WarSclerotic

Iran’s campaign to change its image, led by the country’s president/publicist Hasan Rouhani, is now fully underway.

Even though Rouhani sounded very similar during his U.N. General Assembly speech to his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Rouhani’s speech included mentions of Iran’s right to have a nuclear program and enrich uranium, as well as criticism of the U.S.), Rouhani’s words inspired hope around the world. Rouhani knows how to play the exact music that the world wants to hear these days.

The Iranian president, with moderation of course, used the stage in New York to move ahead to the next stage of Iran’s campaign: After Rouhani explained that Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program (the Persian translation for his overseers is that Iran will become a nuclear threshold state), the Iranian president attacked Israel, saying it poses a global problem: “Israel is the only country in the region that has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.” To us, comparing Israel to Iran may seem ridiculous, but that is not necessarily the case in other places.

An “Obama Doctrine”?

Iran, which is suffering from sanctions and international isolation yet is insisting on continuing its nuclear program, did not let Rouhani to shake hands with U.S. President Barack Obama. Some would say that such a handshake could have been the pinnacle of Iran’s campaign at the U.N., but the Iranians decided that the conditions today are such that they can charge high price for every gesture. Rouhani is perhaps the only current world leader able to get away with not showing up to dine with Obama.

Pundits, including some in Israel, are telling us that Obama, in a brilliant move, is disarming Syria of chemical weapons and Iran of nuclear weapons almost simultaneously after having put his pistol on the table. So we now have, even before the results are in, an apparent “Obama Doctrine.”

However, the reality is opposite. The Iranians clearly understood that the U.S.-Russia agreement in Geneva proved just how little Washington was interested in opening new fronts in the Middle East and that the deal was the product of American weakness, rather than strength.

Iran realized that America’s military option is nothing more than rhetorical. The U.S.-Russia deal also elevated Iran’s status in the region, as Russia arranged for Iran to be the groomsman in the arrangement. Who is more suitable than Iran to play an active role in the search for a diplomatic solution in Syria? Western diplomats say that Iran is putting together a delegation to attend the Geneva 2 conference. Assad, under the protection of a Russian-Iranian umbrella,is now even allowing himself to disparage Obama, saying that the American president is “too hesitant and weak to attack Syria.” Just a month ago, Assad was shaking with fear.

The meeting between Iran and world superpowers on Thursday took place after years of deadlock. An Iranian foreign minister and U.S. secretary of state sat at the same table for the first time in 34 years. This was definitely a historic event. Rouhani promised that an agreement would be reached within three to six months. One can assume that any deal reached in such a short time frame, after all the failures since October 2009, would be bad for Israel. But even if there is no progress, it is highly doubtful that anyone in the world would take on the mission of stopping Iran’s centrifuges.

Iranian media was enthusiastic on Wednesday about the “American change of tone,” as the top headline in the Etemaad newspaper put it, but certainly not about Iran’s change of tone.

In our world, where everything is a matter of perception, it is not surprising that many are excited about Iran’s campaign and the “Obama Doctrine.” But behind all the sweet lips and honey lies reality, which has changed for the worse.