Netanyahu has tough task of rebuilding a credible Israeli military option against Iran
Netanyahu has tough task of rebuilding a credible Israeli military option against Iran.
After Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu met with President Barack Obama at the White House Monday, Sept. 30, Secretary of State John Kerry carried a message requesting moderation in the speech he was to deliver next day to the United Nations.
On the other hand, at least two European diplomats, German and French, made the opposite request: they asked for a hard-hitting Israeli peroration for setting boundaries – not so much for Iran’s nuclear program as for attempt to slow down President Obama’s dash for détente with Tehran.
It is feared in European capitals that the US is running too fast and too far in his bid for reconciliation with the Islamic Republic, to the detriment by association of their own standing I the Persian Gulf.
They are moreover miffed by the way Washington used Europe as a tool in the long nuclear negotiations between the Six World Powers with Iran and is now dumping them in favor of direct dealings with Iranian leaders.
Netanyahu decided not to accede to either request. Instead he laid out his credo: Iran must discontinue nuclear development and dismantle its program or face up to the risk of a lone Israeli military attack.
The look on the face of US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, sitting at the US delegation’s table in the UN hall, showed he had realized that the prime minister’s words were not just addressed to Tehran; they were an unforeseen broadside against the Obama administration’s Iranian strategy.
The dissonance between Jerusalem and Washington on Iran and its nuclear aspirations, played down after the Obama-Netanyahu meeting at the White House, emerged at full blast in the UN speech. The consequences are likely to be reflected in American media, as they were at the low point in relations in 2010, when administration officials day by day planted negative assessments of Israel’s military inadequacies for damaging Iran’s nuclear facilities.
After the UN speech, the Israeli Home Defense Minister Gilead Erdan tried to pour oil on troubled waters by commenting that the prime minister’s speech had strengthened Obama’s hand against Tehran. However, Netanyahu had a different object. It was to paint Washington’s new partner in détente in the blackest colors, even though he knows there is no chance of swaying the US President from his pursuit of Tehran and the sanctions, which he believes to be the only effective deterrent for giving the Iranians pause, will soon start unraveling.
Binyamin Netanyahu now faces the uphill job of repairing his own credibility. For five years has had declared again and again that Israel’s military option is on track in certain circumstances, but has never lived up to the threat. He has followed a path of almost total military passivity.
President Obama knows that Israel’s military capacity is up to a solo operation against Iran. Tehran, however, though conscious of the IDF’s high military, technological and cyber warfare capabilities, is convinced that Israel like the United States has lost the appetite for a military initiative.
Netanyahu must now revive Israel’s deterrence and convince Iran that his challenge at the UN had ended an era of military passivity and should be taken seriously.
In the coming weeks, therefore, the Iranians will react with steps to upset US-Israeli relations, possibly by raising military tensions in the region directly or through their proxies. Until now Tehran operated from outside Washington and its inner councils. Now, smart Iranian diplomats will be sitting down with the US president close to his ear for friendly discussions on ways to further their rapprochement.
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WarSclerotic 
October 2, 2013 at 5:16 PM
This is not of topic, but a must read,
http://gatesofvienna.net/2013/09/did-we-lose-the-cold-war/
October 2, 2013 at 5:19 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/09/30/The-War-of-Words-is-Over
I told it before we have thrown complete country,s under the bus, we did it and we will do it again.
October 2, 2013 at 10:46 PM
We just wanted to repost what we wrote before, and we hope it is ok with Artaxes that we post his response and our response to it.
Smiley Says:
October 2, 2013 at 12:02 PM
Hi guys, one of the things we wonder about what you guys think, is about the diplomatic situation that might happen if Israel waits to long, like we said it might or might not happen, but its something that hopefully people in charge of Israel have discussed.
We were thinking that what would happen if Iran and the UN agreed on some kind of arrangement where Iran could keep making and or keeping its nuclear enriched products or other arrangements that the UN and Iran would accept, but would be an existential threat to Israel and other muslim countries, which would cause the other muslim countries to get nuclear weapons.
So if such an agreement is reached by Iran and the UN, then Israel would be breaking international law by pre emptily attacking Iran, because according to international law, if Iran signed a deal with the UN, then Iran would be seen as complying with international laws, and Israel would be breaking international law.
