WarSclerotic

SAN FRANCISCO – When US President Barack Obama wakes up Thursday morning and starts thinking about his second term and the legacy he realistically hopes to leave, it is doubtful securing a comprehensive Middle East peace will be high on his list.

Not because he does not want to go down as the US president to have secured that elusive goal, but rather because of a realization that this is beyond his grasp.

That, at least, will have to be Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s wish when he himself wakes up to a second Obama term on Thursday. And it will likely be a wish that will be granted.

A lot has changed in the four years since Obama, soon after his inauguration in 2009, appointed George Mitchell as his Middle East envoy and set Palestinian-Israeli peace as his administration’s top Middle East priority.

First of all, the Middle East looks nothing now like it did then.

With Syria imploding, Egypt going through a deep change, Iran continuing its relentless march toward nuclear arms, and political Islam on the rise throughout the region, reaching a Palestinian-Israeli agreement does not hold the same urgency right now. Obama has a lot of other issues in the region that are currently more pressing.

And that is something Netanyahu has to be thankful for.

Most acknowledge that the Obama-Netanyahu relationship needs a reset. Not the US-Israeli relationship, but rather the Obama-Netanyahu relationship. And that is not an insignificant difference.

US-Israel ties are wide and broad and are not at the whim of any one individual, even a president returning for his second term.

When it comes to Israel, as Obama found out during his first two years in office, there are limits to how far he can push the envelope. This became apparent in the spring/summer of 2010, after the disastrous visit by Vice President Joe Biden and Israel’s announcement of new building in the Ramat Shlomo neighborhood. At that point, Israeli-US ties hit a nadir.

At a certain point, when New York Senator Charles Schumer went on the radio criticizing Obama on Israel, Obama realized that he was pushing too hard too fast, and his tone changed dramatically. This is when it became clear to him that there were limits and restraints governing how much he could alter the US-Israel relationship.

The doom and gloomers argue, however, that now that Obama does not have to run for re-election, he will have to worry less about political allies like Schumer, and can “take off the gloves.”

But can he?

Obama did not seek re-elections so he could just oversee the government. He has a domestic, economic agenda that he wants to push. Indeed, in his lofty victory speech Tuesday night in Chicago he made almost no mention of foreign affairs, concentrating instead on domestic issues.

And for Obama to successfully push his domestic agenda, carve out a domestic legacy for himself, he is still going to need political allies, even during a second term. Even if he wanted to do so, and few think he actually would, he would not be able to ignore the massive support for Israel that remains in Congress. Doing so could make it difficult for him to push forward his domestic priorities, at a time when the American public is clamoring for a break to Washington’s gridlock and he will need to somehow win cooperation from the Republican-led House.

Although Obama cannot seek re-election, Congress will be facing the electorate in two short years. And while Obama may no longer have to consider Jewish voters or donors, those in his party seeking re-election will need to do so, and are sure to make their voices heard to the president.

In other words, do not expect any dramatic changes to the Administrations’ polices toward Israel now that Obama has won a second term. What was is what will be, for better and for worse. Also, expect voices to be raised now saying that this is the natural time to push the reset button in the rocky ties between Netanyahu and Obama.

And, indeed, that reset, may be pushed. But not immediately.

Israel is now 76 days away from its own elections, elections the Obama Administration would just as clearly like to see Netanyahu lose, as Netanyahu would rather have liked to see Republican candidate Mitt Romney win on Tuesday night.

The reset will come when both leaders realize they have common interests to pursue and will have to live with each other for another four years.

Netanyahu now realizes he will have to live with Obama for four more years. The same cannot be said in reverse, at least not yet, not until our elections on January 22. That reset, if Netanyahu wins, will only begin on January 23.