WarSclerotic

Even Syria death toll of 60,000 unlikely to revolutionize world leaders into action – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

( I’m waiting for Israel to somehow be blamed for the Arab savagery and the West’s fecklessness. – JW )

Lacking international consensus on outside military intervention, and since opposition forces, political and military, also oppose foreign intervention, a resolution in Syria depends on the rebels’ ability to seize key locations.

By Zvi Bar’el | Jan.03, 2013 | 3:37 PM | 18

A Jordanian army vehicle transporting Syrian refugees last month. A UN report Wednesday put the death toll in the Syrian civil war at 60,000. Photo by Reuters

By DPA | Jan.03,2013 | 3:37 PM | 1

The shocking new revelation that the number of dead in the fighting in Syria is some 20,000 higher than previous estimates is itself based on an estimate. It seems the United Nations is presenting an exact figure, but as the UN’s Human Rights Commissioner Navanethem Pillay admits, the numbers may possibly be much higher. Only a few days ago the UN’s special peace envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi said the number could reach 100,000.

The huge numbers of those killed should be shocking. That is how it was when we counted 1,000 dead in Syria, and how it was when the number reached 10,000. Even the daily toll of the dead, which rose from just a few to 400 only three days ago, moved world leaders. But even then they made do with condemnations, verbal lashings and hollow calls to Syrian President Bashar Assad to leave.

Whoever thinks of the numbers of dead in Darfur, Rwanda, Algeria or Iraq still cannot say even approximately if the number there was 100,000 or 300,000 people since Saddam Hussein fell; and it is hard to believe that the announcement of the new number for deaths in Syria will generate a revolution in the positions of world leaders, who are having a hard time formulating a joint policy as to what actions must be taken in Syria.

The battles in Syria will not end or be decided because of the huge number of deaths. Moreover, since it is not clear how many of the dead are soldiers or civilians, and among the civilians how many were supporters of the Assad regime and how many were its opponents; Sunnis versus Alawites; and whether Syria is already deep in a factional civil war or is the national struggle causing the greatest number of killings.

Lacking international consensus on outside military intervention, and since opposition forces, political and military, also oppose foreign intervention, a resolution in Syria depends on the rebels’ ability to seize key locations such as government buildings, airports, main roads and border crossings – as well as how much they can damage Assad’s limited web of control. Some of these sites are already controlled by the opposition, such as the main highway between Daraa and Damascus, the airport in Aleppo and the airport in Damascus, which was not captured but is threatened by the rebels and flights to and from it have been halted. Many of the border crossings between Syria and Turkey and Iraq have also been captured by opposition forces – some of whom are not acting in coordination.

Another possible chance for resolution depends on Assad’s recognition that he has lost the battle and must prepare himself for the stage of retreat from power. Until now, there were no signs shown publicly that Assad intends to give up or leave. True, he announced he was ready at any time to negotiate with the opposition, but he is not willing to accept the basic premise that he must leave and not be part of the negotiations.

Russia’s vacillating positions – which once say they are not committed to Assad but to democracy and public order in the country, and another time reject the condition that Assad must forfeit his power – also provide Assad with support for the continued existence of his regime. The realistic forecast for now is that the number of dead will only rise and the battles will continue to divide the opposition forces, without being able even to agree on the establishment of a temporary government.

Hovering over this forecast is the troubling and terrifying question as to the ability of Syrian citizens to continue and suffer losses – and nonetheless continue to rebel. At this stage, it seems that public opinion is no longer relevant, since it is no longer a matter of demonstrations against the regime but the transfer of the struggle to the armed opposition forces, who are the ones with the monopoly on the continuation of the struggle.

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