So if a deal was reached with the UN and Iran, then if Israel kept threatening Iran, Iran could take the threats to the UN, or alternately they could just claim they are victims of Israeli aggression and play the victims role and beg for international protection from Israel.
Even if Iran is financially broke, they would be financially helped by their allies, and they would get the best quality and quantity of weapons like the s300, s400, or maybe s500 russian missile systems, and maybe other advanced russian weapons.
Because Israel would be going againts international law, they couldnt play the role of the victim, or get much sympathy to overcome the russian defence missiles, or other russian advanced weapons, and they probably wouldnt get their weapons resupplied by the US.
And if Iran would be seen as obeying international UN laws and Israel would be seen as breaking it by threatening, then russia might even become the protective big brother of Iran and threaten with Russian missiles and other forms of military retaliation, and the world would agree with Russias role as a protecter of Iran against a war mongering Israel.
We hope this wont happen, which is why Israel shouldnt do to much more threatening, because it would be seen as a war mongerer if Iran is complying with international law even if it doesnt meet Israels security needs.
So hopefully Israel will attack as soon as possible without to many more threats, or hardly any more threats, and must realise that already with all the threats theyve given, Iran might still be able to play the victim card even if Israel doesnt make any more threats.
And Iran might still be able to cry to the world to get help againts Israel, and get the Russian big brother protection, and also other muslim countries help, and either no one or hardly anyone will help Israel, and no one will resupply Israel with weapons.
So please let us know what anyone thinks, how this could be avoided, what can Israel do to survive.
Please dont go into to much detail, as some of our muslim or Russian enemies are also reading this blog.
Thank you, Smiley
======================
artaxes Says:
October 2, 2013 at 4:28 PM
I take the liberty to paste here an excerpt of my article “Putin, America and the Grand Bargain”.
It deals not with exactly the same scenario but a very similar one, namely the situation how Israel can prevent a bad deal before it happens but it can also apply after a phony deal was concluded.
“Israel our last player in this chess game is in great danger now because the circumstances are not favourable to an Israeli strike, because as it seems the US is falling for the Iranian bait and the world gets a false picture of a real chance to end the nuclear crisis and also because the US is, it seems, still opposed to an Israeli strike.
The US will make an appeasement deal with Iran or it will come finally to its senses and give the green light to an Israeli strike which I have very big difficulties to believe.
So, what can Israel do to change the game
The Iranians have always done their enrichment work and military experiments in secret. The existence of both Natanz and Fordow were only admitted by the Iranians when their existence was revealed by the intelligence services or dissidents.
I believe that there are more such secrets sites. The ISIS institute hinted at the existence of a possible secret laser enrichment site.
I also believe that Israel has good intelligence on the Iranian program because its existence depends on it. There are also plausible reports about Israeli human intelligence operating in Iran.
This leads me to believe that Israel knows about such secrets sites.
If that is indeed the case all Israel has to do is expose these sites. This would create several things. It would end the charade that is currently going on and create a strong sense of urgency. The Iranians would be totally exposed as liars who cannot be trusted. It would show that they are not serious. It would show that there is no point for the US or anyone negotiating with them. Most importantly it would show that they have crossed the rubicon already and that there is no more time left to waste. Such a move would increase diplomatic support and justification for an Israeli strike and also public support in the US and around the world.
After having taking back the initiative in the public arena Israel should immediately follow up with a military strike”.
Reply
Smiley Says:
October 2, 2013 at 9:51 PM
Also we see that someone has activated for the Israeli opposition leader Yachimovich to say “Opposition head says Israel does not stand alone against Iran,
Islamic Republic is no existential threat . . . . ”
We believe Yachimovich is probably a pretty smart person to get the qualifications to become the head of her party, and become the opposition leader, so we dont believe she truly believes that the Islamic Iranian Republic is not an existential threat, but we believe people are advising her to do this for maybe political gains.
