WarSclerotic

We are told that the targets of the Israeli airstrikes against Syria were Iranian-made Fateh-110 missiles. But if we look at the places hit, we see two administrative buildings, a research center, an air defense unit and a weapons armory. There is no cargo on the road to Lebanon. What is the aim of Israel, which has attacked Syria three times since January using Hezbollah as a pretext?

We first have to recognize that Israel’s Syria policy is intentionally kept obscure. Israel is satisfied with the Damascus regime maintaining the status quo on the Golan Heights, but it is also essential for Israel to remove Syria from the resistance axis that nurtures Hezbollah. Openly supporting the opposition, however, would strengthen President Bashar al-Assad’s hand, so Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered his ministers to keep quiet.

Although Israel hesitates when it sees the alternatives to Assad, if the regime were to survive this war it would nevertheless mean nightmares for Israel. Although split over supporting the opposition, Israel has decided that the rebels have to win. I am reaching these conclusions based on the assessments Israeli experts provided to Agence France-Presse.

Preparation for intervention?

The latest operation followed Israel’s attempts to mold public opinion. This was voiced, for example, by former Defense Minister Ben-Eliezer, who said that the Syrians were using chemical weapons and those weapons were reaching the stores of Hezbollah, therefore intervention was justified. In the meantime, the Syrian army again made a mockery of predictions that the regime’s end was near, by inflicting heavy blows on armed groups around Homs and Damascus in recent weeks. Pressures by France and Britain on the EU and Obama administration’s decision to reassess weapons support are signs that the situation on the ground is not all well. It was at this critical juncture that Israel moved.

The following questions are therefore important: Is the United States having Israel do what it cannot do itself? Are Israeli attacks trying to test the regime’s level of reaction? Is this a preparation for a more comprehensive intervention?

Of course Israel wants to show its seriousness over the transfer of game-changer weapons to Hezbollah. Everybody got the message. But we have to consider that Hezbollah could just be a pretext and Israel is arbitrarily expanding the conflict’s dimensions.

Amos Gilad of the Israel Defense Ministry, in contrast to Ben-Eliezer, says Hezbollah was not after chemical weapons and that those weapons were under Assad’s control. There are increasing suspicions that there is an Israeli conspiracy. For example, according to Lawrence Wilkerson, an aide of former US Secretary of State Colin Powell, the use of chemical weapons in Syria could be a covert Israeli operation.

Making it easy for Israel

If the objective of the attack — that was launched with a green light from the United States — wasn’t just a nasty blow to Syria, then we have to consider the opportunism of Israel. Israel was perfectly at ease when launching an attack that could be a casus belli. Netanyahu did not hesitate to go on his five-day trip to China, meaning he wasn’t expecting retaliation. How come he was so comfortable? There are three reasons: the US’s irrevocable security guarantees, tough days its enemies in the region are living through and the overlapping of its interests with the bloc that has become enemies of Assad.

For the United States, there is not much of a risk of a new front opening after the Israeli attack. Israel is already technically at war with Syria and Hezbollah. Damascus did not retaliate following earlier attacks. The probability of retaliation by Hezbollah is higher, but the Shiite organization is shackled by the election process in Lebanon. The cost of any move that could set fire to Lebanon as in 2006 could be much higher this time. A new war with Israel could lead to the disintegration of Lebanon, which is already experiencing tense sectarian conflict because of the war in Syria.  Israel’s real enemy Iran is busy with coming elections in June. Their priority is to safely pull through it without suffering another “green wave” as in 2009.

To find a place in the Sunni bloc

Israel is also comforted by its joint interests with the Sunni bloc regarding the Syrian crisis. According to an Israeli official who spoke to The Sunday Times, Israel wants to join the “moderate Sunni crescent” alongside Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Israel is proposing to share its defense systems and defend Jordan with Arrow missiles in return for access to radars in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Add to that the Arab League’s decision to amend the Arab Peace Plan to include exchange of territory.

Perhaps a bit provocative but the real question is this: In response to its handling of Syria, will a place be found for Israel in the “Sunni axis” it is dreaming of?