WarSclerotic

Israel’s Intensifying Fronts.

Amir Rapaport

8/2/2013

While Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, IDF Chief of Staff, received the Legion of Merit decoration from the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff in Washington (on behalf of the US president and secretary of defense), three fronts that determine the IDF’s agenda intensified in Israel.

The most intense border in Israel is the northern one. The attacks that took place last week in Syria, which foreign publications attribute to Israel, do not represent a one-time event that is fading away. Several senior Israeli officials (including the minister of defense) stated that Israel is preparing to consistently prevent Hezbollah’s acquisition of strategic weaponry. This is an active policy which is advanced in the IDF by the Deputy Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, and the head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi.

If the Israeli statements are well-established (and there is no reason to assess that they aren’t), it is quite possible that another attack was also carried out this week, in Lebanon or in Syria. In light of the stated Israeli policy, the northern tension has only escalated. There is no expectation of massive rocket launch towards Israel, but it is possible that Syria or Hezbollah will make use of a cover organization to carry out a launch or two, without leaving fingerprints pointing to the identity of who sent it. It’s more likely that efforts are underway now to carry out a retaliatory terror attack against Israeli targets abroad or in Israel. In the past year, the Shabak caught a Hezbollah network for smuggling advanced explosives to “dormant” cells in Israel. It is quite possible that not all of the smuggling attempts were foiled, and not all the cells were exposed – perhaps this is what senior Iranian officials meant when they threatened that Tel Aviv will suffer for the attack in Syria.

The considerable media exposure this week for the findings of the Bulgarian investigation into the August 2012 terror attack is of no actual security significance. Israel’s Shabak and Mossad have already known for a while that Hezbollah was behind the attack, with Iranian assistance, just as it was the one behind terrorist attacks and attempted attacks with similar characteristics in the past year or two – in India, Thailand, Azerbaijan and in Cyprus. The attacks were linked to Hezbollah’s decision to avenge the death of Imad Mughniyah in 2008 – also attributed to Israel – and not the recent tension that began due to the deterioration taking place in Syria.

Meanwhile, from the Israeli side, the high degree of tension is expressed in the wider deployment of three Iron Dome batteries in the north (the most extensive deployment of the Iron Dome layout in this area to date). Furthermore, other measures were also deployed in the north such as the Raz radar operated by the Israeli Air Force, which provides warnings for both fire and air movement. It has also been revealed that the IDF ordered the evacuation of aircraft from the civilian airfield in Haifa, and it seems the tension is also connected to this unprecedented measure. These are just the visible aspects of the tremendous tension.

Iran

The high level of tension in the north is also directly linked to Syria and Hezbollah’s real patron: the Iranian regime. The full story with regards to Iran is, of course, Israel’s desire to prevent the Ayatollah regime from obtaining nuclear weapons, and the situation is intensifying with regards to that aspect as well. After the establishment of the second Obama administration, Secretary of Defense nominee Chuck Hagel cautiously stated that “the option of a military operation against Iran, should the need arise, must not be taken off the table.”

From the US perspective, the gathering of forces in the Middle East and in front of the Persian Gulf will begin towards the coming spring. In addition to the increased military threat, the US will operate to increase the economic pressure (again). Iran is scheduled to have elections in June. The exacerbation of the economic situation could bring millions of Iranians out into the streets, undermining the stability of the regime. Therefore, the US and Western window of opportunity for exerting effective pressure on Iran is between the months of March and June.

The US will not rush to attack, and Iran will not rush to abandon its nuclear program (it will seek ways to continue it in defiance or in secrecy). However, it is quite possible that the planned Israeli visits of US President Barack Obama and Chuck Hagel are tied to the Iranian issue no less than the political issue, as the media was inclined to estimate this week. Obama and Hagel may be coming in order to coordinate positions towards a potential attack, or rather to keep Israel in line so as not to attack on its own (the fact of having to wait for the visits will constitute a consideration in the Israeli decision on a potential attack).

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