Iran, Russia advise Assad to transfer chemical stockpile to Tehran – to avert US attack
Iran, Russia advise Assad to transfer chemical stockpile to Tehran – to avert US attack.
The Iranian parliamentary delegation visiting Damascus Sunday, Sept. 1, advised Bashar Assad to move his chemical stockpile out of Syria and deposit it in Tehran under Iranian and Russian military supervision, to save himself from an American military strike, debkafile’s exclusive military and Iranian sources reveal.
Chairman of the Majlis Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ala-Eddin Borujerdi, who headed the delegation, explained that Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Vladimir Putin had discussed the stockpile’s removal ad hoc, as the basis of a Iranian-Russian plan for presenting to US President Barack Obama at the G-20 summit meeting in St. Petersburg later this week.
After the Americans accept the plan and the crisis blows over, the stockpile could be quietly returned to Syria, the Iranian lawmaker explained.
Another option was for Iranian and Russian teams to destroy the stockpile in return for US-Arab League guarantees that the Syrian rebels would not use this process for strategic war gains. The chemical agents would be destroyed in stages in accordance with rebel compliance with such guarantees.
debkafile’s military sources explain Tehran’s quest for a deal on two grounds: One – Iran supplied Syria with most of the formulae and substances for the manufacture of the poison agents and fears exposure if they fall into American hands.
Another is anxiety lest an American military strike on Syria’s chemical stores – if it is allowed to go through – would serve as a precedent or prequel for a similar attack on Iran’s nuclear assets.
Tehran is therefore willing to put on an amenable face and meet the United States half way on the disposal of Syria’s chemical arsenal. The offer would be presented as good for President Obama and let him give the American people the glad tidings that he had managed to defuse the Syrian chemical crisis by procuring a joint Iranian-Russian guarantee to eliminate Syria’s chemical arsenal. He could then call off an attack Syria with honor, or postpone it indefinitely to avoid disrupting the process of Syria’s chemical disarmament.
Both the Russians and the Iranians saw an opening for their plan in a phrase President Obama used in his surprise announcement Saturday night, Aug. 31 that he would ask Congress to authorize a military attack on Syria before going ahead. It was this: “…the Chairman [of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff] has indicated to me that our capacity to execute this mission is not time-sensitive; it will be effective tomorrow, or next week, or a month from now.”
The Russian-Iranian plan would turn those words back on the US president by offering him guarantees that if he was not satisfied that Syria’s chemical stocks were gone – either by transfer to Iran or destroyed – he had left himself with time to play with for reverting to his military option.
The Iranian lawmakers told Assad that Tehran is not fully in the picture of the secret Russian-US dialogue on Syria, but Tehran had reason to believe that the Russians had put out feelers to the Americans on the proposition and were not initially turned down.
Russian and Iranian intelligence experts on US politics expect Obama’s limited offensive plan for Syria to run into major obstacles in Congress. They hope the opposition will find added support for its counter-arguments in the Iranian-Russian proposition. And even if it is eventually turned down, the deliberations on its pros and cons would buy time for the Syrian ruler’s war effort.
The Iranian parliamentary delegation also included Javad Karimi Qodusi and Fath-o-Allah Hosseini, two other prominent members of the Majlis foreign affairs panel.
WarSclerotic 
September 2, 2013 at 12:23 PM
On the face of it, this actually looks to me like a potential solution to the current standoff over Assad’s CWs. If Russia can really arrange for the verifiable destruction of Assad’s stockpiles, we avoid American involvement in another war (which most of the public in the US, UK and elsewhere are against) and remove a major threat to both the Syrian people and neighbouring countries. Obama also saves face and perhaps the back channel negotiations between the US, Russia, Iran and Syria that lead to this deal could pave the way for a future settlement that may help bring an end to this dreadful conflict. The US should settle for nothing less than the complete destruction of all Assad’s CW stockpile – simply transferring them to Iran until things cool down is not acceptable. The alternatives – from doing nothing, to a pointless limited strike, to full scale involvement in what could well become a major war dragging in regional powers and possibly Russia – are far less desirable. Worth trying, to my mind.
September 2, 2013 at 12:37 PM
Yes, its an honorable solution to an unpleasant incident. The Iranians(again!?) should take those toys back home, saving them for another nefarious morning, with unsuspected civilians, mothers and children. Yes, why not. Where to sign up?
September 2, 2013 at 12:44 PM
…and its getting even better: Syria just asked protection from the UN against US possible future aggression. Why not? I bet it will be easier for the Syrians to set up a coalition against the US than it was for Obama to put in place a coalition against Syria. But we are advising Assad to go first and present his case in front of the Syrian parliament, as it suits a truly democratic country.
September 2, 2013 at 1:17 PM
The American public would not be pleased to transfer these weapons to a country that parades weapons with labels that say “Death to America”. Thank you very much. The transfer will be made to Moscow.
September 2, 2013 at 3:21 PM
…even better in Israel. I can help them. We have plenty of space here, in our neighborhood.
September 2, 2013 at 3:44 PM
The American public doesn’t give a damn lately who is killing who and why, using what weapons and when; the American public today is busy with its own plethora of problems and this is why Obama run to the Congress; he felt he doesn’t have a public legit umbrella. But why being harsh on the troubled American public? What about the Brits? And the French? I’ll tell you what :
This fu@ken Middle East circus, with all its jihad, bombings, suicide attacks, wars, 9/11, Benghazi, Beirut 1983, Palestinians & Israelis soap operas, and now Syria and the Sarin gas…all these its already too much for the poor Europe and much troubled USA. And I even forgot to mention the Iranians, in that list. Interesting what Freud should have said about this omission.
