WarSclerotic

If foreign news outlets are correct in reporting that Israel Air Force attacked a convoy carrying advanced anti-aircraft missiles near the Syria-Lebanon border, as well as a military research institute near Damascus, then we are dealing with a significant event. As a bloody civil war rages in Syria, this appears to be the first time since the Arab Spring ignited in Tunisia in Dec. 2010, that Israel is playing an active role in events — as reported by foreign news sources. How can Syrian President Bashar al-Assad be expected to react?

As reports of the alleged attack emerged Wednesday night, we heard sweeping denials from Lebanon and silence from Damascus. Nor did Iran rush to respond. Syria took time reacting because it would have been much easier to keep silent. However, the alleged attack was probably a major event and Assad no longer has control of his country or the flow of information within it.

A European correspondent in Israel called me on Wednesday asking if there’s a story. At first glance, it appears to be a major story. If it is true that just before the alleged attack the head of Israel’s military intelligence visited the Pentagon, a high ranking Israeli was dispatched to Moscow and the air force commander warned about the dangers facing Israel, “from knives to nuclear weapons,” this is indeed a sticky situation.

Assad’s image

What are Assad’s options? Since the uprising against him began two years ago Assad’s regime has been undergoing a process of slow but certain collapse. Things have deteriorated a great deal recently, leading Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to concede in a CNN interview that the Syrian regime is living on borrowed time. Syria’s neighbors, including Turkey and Israel, are giving off clear signals of nervousness.

On top of the danger of regime collapse, there is a serious danger that chemical weapons will trickle out of the country. This is a scenario that calls for a decisive response from neighboring countries.

On the one hand, Assad may be tempted to respond to Israel’s alleged attack. In his current situation, it could only improve his image. Assad is currently the world’s most hated man, including in the Arab world. Doing battle against Israel is a guaranteed popularity booster in the Muslim world. Assad would need to inflict some serious damage to get people to forget the 60,000 Syrian dead and 700,000 refugees he has caused. But the entire Syrian military is occupied with fighting the rebels — there are no troops to spare against Israel.

In addition, a Syrian military response would bring about an Israeli retaliation. The last thing the Syrian regime wants is an entanglement outside its borders. Assad is hanging by the skin of his teeth, and not for much longer, it seems. A military response to Israel — he possesses the weapons for it in his arsenal — would lead to his regime’s rapid demise.

Even the rebels would prefer to receive help from anyone but Israel. They too probably don’t want Assad to respond, even if it accelerated his collapse. In short, we can safely say that should Assad strike out against Israel, he will fall. If he doesn’t act, he will fall, but at a later date. Most likely Assad would prefer the second option.

So why did Syria and Lebanon deny knowledge of an attack at first, and why did Syria eventually come out with it? Fully aware that his ability to respond is limited, shouldn’t Assad have remained silent? Imagine the further damage to his image in not responding to an alleged Israeli attack.

Nor was Lebanon eager to make an admission. The last thing they need is to concede that Hezbollah acts as if it owns the country. Besides, it is trendy to talk about Hezbollah these days as if it were a charity. And what could an aid organization possibly want to do with missiles?

Except that very late Wednesday night the Syrians did make their announcement, and what an announcement it was. Not only was there a strike on an arms convoy, but on a military installation as well, they said.

And what about Iran? An aide to Iranian spiritual leader Ali Khamenei threatened that any attack on Syria is an attack against Iran. Do the Iranians really want to enter the fray over an arms convoy, even before they’ve completed their nuclear program? Assad’s announcement puts them in a pickle as well.

For these reasons, it might be more convenient for all concerned to continue as if nothing happened. At the same time, this story contains all the elements that could lead to a full-scale war. Wednesday’s announcement from the Syrian military has definitely placed us all on high alert. We knew that the Arab Spring would be dangerous. We knew that events in Syria have a direct bearing on us — we just didn’t know by how much. If Israel indeed did what foreign newspapers are alleging it did, then the ball is in Assad’s court. The problem is that the Syrian ruler no longer has a court, nor does he have much to lose. A wounded tiger is the most dangerous of all.