WarSclerotic

by Peter Lyukimson, Israel. Exclusively for VK

Israeli political observers agreed in early September that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scrapped plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities in 2012.

Political analysts believe that the decision was made in the light of tensions between him and US President Barack Obama. The government, Israeli military authorities acknowledged the wise position of the US, confident that such operation carried out without US and NATO support would be destined to fail and could worsen the position of Israel in the region. Analysts do not rule out that all talks about a possible attack were necessary for Israel to pass harsher sanctions against Iran and gain guarantees that the US and Israel would destroy Iranian nuclear facilities when the point of no return is reached and nuclear bomb creation becomes inevitable. Netanyahu achieved the goals at a certain extent. Sanctions got harsher and, although Obama has given no guarantees about the point of no return, he is being pressurized by the US society to give a promise.

One of the most informed Israeli journalists Yossi Melman listed five reasons why Israel would not attack Iran before the presidential polls.

1. Israel will have autumn holidays lasting about a month. All governmental and civil work in the country will be “paralyzed”, making a strike at that period when everyone is having time off is pointless.

2. Netanyahu will visit the US in late September to attend the UN General Assembly and meet Barack Obama personally. It would be foolish to expect an attack during his visit to the US or his return.

3. Israel and the US plan joint military drills in October. Israel would most likely want to keep the plans in force.

4. Netanyahu has no need for approval by the Cabinet majority to make a strike on Iran. In other words, the government would not want to take such responsibility and the prime minister would not want to take it alone either.

5. Israel acknowledged that, despite intensification of nuclear bomb developments in Iran, the country will not construct it in late 2012.

Melman says that there will be no strike until November 4. What will happen after the US elections is uncertain.

An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in the next 2 months is still possible. There are facts proving the idea.

1. In his New Year speech for the Likud Party (Rosh Hashanah), former head of the parliamentary commission for foreign affairs and defenses Tzachi Hanegbi said that the prime minister would need to make a hard decision in the following 50 days and expressed hope that it would be the right one. He reminded that there would be a price to pay for attacking Iran. But if Israel neglects the Iranian nuclear bomb, there will still be a price to pay. Hanegbi reminded that Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion had warned against allowing Israeli opponents to obtain weapons of mass destruction. Hanegbi is a notable figure in Israel. He was one of the most authoritative politicians of Likud for years, but he joined the Kadima Party of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. He returned to Likud and became a close associate of Netanyahu. Hanegbi is also notable for speaking for an attack on Iran.

2. Israel continues expanding the Iron Dome air defense system, setting anti-air systems in various parts of the country.

3. Before the autumn holidays, Israeli state structures held an off-schedule session, opening 16 coordination points for the structures. They have been filled. Moreover, candidates for coordinators were selected without a start of open contests for the positions.

4. Outraged by leakage of information from the government, Netanyahu ordered all ministers to be checked with truth verifier machines to find the leaker.

5. US intelligence services started drills on prevention of attacks on Israel and Jewish community leaders, should Israel attack Iranian nuclear facilities.

Thus, the facts speaking for an attack on Iran are just as convincing as the contrary facts. The current Israeli government will most likely stick with the crossroad. Hanegbi was doubtlessly right when he said that any decision will need a very high price to be paid by Israel and primarily by its citizens.