September 2, 2013 at 4:28 PM
The American public sees Muslim killing Muslim and thinks that while they are killing each other there is no reason to interfere and get our kids killed. End of story.
September 2, 2013 at 5:08 PM
No problem. Strong words and well said. After all, America is another nation between all the other nations and it doesn’t have any special privileges or responsibilities, so be it. The same with Britain. I really don’t know why everybody are expecting so much from these two usual, regular countries and nations. What, are they the cops of the world? Where we all will be if one’s country leader couldn’t kill some of his own citizens with poisoned gas? And being afraid after that from a foreign military intervention? And who is going in ? Why not Romania? Or Hungary? What, are they not countries on this planet like everybody else? Were they not shocked by those photos and videos, showing mothers and children dead by poisoned gas? Let Romanian jets and planes carriers to do the job. Why America? What is so special about that?
If the US is not special anymore, we must know that immediately and better its president should make the announce, for all the others on the planet to try to organize, facing the new jungle ( he might did just that, in his last speech ).
If the US is still that leading nation in the world, than all should know that being big also imply responsibility and somebody in that White House better will wake up, before its too late.
However, it doesn’t matter now -at least, we feel that way- who is important, who is special or who should take responsibility.
The cat is now completely out of the bag and we are still debating what to do? Terminating the head of the snake, my brothers, that what Israel – and Israel alone – should do now, more than ever.
Israel got now international legit even before it asked for it, because of the last events: crimes against the humanity near our borders, the catastrophic lack of leadership from the leading nations of the world and least but not last, the very existence of Israel is being threatened by the same state who is responsible for the Syrian tragedy. So, my brethren, what we should do to such a state? How much should we wait? Should we first hear the cries of our children and mothers or should we act now, swiftly, and cutting off the head of the Iranian snake?
September 2, 2013 at 6:32 PM
Great comment and questions. The answer to what leadership role is played by America changes with every generation and every situation. It is true that presently Americans are not happy sending their kids to help where no appreciation for our sacrifice is shown. But I digress.
The answers to your questions are going to very publicly debated over the next week or so in the United States. The isolationists, the left wing revolutionaries, and the pacifist are going to be very loud arguing against any military intervention anywhere. But in the end, I believe that the majority of Americans will recognize the importance of our role in the world. I personally believe that the American revolution lives on and we must continually strive to bring it to everyone in the world.
I think that most Americans believe that Obama’s “limited” one night stand attacking Syria was a stupid, dumb plan that was just waste of time. That they are happy that it was stopped because it was such a stupid plan that provoke armageddon. That if we decide to attack then we must decide to blow Assad’s head off. We will see what is the results are soon.
September 2, 2013 at 6:43 PM
Agreed, Norm.
If the US attacks it will be along the lines of what McCain has been advocating.
The half-assed “spanking” Obama proposed is beneath the dignity of the congress to authorize. If anything is approved it will be wide open.
Who knows, it might bolster the gutless Obama to do something useful despite himself.
September 2, 2013 at 6:48 PM
Thank you, Norm, for staying a while and reading my humble lines. I, like you and everybody else here and in the world, we’ll have to wait and see what smoke will emerge from the Capitol Hill, as you wrote.
September 2, 2013 at 2:26 PM
Bottom line here is that Iran is once again exposed as the snake in the woodpile and everyone should capitalize on this fact. Some good may come from this yet. Apparantly while no one seems to fear Obama, yet they still fear the US military. I agree with Norm. Moscow is the only out. That will place Putin under greater scrutiny and the world can once again wonder why they have a hard time trusting Iran.
September 2, 2013 at 3:29 PM
That will be unfair for the Syrians. They got their stuff from the Russians, years ago, after paying money for that. And now, what?
You want, what? To take their chemical stuff and bring it back to Russia? Are you nuts? Who is doing business like this? I have a better idea: take Syria back in Russia. Just like that. Give us some quiet here, to enjoy the beautiful sun. A…I almost forgot about that, but I hope it wont be too much trouble if you’ll take Iran back into Russia, too. ”You know, for kids.”
September 2, 2013 at 5:33 PM
Russia instructed its military off the coast of Syria “to prepare for a serious confrontation.”
September 2, 2013 at 5:44 PM
Forgive me, DT but “Yawn!”
The Russians won’t fire a shot. They’ve even said as much. They’re in it for the money, not the principle.
Funny, but in the end it may well be the Russians who solve the Syria mess. Get rid of the WMDs so the US won’t need to attack, as Debka reported.
If they want to keep Assad, that’s the best way. He doesn’t need the chemical weapons to win. If the US attacks, it will probably spell the end of the Syrian “cash cow” the Russians are so protective of.
September 2, 2013 at 5:59 PM
The WMD leaving Syrian shores its not going to happen. Period. The Iranians wont let that happen. Those weapons are a part from their grand strategy in Syria (and not only). They will continue to use those weapons in the name of the Assad regime letting him to take the blame, while behind the scene they are continuously working on their bigger WMD systems, the nuclear weapons arsenal. The Iranians are keeping the dummy west busy with the chemical weapons, while Iran will emerge from behind as a nuclear regional power. This is why not Syria should be the priority now, but Iran. The cat is now completely out of the bag. Someone must stop talk and start to shoot.