WarSclerotic

The airstrikes on long-range missiles in Syria on Thursday night and Sunday morning, which reportedly were conducted by Israel, have left many unanswered questions on both sides of the border. In Syria and Lebanon, people are probably wondering how far Israel will go and whether more airstrikes are imminent. At the same time, people in Israel are wondering how many hits Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah can take before they decide the time has come to respond.

As of Sunday night, it appeared that even the second airstrike, which was more significant than the first and included the targeting of three Fateh-110 missile storage sites, would not lead to an escalation. Despite the threats that were heard on Sunday, Israel doesn’t expect Syria or Hezbollah to respond. Assad fears Israel will topple his regime and Hezbollah is concerned about the erosion of its power at a time that isn’t convenient for it or its patrons in Tehran and Damascus.

Rather than planning a response, the Assad regime and Hezbollah probably spent Sunday internalizing the lessons they learned from the airstrikes. For the second time in 48 hours and the third time in three months, advanced weapons, in which millions of dollars had been invested, were destroyed as they were being covertly moved along the Iran-Syria-Lebanon axis. The Assad regime and Hezbollah are likely struggling to figure out what else Israel knows and when the next airstrike will take place.

The next airstrike probably won’t happen in the coming days. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to China represents a “business as usual” attitude, at least for the next several days. History shows that it isn’t customary to start a war when the prime minister is abroad, especially during a trip of great importance, such as Netanyahu’s to China. But still, one has to wonder what will happen if Israel receives intelligence information in the next few days that weapons are about to be transferred from Syria to Lebanon.

It stands to reason that Israel would launch another attack if it received such information, but Israel knows that every airstrike brings Syria and Hezbollah closer to a decision to respond. For now, the main concern is about an attack on an Israeli embassy overseas. But the deployment of Iron Dome batteries in Haifa and Safed indicates that Israel is preparing for a wide range of possibilities, including a direct response at home. The tension will likely continue for several days before dissipating. But even once the story is out of the headlines, the shadow war will continue, with intelligence being gathered for the next airstrike, which, given the current situation in the region, shouldn’t be too far off.