WarSclerotic

The head of the IDF’s Directorate of Military Intelligence, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, spoke today at the Herzliya Convention, and presented a somber picture of the defensive situation and the threats Israel faces these days. Maj. Gen. Kochavi discussed the Iranian threat, and referred to it as the central threat, and that “Iran’s nuclear program is progressing slower than planned, but it is advancing. Despite all of the sanctions, Iran’s uranium enrichment rate reaches nearly 14 kilograms of uranium per month, giving Iran the ability to develop 4-5 bombs should a decision be made to do so. Iran does not consider the chances of a global attack against its nuclear facilities to be high, and it will continue to develop the nuclear program in a short amount of time. Partial concessions are possible, but essential concessions are not,” said Kochavi.

He also discussed the arenas closer to Israel, and said that “for the first time in decades, Israel has four active borders with possibilities for terrorist attacks: Lebanon, Syria, Egypt and Gaza. Global Jihad is exploiting the broken borders as well as the lack of governance, and is guiding its operatives to carry out a more local jihad, on the borders of Israel. The actual significance of this matter – flooding the borders with new terrorist organizations, Sinai as well as the Syrian-Israeli border.”

According to Maj. Gen. Kochavi, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is carrying out advanced preparations for the use of chemical weapons, though he has not given the command to use them. “Assad is preserving control of the chemical weapons, the air force and the fire layouts. He began handling the events as protests, moved on to firearms and then switched to artillery, air force, napalm and lately Scud missiles with 200 and 300-kilogram explosive warheads.” He added that “At the start of the events, the military numbered nearly 360,000 soldiers, and today it is down by 13,000 fatalities and 40,000 deserters. The readiness status is low, from the equipment and up to manpower.”

With regards to the unrest of the Palestinian street, Kochavi said that “there are no strengths like a third intifada. However, in light of the rocky situation in the Middle East, the ability to come to an agreement in the coming years is decreasing.”

According to Kochavi, Hamas was badly damaged during Operation Pillar of Defense. “Hamas was unable to reach military or propaganda achievements, and therefore the failure is singed into the organizations’ consciousness. However, it did attain strategic achievements, such as leading the resistance within the Palestinian population and being embraced by Egypt and Turkey. Hamas needs time to rehabilitate itself, and it has decided to focus on the political strategic plain, because it recognizes opportunity in light of the rise of the Sunnis and the PA’s distress, into which it can enter in order to achieve reconciliation and even take over the PA.”

Kochavi also referred to Hezbollah’s present situation, and said that “the organization, which is already in one of its worst periods of time, is doing everything in order to help Assad survive. This includes military and strategic advice, financial assistance, weapons and ammunition, fighting forces and the establishment of a popular army in Syria.” According to Kochavi, Iran and Hezbollah are using this opportunity to get the military capabilities that they want: air-to-sea missiles, air defense and advanced weapons. “They are preparing for the day after, in order to protect their interests in the post-Assad era.”