WarSclerotic

“You live in a tough neighborhood that has become much more difficult in the two years that have elapsed,” U.S. President Barack Obama told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the “strategic team” sitting in on the meeting, including Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Intelligence and International Relations Minister Yuval Steinitz. The three men agreed that the Middle East was indeed quite a tough neighborhood.

They tried to explain to their guest that here the rules are unique to the Middle East. It’s not enough to come here and tell us that you love us in the hope that the neighborhood bad boy will realize it would behoove him not to mess with us. Here, the rules of the game are much more aggressive. When the neighborhood bully runs wild and big brother comes to protect us, it is clear that there will be blows and mayhem, after which it will be evident who’s the boss. When you’re serious, you don’t threaten, and you certainly don’t hold a dialogue with the neighborhood bully.

During his first term in office, Israeli officials accused Obama of not grasping the local lingo. At the start of his presidency, Obama paid a visit to Egypt and called for reconciliation with the Muslim world. When he traveled to Saudi Arabia, he bowed before the king. When the mob took to the streets against his ally, former Egyptian ruler Hosni Mubarak, he gave him the cold shoulder.

While Bashar Assad is butchering his people, the U.S. has refrained from initiating military action. It’s been two years. Aides to the prime minister want Obama to begin his second term by not repeating the mistakes of the past, both on the Syrian issue as well as on the Palestinian question.

Obama was insistent on visiting Israel without paying deference to the local political landscape. The president was adamant that Israel would be the first foreign stop in his second term in office. This president, who was accused by Republicans of throwing Israel under the bus and who had to content with his campaign opponent’s vow that his first visit to a foreign country would be to Israel, proves that yes, he certainly can.

The ceremonial and artistic aspects of the trip were cliché. The climax came in the President’s Residence, where three children sang “Tomorrow” in Hebrew, Arabic, and English. After the performance, the two presidents ventured out to the garden for a short walk. In the guestbook, Obama wrote: “It is a great honor to visit Israel and reaffirm years of friendship between our countries and our people. It is also an honor to be hosted by President [Shimon] Peres who has contributed to every aspect of Israeli society.”

At the conclusion of the visit, Peres movingly gave Obama a gift, a copy of the U.S. president’s book, “Dreams From My Father,” translated into Hebrew. The book was encased in a leather binding, and the title was engraved in gold letters.

In the division of labor that was agreed upon by the prime minister and the president, it was decided that Peres, as the man who is nominally above the political disagreements and the one who is responsible for granting pardons, would raise the uncomfortable issue of an early release for convicted spy Jonathan Pollard, putting a bit of a damper on the festivities. Peres handed Obama a petition that bore the signatures of 200,000 people asking that Pollard be released.

The Palestinians will wait

It was clear to both sides that this visit would have two dimensions. There was the ceremonial pomp that was on display for the public to see, and there was a behind-the-scenes angle that most did not see. The ceremonial aspect included the president’s direct appeal to the Israeli public. The behind-the-scenes talks, which were the key issue, were the ones held between Netanyahu and Obama. Both men delved into the matter of what happens if dialogue with Iran breaks down. The possible scenarios were brainstormed.

Netanyahu could chalk up an accomplishment. During Obama’s first term, the dialogue between him and Obama dealt mostly with the Palestinian question. Netanyahu worked hard to shift the focus to the Iranian threat, and he did so successfully. That is where there is urgency. That is where there is danger. That is where there is an ability to foment change.

On the Palestinian matter, Obama comes here to show that he is involved. This time, he is more realistic. He knows that if he doesn’t succeed, this is hardly a failure since this land has been bleeding for six decades and the two sides have never been able to reach an accord. Obama heard what he wanted to hear from Netanyahu a day before he delivered his remarks at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem — a total commitment to a two-state solution.

Iran first

Without question, the most important achievement gained by Israel as a result of Obama’s visit is the president’s public proclamations on Iran’s nuclear weapons. He reiterated his government’s determination to prevent Iran from developing nuclear arms. Netanyahu and Obama took pains to highlight these areas of agreement while blurring the gaps that remain.

The premier praised Obama for the efforts that have been made so far, including the work done to prevent Iran from advancing in its nuclear project by robust diplomacy as well as increasingly stringent sanctions.

“Despite our joint efforts and your great success in enlisting the support of the international community, the diplomacy and sanctions have thus far failed to stop Iran’s nuclear program,” Netanyahu told the president. “As you know, my position is that in order to stop Iran’s nuclear program peacefully, diplomacy and sanctions need to be backed up by a clear and credible threat of military action.”

From the prime minister’s standpoint, Israel’s achievement could be found in repeated American pledges that Jerusalem had the right to defend itself by itself against any threat. Netanyahu once again likened the horrors of the Nazi regime to the atrocities that the ayatollah regime wishes to inflict on Israel.

“Until a few decades ago, the Jewish people were helpless and powerless against those who wished to destroy it,” he said. “Today we have the right and the ability to defend ourselves. As you noted earlier today, the very essence of the State of Israel, the essence of the revitalization of a Jewish state, is the realization of the lifelong dream shared by the Jewish people, to be masters of their own fate in their own state.”

