Other than clarifying that Congress would vote on US military involvement in Syria, US President Barack Obama’s last-minute announcement Saturday left viewers and pundits alike with more questions than answers.
1. Will Obama win congressional support?
If national sentiment is any indication of congressional voting — a fact which the historically low congressional approval ratings calls into question — the answer is uncertain. The most recent poll of Americans on the subject indicated that support for military intervention in Syria stood at 50 percent.
The president’s announcement Saturday disabled not one, but two of the most critical GOP justifications for opposing military intervention.
The Republicans in both the House and Senate are painfully divided into foreign policy camps that could be roughly described as interventionists, isolationists and fiscal skeptics. In recent days, the GOP leadership had managed to rally all of those camps behind a critique of Obama’s Syria policy based on the fact that the president had not consulted Congress.
The impact of the argument was particularly damaging, given that it channeled the left-wing’s critique of the interventionist policies of Obama’s Republican predecessor, George W. Bush. It allowed the Republicans to circle their own wagons, but also to bring in Democrats in a campaign that opposed military action on the grounds that airstrikes without the approval of Congress were unconstitutional. The fact that the vote will occur at all limits the scale of the coalition that would potentially oppose intervention.
Obama also turned a neat trick, early observers pointed out, when he described action against Syria as both a security and a moral imperative. Such justifications put liberal and conservative interventionists in both parties on the spot — key members of the Republican Old Guard like Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will find it hard to oppose action justified on those grounds.
Earlier this week, McCain responded to UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s epic parliamentary defeat in a similar vote by saying that he felt “badly about the British,” explaining that “they are our dear friends but they are no longer a world power.” Would McCain be willing to commit to a vote that would have the same implications for the United States?
Liberals are more challenged by the nature of the alleged chemical attack itself — the images of rows of dead children lend themselves to the question that stands at the heart of the tension among liberals. In the face of an act of mass slaughter that obviously targeted civilians, the classic Holocaust parallel arises – aided, of course, by Secretary of State John Kerry’s comments Friday in which he cited the common catchphrase “never again.”
Liberals already find themselves torn between a moral reluctance to military intervention and a moral disgust at the idea of standing by and watching the slaughter of innocents.
Obama’s decision to put the vote to Congress virtually ensures victory — for the president, at least. If Congress rejects military action, he retains the moral high ground of intending to help, and of agreeing to legislative oversight, without facing the critique for the outcome of intervention. If Congress approves, he will have demonstrated moral and political leadership, and may even create an environment of improved Hill-White House relationships in the weeks before the looming budget and debt ceiling debates.
2. When will Congress vote?
If the Republican leadership put the nail in the coffin of an early vote, it is unclear if the delay will benefit or harm the president’s case. But that, of course, depends on what the president’s real agenda is.
Obama emphasized in his address that Congress would hold a debate and vote on military action in Syria immediately after the legislature reconvenes. The scheduled date for the Congressional session to begin is September 9, a date that critics have already noted gives Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime an additional 10 days to hunker down before airstrikes.
In the first minutes after Obama’s speech, it sounded as if the Democrat-led Senate was considering reconvening before the scheduled start date. But shortly after Obama finished, the entire House Republican leadership issued a joint statement in which they said that “we expect the House to consider a measure the week of September 9th.” The delay, they said, “provides the president time to make his case to Congress and the American people.”
3. What is Obama’s real agenda on Syria?
Obama is, of course, a Nobel laureate. His prize is one of the most-maligned Nobel Peace Prizes — when he received it, it was derided as a “speculative” prize for future action. The action, incidentally, was nuclear disarmament, which hit rocky shores when the US-Russia relationship began taking on water. High on Obama’s agenda, moral or pragmatic, is to shore up America’s — and his own — role in the world.
