WarSclerotic

An attack on the road to war?.

Amir Rapaport

5/5/2013

Stockpiles of missiles apparently intended for Hezbollah were attacked again in Syria last night, in an attack that’s being attributed to the Israeli Air Force. If the summer of 2013 ends without war, it will not be taken for granted. With the start of summer, the region is on the verge of reaching a boiling point, and tensions only rose this weekend.

The high level of tension in the Israeli north is currently due to global media reports of attacks directed against long-range surface-to-surface missiles that were apparently intended for Hezbollah. According to the publications, the missiles in question were Syrian-produced M-600s, which would have posed a serious threat from Israel’s perspective had they fallen to the hands of Hezbollah. These missiles can carry warheads weighing nearly half a ton, and have guidance mechanisms that can allow them to hit any target in Israel’s central region with a precision of up to 50 meters.

Furthermore, the missiles are propelled by solid fuel and carried by a portable launcher – meaning that they can be launched within mere minutes, even from Lebanon’s northern areas, making it very difficult for the IAF to prevent their launch.

The M-600 missile is very similar to the Iranian-produced Fateh-110 with regards to its capabilities. In fact, both the Fateh-110 and the M-600 are based on upgraded Chinese missiles, and the main difference between the two is the country of production. According to previous publications, Hezbollah may have received a shipment of Syrian M-600 missiles or Iranian Fateh-110 missiles back in 2010, However Israel is determined to prevent the terror organization from acquiring additional missiles (if it does in fact possess them already).

The weekend attacks attributed to Israel do not come as a surprise. In recent days, there have been reports in Lebanon concerning many IAF sorties, and even reports of Israeli strikes in Syria, which were incorrect (but which may have been ahead of their time). Beyond the sorties, Israeli warnings were made in the recent days, including from the Israeli Minister of Defense Moshe Ya’alon, that Israel will not accept the transfer of strategic weapons from Syria to Lebanon.
The weapons that Israel considers to be strategic weapons that it will not allow to fall into Hezbollah’s hands are SA-17 missiles, Russian-produced shore-to-sea Yakhont missiles, chemical weapons and long-ranged missiles such as the Fateh-110 or M-600 missiles. The last time that an attack of strategic weaponry in Syria intended for Hezbollah was attributed to Israel was four months ago, when it was reported that Israel attacked a convoy of SA-17 missiles.

According to the publications this weekend, the attack that occurred on Friday morning was directed towards a stockpile of surface-to-surface missiles in the area of the Damascus airport.

The attack occurred against the backdrop of the intense combat taking place in the framework of the internal civil war, with Hezbollah combatants, with considerable Iranian assistance in the form of weapons and advisors, standing beside the Bashar al-Assad regime. Israel is assessing that Hezbollah is interested in the transfer of strategic weapons to Lebanese territory in exchange for its support, weapons that are presently on Syrian soil. As it seems, the warnings were not useful and Hezbollah did intend to transfer the weapons soon.

Throughout the weekend, Israel has officially maintained a policy of ambiguity with regards to the reports concerning the attacks. The ambiguity can primarily serve Hezbollah and Syria, as an official Israeli admission to attacks could force them to attack in retaliation. However, Israeli officials knew to say to global media during the weekend that “Israel will continue opposing the transfer of strategic weapons from Syria to Lebanon and will work to prevent such transfers.”

Against the background of the reports, assessments are that an attack such as the one attributed to Israel can be carried out with several quartettes of F-16 aircraft. It is possible that the attack was carried out from within Lebanese territory in order to bypass Syria’s advanced antiaircraft systems. Israel has the ability to attack ground targets from the air, including from ranges of several kilometers, through the use of US armaments launched from the air, or via Spice missiles produced by Rafael. These missiles can identify targets precisely by comparing photos of the target obtained from a camera on the missile to previously stored photos.

Within this, Israeli officials said during the weekend that Israel’s red line concerning Syria and Hezbollah remains as it was – Israel is determined to foil any transfer of strategic weapons from Syria to Lebanon.

However, Israel is working to lower the tension along the northern borders, stemming in part from exercises taking place these weeks in the northern arena. Despite the exercises and the alleged attacks, there have been no signs of force movement or immediate responses on the part of Syria or Hezbollah. However, the Israeli defense establishment is not ruling out that Hezbollah will attempt to respond by way of attacking Israeli targets abroad (Bashar al-Assad is apparently more busy with his civil war than he is preoccupied with the Israeli attacks).

In any case, as time passes towards the peak of the summer, the IDF’s readiness is increasing due to the possibility of the continued deterioration of the situation – on the northern front or with regards to Iran.

This entry was posted on May 6, 2013 at 7:54 AM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.