So maybe the Obama administration contacted someone to get her to do this, because if the Obama administration can divide the Israeli public, and maybe they will also try to enlist J Street, then maybe they could in Israel and in the Jewish diaspora community build a movement to oppose Bibis steps to protect Israel from Iran, and other muslim countries who will also get the nuclear weapons that will be a threat, if they think Iran has them.
Please let us know what you think.
Thank you Artaxes, for your response to our question at the beginning our entry today, this gives us a bit of an idea how Israel might with its strength and Gods help still be able to survive, but hopefully they wont leave it to late, or it might survive but with 90% of it with a third degree burn, which would also be really awful, and the survivors might find it uninhabitable.
Sorry Joseph, we havent had time to view Bibis speech, we will view it.
Thank you, Smiley.
October 2, 2013 at 11:18 PM
We wanted to answer Louisiana Steve, that yes a lot of people are monitoring many websites and blogs for many reasons, and this website and blog is monitored by many various people and many varieties of government agencies, and many enemies of Israel, whether they are certain Muslim enemy countries, Russian, other countries, and sorry to say, even the hostile Obama US administration, who has leaked many Israeli attack ideas on Iran, so Obama US administration is hostile to Israel.
If Joseph wants to reveal how we know his site is monitored, thats up to him, but for security and privacy reasons he might not be able to.
Thank you, Smiley.
October 3, 2013 at 3:52 AM
Thanks for responding, Smiley. I do have a few questions if I may. You address yourself as ‘We’. Am I to assume you represent a group and if so, whom? Secondly, can you clue me as to whom you may be so that I can assess the accuracy of your claim that this site is monitored. Afterall, I need to judges the level of risk to myself and my family by partaking in the discussions on JW’s site. If you or JW would like to contact me confidentially, my email address is readily available. Thanks again.
October 3, 2013 at 9:13 AM
Hi Louisiana Steve, all we can say is that whatever you post on this site or other sites, please take into consideration that it is a public site and anyone can read whatever we post.
Security wise, please contact JW and he can help you with that.
We agree with you, that our families come first, and we have to and need to protect our families.
Having said that, you and your family are quite safe, and you have more to worry about the American government spying on you, as you probably read or might have heard the NSA is filtering hundreds of millions emails everyday from the US and the world for various things. It is againts the US constitution that they are doing this, but they make new laws or loop holes to be able to get away with it.
So if your not emailing about any criminal actions or thoughts, then you will be fine.
As for posting on JW blog, no one is going to bother you, unless you were posting information about assassination plans of an Iranian agent, government official, or any other countries agents or government officials, but those things wouldnt be posted here, it would be on secure apparatuses and methods that we wouldnt have access to.
We try to be careful not to post anything concerning military maneuvers or capabilities, as the hostile Obama administration leaked Israeli military ideas, that benefited Iran, which is why it is hard for many to believe the Obama administration about anything they say, and why it is harmful for Israel to keep waiting for the US and Iranian negotiations, as things keep getting worse and worse for Israeli security.
Israel might win the war againts Iran and its proxies, but if 1 or 2 nuclear devices such as nuclear suicide bombers get in, etc, and Israel gets a third degree burn to 90 % of it, it might have survived but it might be uninhabitable even in the 10% left.
Thats why we hope Bibi takes action as soon as possible, because John the Prophet blogger is correct, sadly it is really late to take action now, even if some people dont want to hear it.
Its important that Israel takes military action as soon as possible, to minimize the damage it will get, and the longer it takes to the worse damage it will get, as a third degree burn to 90% of it, it might have survived but it might be uninhabitable even in the 10% left.
You can also google info about how to track blog postings or tracking emails, but we think JW might be able to help you with that.
Also many postings ago, I think Joop and Luis, and maybe others were posting info how to create safe emailing methods and internet connections, and internet filtering, etc.
Please could anyone on this site advise Louisiana Steve about how to create safe emailing methods and internet connections, and internet filtering, etc.
Thank you, Smiley.
October 3, 2013 at 10:19 AM
Start here
https://www.abine.com/dntdetail.php
perhaps ad this
http://www.yvpn.com/blog/3711/private-internet-access-review/
or this
http://www.yvpn.com/blog/3407/expressvpn-review/
October 3, 2013 at 9:09 PM
Thanks Joop.