WarSclerotic

Similar to the last round of fighting, on Monday two terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip tried to control the events that were unfolding.

At a meeting of all the terror groups (bar the Salafis) in Gaza on Monday night, they declared that they would stop firing rockets and mortars at Israel (based on certain conditions, namely, that Israel not fire into the Gaza Strip). This may have been an attempt to prevent what may be about to hit them.

In Gaza, the terrorist groups paid close attention to the Israeli media and understood that Israelis’ blood was boiling. Citizens’ sense that they have been abandoned, the heated rhetoric from politicians ahead of elections, leaks that the Israel Defense Forces are already putting the finishes touches on operational plans — all translated in Gaza to one clear headline: The clock is almost done ticking. The game is almost over. Israel is about to attack.

Hamas, which led the move for a cease-fire, with Egyptian encouragement, understood very well that it was soon to become the main target of a future attack. Hamas has recently raised its head and returned to operations against Israel. It stopped hiding behind recalcitrant terrorist groups and began acting openly, in plain sight, clearly claiming responsibility.

On Saturday its operatives launched an antitank rocket at an IDF jeep; on Sunday they led the efforts to fire Katyusha rockets at Sderot, and on Monday it dictated the de-escalation. This was a multipronged effort on the diplomatic-military-public relations fronts intended to re-establish Hamas as the omnipotent power in Gaza.

Israeli officials saw the picture but didn’t translate it into action. Only on Tuesday morning did Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, finally, hold an organized, comprehensive meeting over Israel’s policy toward the Hamas-governed territory and what role the IDF would have in that policy.

Until a new policy is adopted, the old one, according to which the Israeli interest is to “contain” the situation, remains in effect. Operationally, this means the IDF acts to thwart rocket fire and hits rocket-launching crews, and responds in a proportionate, minimal manner to avoid an escalation.

The IDF believes that this policy, which has been successfully maintained since Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009, is no longer effective. An active Hamas is dangerous, and is liable to raise the stakes every day. A country that does not respond to frequent rocket fire on its southern communities, sustains hits to its units operating over the Gaza border, and displays restraint even under such circumstances, can expect to get hit on its own side of the border as well.

If we are seduced by the illusion of the temporary quiet Hamas is offering, we will soon wake up to face an even worse reality. The IDF has recommended changing the rules of the game. Even if this doesn’t happen immediately, it will start from the next round. The IDF wants advance authorization for much harsher retaliation the moment the next round of rocket attack begins. The IDF is prepared to respond in several “stages” with a range of actions, subject to orders from the political leadership.

It is to be assumed that such advance authorization will be given to the IDF, in conjunction with compliance to a final green light at the time and place; a green light that considers questions of diplomacy, legitimacy, local politics and even the weather.

If this happens, one can assume that the IDF will move past hitting marginal “real estate” targets in favor of something more substantial — terrorist headquarters, warehouses, infrastructure and individuals.

Each stage will follow the one before it, subject to the other side’s response, and ultimately leads to the possibility of a ground invasion into Gaza.

An Israeli minister expressed hope on Monday that the mere threat of an invasion would be enough to provide deterrence and delay the arrival of the next round. An IDF general, asked to respond to the minister, smiled and said, “The events of the past few days have proved that the Palestinians can certainly be trusted to provide the goods.”