Prime Minister Netanyahu is that the entire point of us setting up sanctions and putting pressure on the Iranian economy was to bring them to the table in a serious way to see if we can resolve this issue diplomatically. And we’ve got to test that. We’re not going to take a bad deal. We are going to make sure that we verify any agreement that we might strike.”

“But it is very much in not only the United States’ interest but also Israel’s interest to see if we can resolve this without some sort of military conflict. And so we now have the time to have those serious conversations, and we’ll be able to measure how serious the Iranians are.”

Regarding Rouhani, Obama told AP that “well, here’s what we know: He was not necessarily the preferred candidate of some of the ruling clerics when he initially threw his hat into the ring. He won pretty decisively.”

“So what we know is that in the Iranian population at least there is a genuine interest in moving in a new direction. Their economy has been crippled by international sanctions that were put in place because Iran had not been following international guidelines, and had behaved in ways that made a lot of people feel they were pursuing a nuclear weapon,” Obama said.

“I think Rouhani has staked his position on the idea that he can improve relations with the rest of the world. And so far, he’s been saying a lot of the right things. And the question now is, can he follow through? The way the Iranian system works, he’s not the only decision maker — he’s not even the ultimate decision maker.”

“But if in fact he is able to present a credible plan that says Iran is pursuing peaceful nuclear energy but we’re not pursuing nuclear weapons, and we are willing to be part of a internationally verified structure so that all other countries in the world know they are not pursuing nuclear weapons, then, in fact, they can improve relations, improve their economy. And we should test that.”

Despite the variations in the time frame assessments regrading Iran’s nuclear bomb, an official in Netanyahu’s office said Saturday that Israel and the U.S. are on the same page regarding the need to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Obama and Netanyahu “see eye to eye on the need to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons,” the official said.

“The critical time that the prime minister refers to is not the time for completing production of a nuclear bomb but rather the time needed for Iran to complete enriching uranium, which is the most important component in preparing a nuclear weapon,” he said regarding the time frame issue.

“If Iran decides to complete enriching uranium it can do so within a few weeks of the start day,” he said on condition of anonymity, because he was not allowed to discuss the issue with the media.

Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to its very existence, citing Iran’s repeated calls for Israel’s destruction, its long-range missile program and its support for violent anti-Israel groups like the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran insists that its nuclear program is for civilian use.

“There is no reason why Iran, which claims it wants nuclear energy just for peaceful purposes, should maintain the ability to enrich uranium, which allows for the development of material necessary for building a bomb,” the Israeli official said.

Rouhani recently delivered a conciliatory speech at the United Nations in which he said Iran has no intention of building a nuclear weapon and declared his readiness for new negotiations with world powers.

At the end of the visit, Rouhani and Obama held a 15-minute phone call as the Iranian leader was traveling to the airport. It was the first conversation between the nations’ leaders in 34 years and raised hopes that a breakthrough on the nuclear issue could portend even deeper ties between the United States and Iran.

Netanyahu has greeted Rouhani’s outreach with deep skepticism, expressing fears that Iran will use upcoming nuclear talks as a ploy to get the world to ease painful economic sanctions while secretly pressing forward with its nuclear program.

In Iran, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the exchanges with Washington already have paid dividends by opening opportunities to negotiate a “win-win” nuclear deal that would allow Tehran to maintain its uranium enrichment but provide greater assurances the program remain peaceful.

But Iran has not yet given specifics on what it would offer in exchange for possible lifting of Western sanctions when nuclear talks with world powers resume later this month in Geneva.

Zarif also disputed Obama’s remarks to AP that Iran is more than a year from reaching the capacity to build a nuclear weapon. Zarif repeated Iran’s claims that it does not seek nuclear arms and urged the U.S. and its allies not to allow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to block potential progress in nuclear talks.

Earlier on Saturday, the Iranian foreign minister attacked Obama. Zarif said that the U.S. president had insulted the Iranian people by expressing suspicion of them. In a CNN interview, Zarif said that in a meeting with Netanyahu last week, Obama had used insulting language, adding, “I believe President Obama should, in fact, stick to his declared intention to deal with Iran on the basis of mutual respect.”

In addition, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei today addressed the renewal of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington. He said he was pessimistic in everything regarding the United States, and that he does not have faith in America as a negotiating partner. Khamenei added that he supports the Iranian president’s diplomatic efforts at the U.N., and nevertheless, some of the things said there were inappropriate.