WarSclerotic

For Egyptian forces, setbacks will only bring more resolve | The Times of Israel.

( I have to say that it’s a real pleasure to root FOR the Egyptian soldier rather than having to fight him in battle.  I hope they know that among the West, Israel is their strongest supporter. – JW )

The killing of 25 policemen in the Sinai will likely spur Cairo to redouble its efforts against terror, much like Israel did after losing 13 soldiers in a 2002 West Bank operation

An Egyptian army soldier takes his position on top of an armored vehicle while guarding an entrance to Tahrir Square in Cairo on Friday, August 16. (photo credit: AP/Hassan Ammar)

The terror attack in the Sinai Peninsula Monday morning, which left 25 Egyptian policemen dead, dealt a somewhat serious blow to the Egyptian army’s morale.

Its honor has been tarnished, and every Egyptian soldier that arrives in the heated-up Sinai area now knows just how much danger his life is in.

However, in the long term, no matter how cynical it sounds, the attack will likely be used by the authorities in Cairo to prove to the Egyptian public, and the international community, of the depth of the challenge the army is facing today in Sinai.

Since the ousting of Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood regime, there has been an increase in the number of attacks on soldiers of the Egyptian army in the peninsula, something that is not lost on the Egyptian public. Just last week — in the space of 48 hours — 17 members of the Egyptian security forces were killed.

That is a real terrorist threat that was most clearly demonstrated Monday morning, and it will be used by the regime to tie the Muslim Brotherhood to terrorists who apparently executed all of the 25 Egyptian soldiers, even after they had overpowered them.

Rather than sap the army of the will to fight, though, they may actually be more motivated to defeat their enemies in the Sinai, much as Israel rebounded from the deaths of 13 reservists during 2002′s Operation Defensive Shield during the Jenin “massacre” that never was.

In that case, the IDF responded to the deaths by redoubling its resolve and sending in even more forces to crush the terror stronghold in the West Bank refugee camp during the height of the Second Intifada.

Just like Israel, it can likewise be assumed that the Egyptian army will increase its forces in the Sinai and in many ways, will takes its gloves off.

A senior official in the Egyptian security apparatus explained not so long ago, in a private conversation, that one of the most difficult problems for the army to deal with in the Sinai is where to operate.

It is no secret that armed elements in the Sinai are clustered around two centers: the central mountainous region, which provides plenty of hiding places for the Jihadists; and the northeast region, an area that is relatively highly crowded, in cities like Rafah, el-Arish, and Sheikh Zweid.

The location of this morning’s attack near the border town of Rafah is not coincidental. It is the same area where 16 Egyptian soldiers were killed by terrorists, who then tried to storm the Israeli border.

The area is problematic for the army, since Jihadists can easily conceal themselves among the local population, who, in most cases, help and support them.

The Bedouin living in those towns have, over the years, became more religious, and more and more on the side of the Palestinians who always viewed the Egyptian army as unfriendly. It can be assumed that the Jihadists in the area are in contact with the population on the other side of the border in Gaza, hence the army’s decision to once again close the Rafah crossing.

At the end of the day, the Egyptian army operating in Sinai doesn’t have many choices. It needs to crush the Jihadists, even if that means sending more forces to the peninsula at the price of more soldiers’ lives. The army has superior numbers with superior arms, but victory over terror there won’t come quickly, exactly like Operation Defensive Shield didn’t end West Bank terror.

It was only a beginning and, likewise, so is the current Egyptian military campaign.

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