WarSclerotic

Israel was busy on the southern front on Wednesday, both in the Gaza Strip and also, according to foreign reports, in Sudan.

The escalation in Gaza stemmed from the damage that Hamas has suffered recently. There have been 20 deaths in Gaza in the past two weeks and eight within the past 48 hours, including five Hamas members. For the sake of comparison, only one Hamas operative was killed in Gaza in the year leading up to this round of escalation, and his death was accidental. Hamas let loose, but still made sure to not break the rules of the game. It did not fire any long-range rockets and focused on “legitimate” warfare near the border fence. Its reason for this was to avoid causing civilian casualties in Israel that would give the Israeli government an excuse to broaden the fighting.

The relatively determined response of the Israel Defense Forces, along with Israel’s explicit threat to cause more harm, led to Hamas believing it had had enough in this round. Senior Hamas officials cried out to Cairo and asked the Egyptians to mediate an unofficial cease-fire. Israel, as usual, responded positively and demanded that the cease-fire apply to all terrorist organizations operating in Gaza. On Wednesday night, it appeared that Hamas was indeed acting to impose a cease-fire on all terrorist factions in Gaza. It therefore seems that the current round of fighting has come to an end. Two other reasons for reaching a cease-fire were the rainy conditions that are predicted for the coming weekend and the desire of Hamas to honor the sanctity of the Eid Al-Adha holiday that starts Thursday evening.

On a more distant front, in Sudan, there are more question marks than answers. There is no doubt that an attack took place, but who attacked exactly what and with which means? Past experience teaches us that reports like those received yesterday tend to be correct for the most part, meaning that an attack certainly occurred. Sudan is a large arms depot and also a transit point for Iranian weapons being shipped to destinations in the Middle East (Lebanon and Gaza). The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is active in Sudan, including running weapons manufacturing factories. Was one of these factories the target in this case? Possibly, but it could also be that the official report coming from Sudan was meant to hide something that Sudan is trying to keep secret.

The question of who launched the attack is also still not completely clear. Foreign reports have tied Israel to many past operations in Sudan, including the sinking of ships, the bombing of convoys and the assassinations of terrorist operatives, making it natural for the finger to also be pointed at Israel this time. The IDF has the capabilities and means to conduct such a strike, irrespective of whether the attack was in fact carried out by fighter jets or not. Israel, as is its custom, was silent about the reports from Sudan, and it also will not respond to threats of revenge emanating from Khartoum, to retain full ambiguity. One can assume that if Israel was indeed responsible for the attack, the target was important enough to justify the difficulties and risks involved in such a long-distance operation.

Although there was seemingly no connection between the fighting in Gaza and the attack in Sudan, there is a clear common denominator for Israel in the two arenas — to prevent terrorism and create deterrence. How much deterrence was created? Past experience does not tell us much. The gap between rounds of escalation, as well as between weapons smuggling attempts, is shrinking. And with the exposed nerves and political tension here in Israel, along with the piles of gunpowder over there on the other side of the border, it can be assumed that fighting in the south will resume again soon.