WarSclerotic

The winds of war suddenly disappeared on Monday. Perhaps too quickly, given that about 120 missiles were fired on Israel that day.

Israelis and Gazans ran back and forth between their homes and the bomb shelters. But many could be heard talking about the Gaza operation in the past tense, as if it was all but over. Even the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange rallied on Monday after investors became convinced a cease-fire was a done deal.

Everyone wanted an agreement to end the hostilities, but the feeling that a deal was already in place was all too dangerous. The government and the Israel Defense Forces appeared to be working overtime in search of some lull. The top brass did not want to jeopardize the gains made by Israel during the campaign, and the politicians’ minds were elsewhere: the coming party primaries in which they will compete for slots on their Knesset party lists.

Normalcy was just around the corner, but that feeling of business as usual was premature.

The yearning for calm is understandable. Israel was dragged into this campaign unwillingly, although some cynical pundits said this was nothing but election season gimmickry. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have been praised for being humble and showing a sense of purpose and determination as they wage this campaign. In 2008-9, during Operation Cast Lead, the whole world was united against us and Israel was faced with a problematic outcome. The results of Operation Pillar of Defense are more promising, although only time will tell whether they suffice. This time around, the international community has been largely on our side.

The surgical strikes orchestrated by IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz allowed Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to adopt levelheaded rhetoric in his conversations with counterparts in the enlightened world. The decision to call up reserve forces was a wise decision. Even if those troops are spared a ground campaign inside the Gaza Strip, this will have happened because of the decision to deploy them along the border in the first place.

Former Defense Minister MK Amir Peretz (Labor) should also be credited for the progress the IDF has made so far. He overruled former IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi when the latter wanted to scrap the Iron Dome interceptor project. Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Independence), Peretz’s successor, also refused to heed Ashkenazi’s pleas, despite the fact that Peretz and Barak were political adversaries. Bingo.

It is too early to tell whether Operation Pillar of Defense will go down as a success story. This is a classic case of “time will tell.” Such “time” should be measured, above all, by how many days of calm Israelis get to enjoy as a result of this campaign.

The message Barak and Netanyahu sounded during their press conference on the first day of the campaign was designed to generate only modest expectations. But the de facto goal is to reach the longest possible truce. While Operation Pillar of Defense may very well achieve its goals, the goals could (and perhaps should) have been more ambitious had Israel’s leadership not been so reluctant to pursue more.

Should Israel try to topple the Hamas regime? Perhaps one of the lessons from Operation Pillar of Defense is that if another campaign has to be waged in a year or two — the third such effort in the span of one decade — Israel would be well-served by a national unity government running the show. Such a government would be the most qualified to orchestrate a ground campaign and divide the Gaza Strip into distinct units, after which Hamas would implode and Israel would get to install a new regime. It is one thing to ask Israelis to support an aerial campaign of several days. When it comes to the re-occupation of the Gaza Strip, such an effort must enjoy across-the-board consensus.

Meanwhile, negotiations are going on through several channels, with Cairo serving as the epicenter. We should let Egypt set the rules for the cease-fire and have it assume responsibility for its outcome. However, it is quite unfortunate that Israel’s top negotiator for the talks — a prominent Mossad official — is nowhere to be seen. It is even more worrisome that Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi has yet to emerge from behind the scenes and talk about his role in the truce talks.