WarSclerotic

Though no official Israeli source has confirmed the putative IDF strike on an arms convoy traveling near the Syria-Lebanon border, the reality on Israel’s northern border appears to be getting more and more complex and problematic.

Israel clarified recently that the transfer of chemical weapons and long-range weapons from Syria to Hezbollah or to any other non-state organization would be “a cause for war.” Fueling Israel’s concerns is the possibility that Hezbollah — a terrorist organization that is helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad battle the armed rebellion — will assume control over Syrian bases and transfer strategic weapons, and possibly even chemical weapons, to their strongholds in the Beqaa Valley.

It would be equally problematic for Israel if such weapons were to fall in the hands of Islamist groups within Syria itself. That scenario would require a confrontation with organizations seeking to infuse a dimension of instability into the regional power structure, and operating out of a “no man’s land.”

Tensions have escalated on the northern front over the last week. Israel’s deployment of two Iron Dome batteries in northern Israel and the military and defense establishment’s vigorous remarks, about the inevitable collapse of Syria, indicate that Israel’s decision-makers have adopted a new assessment of the situation.

It appears that in recent days there have been significant developments in Syria’s power equation, suggesting that Assad is losing his grip on non-conventional weapons stockpiles. Damascus’ demise is accelerating, and with Syria’s huge arsenal of weapons — some of which are unconventional — a complex reality arises. The IDF operation — if it was really Israel that did it — was intended to send a powerful message to Syria and Hezbollah, namely that Israel is fully present in the Syria-Lebanon situation and will respond accordingly should Syria be caught transferring strategic weapons to Hezbollah.

It is very clear that the other nations bordering Syria share Israel’s concern over non-conventional weapons ending up in “irresponsible” hands. It is safe to assume that Israel, Turkey and Jordan want to prepare themselves adequately for Assad’s fall. Therefore, various regional actors have begun collecting intelligence and making contingency plans. Still, they must all keep in mind, especially Israel, that any action along the sensitive borders of Syria and Lebanon could spark a chain reaction and escalate into an unforeseeable situation. In dealing with Syria, all countries surrounding Syria must coordinate their objectives and make sure that the U.S. and Russia are supportive, even if the solution is only partial. The fact that Israeli defense officials have been visiting Washington and Moscow recently is indicative of Israel’s growing concern, but also of Israel’s desire to establish wide leverage on the Syrian non-conventional weapons issue.

Either way, the Middle East is on the brink of an irrevocable geopolitical shift. The multitude of possible scenarios regarding Syria’s outcome shows that this future is largely obscure. It appears that the Arab Spring has been particularly detrimental to the stability of societies and nations in the Fertile Crescent. The multi-ethnic mosaic that was held together for decades by a dictatorial power structure and an iron fist is beginning to crumble into its various components. When a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that “an attack on Syria is considered an attack on Iran,” it became apparent that the total sum of threats was steadily rising. The fact that Islamist bodies, seeking to foment a new agenda, have attached themselves to the Syrian opposition, is a foolproof recipe for ongoing instability and turmoil.

Syria’s collapse will likely impact Iraq’s and Lebanon’s security as well. It appears that the ethno-religious element, particularly the Shiite-Sunni schism, will largely define the future of this region.

Prof. Rabi is the director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East Studies at Tel Aviv University.