Hezbollah doesn’t want war with Israel if Syria is weakened
Hezbollah doesn’t want war with Israel if Syria is weakened – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.
It seems that Hezbollah, which has still not responded to the attack, is not interested in opening a front against Israel out of fear of a massive Israeli retaliation, without getting Syrian aid.
While Lebanon insists that Israeli planes may have overflown the country on Wednesday four times, they still ardently deny that an attack took place in its territory. And the Syrian media took a long time to relate the event at all. In the evening, Syrian television finally reported that Israeli planes had attacked a research center in a move that it said was designed “to strengthen the opposition” in Jamraya in the Damascus area. Syrian television went on to say that this was proof of cooperation between Syrian terrorists and Israel, but denied that Israeli planes had attacked a convoy moving from Syria to Lebanon.
The website of the Syrian opposition has details and even a map showing that the attack was on a missile convoy on its way from the Yafour complex near the border with Lebanon, near the base of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The official Syrian response, however, which ignored the bombing of the convoy and which denied any attack in Lebanon, may be evidence of the huge difficulties the Syrian regime is facing. According to reports from Lebanon, the Syrians didn’t even fire at the Israeli planes.
About a year ago, there was a widespread sense that Hezbollah and Syria could open a new front against Israel to deflect world attention from what was going on inside Syria, and perhaps to recruit rebels to a joint national battle. Now it appears that even the Israeli strike in Syria would not bring about a change in the opposition’s position toward the Assad regime.
The location of the attack is not clear. One assessment from Lebanon is that the convoy that was attacked included long-range missiles as well as anti-aircraft missiles − all belonging to Hezbollah. These missiles were given to the Syrians for safekeeping so that Israel would not attack them inside Lebanon. As the Syrian regime lost control, Hezbollah decided to return the missiles to Lebanese territory to prevent them from falling into rebel hands. It seems that Hezbollah, which has still not responded to the attack, is not interested in opening a front against Israel out of fear of a massive Israeli retaliation, without getting Syrian aid. This is the reason for the “quiet” and the Lebanese denial that the attack took place within Lebanese territory − if it indeed took place there. As for Syria, even if the attack took place within its territory, the Assad regime will find it difficult to open a new front against Israel.
Until now Israel has avoided becoming involved in events in Syria. But if indeed an attack took place Wednesday it could hint to other countries, like Turkey and the United States, that a military attack on Syria to topple the regime may be an option. It is interesting that Russia, which fiercely objects to military intervention in Syria, has also yet to respond to the attack. Russia’s response, if one comes, could hint to Assad and also other nations, the extent to which Moscow is willing to tolerate a military attack on Syria.
Despite Wednesday’s attack, if such an attack took place, it seems the efforts to move weapons from Syria to Lebanon will continue, and may well drag Israel deeper and deeper into the Syrian campaign. Additional Israeli attacks will put the policy of Western nations to a test. The dilemma is that if Israel is allowed to strike Syria or Lebanon to prevent the transfer of weapons, and if Western nations have already agreed that any use of chemical weapons will be met with a military response, then why not attack Syria to save thousands of people and bring down the Assad regime?
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