From Israel’s position, it was pleased to hear Obama’s take on the Iranian nuclear program: “We agree that a nuclear Iran is a threat to the region, a threat to the world, and potentially an existential threat to Israel,” the president said. “We agree on the goal. We do not have a containment policy for a nuclear Iran. Our policy is to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. We prefer to solve this diplomatically, and there is still time to do this. Iran’s leaders must understand that they need to abide by their international commitments.”

“Meanwhile, the international community will continue to increase pressure on the Iranian government,” Obama said. “The U.S. will continue its close consultations with Israel on the next steps that need to be taken, and I repeat: All options are on the table. We will do what is necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining the most destructive weapon on the planet. None of these challenges will be easy. We will have to summon courage and dedication.”

Despite the hoopla and ceremony, it is clear to everyone that the visit will be judge solely on the basis of the quiet understandings that have been reached behind closed doors on the key issues: coordinating moves to stop Iran’s nuclearization; American willingness to ratchet up pressure on Iran; and perhaps the deployment of forces in the Persian Gulf for a possible blockade.

The other key issue that was discussed extensively between the two sides is Syria. The U.S. and the entire West is not intervening militarily to stop the massacre being committed by Bashar Assad against his people. So far, over 70,000 people have died in the slaughter, and millions of others have suffered. There are sanctions in place against Syria as well as the widespread understanding that Assad needs to go, but there is no on-the-ground intervention.

Israel wants Western intervention in the event that chemical weapons are used either against the Syrian people or if these arms fall into the hands of Hezbollah or other Lebanon-based terrorist organizations. If terrorists get their hands on these weapons it will tilt the balance of terror in the region, something that Israel will not allow. In this scenario, Israel will also act to defend itself, but the keyword in its dealings with the U.S. is coordination and more coordination.

Netanyahu repeated an earlier declaration that his government is committed to the two-state solution. By doing so, the premier wanted to make it abundantly clear that he was not backtracking from his Bar-Ilan speech in light of the presence of Naftali Bennett’s party, which is known to oppose a Palestinian state, in the coalition. Netanyahu even made sure to arrange a meeting between Obama and the head of the Hatnuah movement, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, who will head the Israeli negotiating team in talks with the Palestinians.

“Let’s work together to reach a historic compromise that will end the conflict once and for all,” Netanyahu told the president.

All the president’s visits

This is the 10th time that Netanyahu and Obama have met as prime minister and president. It seems that both sides are intent on starting anew for the sake of maintaining good ties between their countries. Obama reiterated his commitment to Israel’s security, which is non-negotiable. He declared that close military and defense cooperation would continue, and that American aid to Israel would be unaffected. According to estimates, the U.S. has spent $900 billion in aiding Israel since its founding. As time has gone by, the relationship has grown stronger.

Similar to the first time, experts believe that during Obama’s second term in office, the U.S. expects Israel will make every effort to advance on the Palestinian track in exchange for the close cooperation between the governments on the Iranian matter. Obama sounded wistful in regretting that he was unable to clinch a deal during his first term. “Apparently I messed up,” he said. He will try to rectify his mistake during the second term, this time with the help of newly installed Secretary of State John Kerry.

After Obama takes off from Israel, Kerry will head back to the region to try to jumpstart the peace process. Another important visit will be made by Chuck Hagel, the new defense secretary. He is scheduled to meet with his Israeli counterpart, Moshe Ya’alon, in Israel next month. Here, too, there appears to be a long way to go until these two men who head their respective defense establishments feel comfortable working with one another.

Ya’alon will fill the shoes of Ehud Barak, a veteran, long-serving defense minister who held the job for seven years and forged deep, intimate ties with the Americans. Without a full-time foreign minister in place, Ya’alon’s handling of the American portfolio will take on added importance.

Five presidents have visited Israel. The first to do so was Richard Nixon, who arrived in 1974. That trip symbolized the warm ties between the two countries. Five years later, Jimmy Carter made a trip here. He arrived two weeks before the signing of the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, and he sought to advance peace talks as a continuation to the Camp David agreement. During that visit, Carter met with then Prime Minister Menachem Begin. Afterward, he flew to Egypt to meet with Anwar Sadat, who signed off on the understandings that Carter had reached in Israel.

The next presidential visit was made by Bill Clinton in 1994. Clinton was here to attend the signing ceremony of the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty, which he had helped craft. The ceremony, which was hosted by Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and King Hussein, was held near the border crossing just north of Eilat.

Clinton’s next visit was to attend Rabin’s funeral. In 1996, Clinton was here again, this time as part of an international peace conference in Sharm el-Sheikh to discuss ways to combat terrorism. Clinton arrived in 1998 to attend the signing ceremony of the Wye Plantation Agreements, during which he met with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The next visit by a president was made by Clinton’s successor, George W. Bush, in January 2008. During the trip, which was part of Bush’s Middle East tour, the president met with his Israeli counterpart, Ehud Olmert, and with Peres. Bush also attended the 60th anniversary celebrations of Israel’s independence.

How will history remember the visit by America’s current commander in chief? Israeli officials believe that the anti-Iranian message and Washington’s commitment to coordinate moves are of great importance. Now all that is left to do is wait and see to what extent words will impact actions.