WarSclerotic

Bloodshed in Arab world means reduced threats to Israel, at least for now – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Internal fighting around Middle East has given Israel strategic breathing room that enabled the government to enact limited budget cuts in the IDF. Extra caution is necessary but this isn’t our war: the less we intervene, the better.

Protesters opposing Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi wave Egyptian flags and shout slogans against him in front of the presidential palace in Cairo June 30, 2013 Photo by Reuters

The revolution devours its children. Two and a half years into the Arab Spring, the basic will that brought the downfall of some Arab leaders and the revolt against others − the will to improve the economic situation and civil liberties of Arab citizens − has deteriorated into civil war between ethnic groups and religions, from Libya to Iraq. The events of recent days − mostly in Egypt but not only there − are a sad reminder. Taking into consideration the ongoing bloodshed in Syria and the fear of further escalation in the streets of Cairo, some Arab pundits are slamming what they believe is a suicidal tendency of the Arab nations.

The millions protesting in Egypt, a year after Mohammed Morsi was elected president, are the most obvious example of the shattering of the dream of improvement after the fall of the old dictators, as far as ordinary citizens are concerned. In Syria, of course, the situation is much worse. Last week, a Syrian human rights group based in London said that the civil war has now claimed more than 100,000 lives. At present, President Bashar Assad’s forces are preparing for a renewed attack on Homs, still mostly under rebel control, shelling civilian neighborhoods heavily before the final incursion.

Lebanon is slipping into a war of its own, although the scope of this conflict is still limited. In each of the past weeks, there were at least five deaths and dozens of injured in skirmishes between the various ethnic groups. Last week the tension reached its peak, following a confrontation between Sunni extremists and Lebanese security forces in Sidon. Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir, the most aggressive adversary of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, has been abducted, injured or has gone underground. Still, the criticism of Hezbollah’s conduct, openly sending battalions to Syria, as well as of the Lebanese government’s inaction on this matter, keeps growing. The anger at Hezbollah is expressed by bolder actions by its rivals, who shot rockets at Shi’ite villages in the Beqaa Valley and even, once, at the organization’s stronghold, the Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut.

Recently, tension burst out between Hezbollah and Hamas activists in the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, following Hamas’ late support of its Sunni brethren in Syria. The international press barely mentions Iraq, where Sunnis and Kurds are fighting the Shi’ite prime minister. Jordan, too, is rumbling as a result of the Syrian civil war and the waves of refugees fleeing the fighting in Syria and Iraq.

How should Israel react to all this? The country’s leaders and the IDF commanders − in many way these two groups often overlap − were educated and raised on the lesson of a historical trauma and an ethos of action. The trauma is the 1973 war − the IDF last week began marking its 40th anniversary − when the Egyptian and Syrian armies surprised the IDF, which learned to be on a constant state of alert. This ethos will always prefer action to inaction. The IDF educates its officers to deal with a developing threat, and often to take preemptive action.

Still, the historical trauma is, at present, less relevant, and it seems the right thing to do would be to ignore the action reflex. The bleeding confrontations in the Arab world are not necessarily good for Israel; they might also have negative implications, such as the strengthening of extremist Sunni groups inspired by al-Qaida in the Sinai peninsula and in the southern Golan Heights. Still, as far as Israel is concerned, the immediate result of the Arabs being preoccupied with themselves is a decrease in the conventional warfare threat. Visiting the Syrian border last week, one could see that Assad’s military presence is almost non-existent, with most tanks busy massacring civilians in Homs and Damascus. The Egyptian army is preoccupied with the implications of the internal struggle, and is growing more dependent on U.S. aid, thus making it less likely to initiate direct confrontation with Israel in the foreseeable future.

This modest strategic breathing room enabled the government to enact temporary, limited budget cuts in the IDF. In the short run it requires extra caution, especially on the Syrian front. This isn’t our war: the less we intervene, the better.

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