To that end, his key concern for both domestic and international audiences is to not make a mistake. He must tread a difficult line between appearing too overly aggressive à la George W. Bush, but also not alienating more people in the Middle East by making it seem as though the US was willing to stand by while civilians were slaughtered. Obama’s overall approval rating is at its lowest ever — 44 percent — and his foreign policy approval rating is now lower than his domestic policy approval rating.
His approval rating on how he has handled the issue of intervention in Syria is even worse – a grim 35 percent, according to the same NBC poll released Friday. Part of his real agenda must be to change that — but in what direction, given the 50% approval/disapproval rate for military intervention?
What he means to do depends largely on how his advisers have “read” his chances of getting the vote on intervention through both houses of Congress. If his advisers believe that the partisan politics of the capital city will take over, and the GOP will reject involvement, it could be that he is banking on the Republicans taking the fall for blocking an attack that he doesn’t want to carry out in the first place.
If, however, advisers see Congress as likely to pass the resolution, it means that Obama genuinely wants military involvement to take place and will also gain bonus points along the way for deferring to Congress — even if it is widely believed that Congressional approval is not required for such an intervention.
Obama has refused to answer questions about whether he will continue with plans for intervention if his resolution fails on the Hill, leaving a final note of ambiguity in an already hard-to-read political situation.

September 1, 2013 at 12:05 PM
All those analysis tried to explain Obama and his legacy, on the Syrian crisis, are a full and complete bullshit. No legacy here, no morality and no planning ahead, either.
Obama got cold legs when he realized – very late, in our opinion – that attacking Syrian even in a cosmetic way will bring the region to war – Iran and Israel included. The war that he tried so hard to avoid, between Israel and Iran could become a reality, should he continue with its ”discrete, narrow and limited ” military strike in Syria.
This nightmare was before the US president when he decided to go to the world tv cameras and saying, in essence, that he was wrong. Only a very powerful and immediate threat can change the decision of an US president, risking to make a joke from himself.
That’s all for this time, kiddies. And if you still are asking yourselves what the fu@k just happened, then you just entered the Twilight Zone.
September 1, 2013 at 12:41 PM
Where the hell does this bogus 50% US public approval number for attacking Syria come from; it’s nowheres near 50% in any other poll that I’ve seen; 20% at best. Congress will NOT give Obama a green light to attack Syria, which is exactly according to Obama’s plan to get Congress to bail him out on that stupid “red line” remark.
September 1, 2013 at 1:19 PM
Spartacus is correct. The American people are much smarter than their President and recognized right off the start that an American attack could not be “limited”. Such an idea, a this time still being promoted by my Congressman and Senators is the twilight zone. Remember this is a President who is desperate to be known in the future as a peacetime president.
Here is part of an email that my Congressman, Steve Israel, from the 3rd District, New York sent me:
Start Quote
“With the regime’s escalation of attacks within Syria — and the broader regional and global implications — I have concluded that a surgical and targeted air strike is needed as long as it is limited to degrading Syria’s chemical weapons capabilities. I have arrived at this conclusion for several reasons. First, because we don’t want the current chemical weapons capability to fall into the wrong hands — to be used against Syria’s neighbors or to more directly threaten or harm our interests. Second, to send a message to Hezbollah and Iran that there are consequences to the grotesque use of chemical weapons. Third, because decades of international law must be enforced. Fourth, because, unfortunately, the lack of consequences to the Syrian military command will empower them to broaden the use of chemical weapons and annihilate many more. ”
“While I believe that a surgical and targeted effort aimed at degrading Syria’s chemical weapons capability is warranted, I do not believe that the current climate in Syria rises to the level of any additional involvement and, in particular, does not warrant the deployment of U.S. military personnel within Syria.”
End Quote
The Congressman believes that the United States could actually find and impair Syria’s chemical warfare capabilities with one very limited, surgical strike; and no further involvement. And of course, in his mind such a strike would have no response from Syria, Iran or Hezbollah so America would not have any further need for getting involved in more combat. See folks, my Congressman is a moron.