WarSclerotic

Finally, the seeds that Israel has sewn in the Iranian groves are bearing fruit. In a surprising article in the highly regarded newspaper The Washington Post on Saturday, the editorial staff called on U.S. President Barack Obama to back up his promise to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons by complying with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request and drawing a red line. Basically, the U.S. president was urged to announce, in advance, what nuclear threshold Iran would have to cross before the U.S. would launch a military offensive, the same way Washington responded when Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The New York Times said the same thing a few days earlier, and if Obama does make such a declaration — as close as possible to the November election, to maximize the benefit — then Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s game of diplomatic poker will have achieved one of its main objectives.

But before we jump for joy, we should take a closer look at the facts: Obama has not yet made any declaration, and the harbingers of spring are just American newspaper editorials and a toning down of Netanyahu’s and Barak’s remarks. Netanyahu is aiming for a diplomatic achievement in the form of a stated U.S. commitment, and Barak is alluding to impressive American preparation, involving top-secret operational details. These two things are not contradictory, but there is a very clear difference in emphasis between the two.

There is still no guarantee that the U.S. will draw clear diplomatic or military red lines, but if Israel can live with this level of commitment, it will become clear that Netanyahu and Barak did in fact intend to do no more than play a hand of diplomatic poker. If so, that is why they were so publicly opposed to Israeli officials making declarations about Israel attacking Iran — these declarations were needlessly encumbering, and potentially undermining, Israel’s ability to achieve its poker objective. Those who directly or indirectly leaked information or exposed Israeli secrets to the world will feel embarrassed for having caused harm without meaning to.

This weekend was characterized by several turns of events. The enlightened world tried to step up sanctions against Iran. Netanyahu was right to exclaim that though the sanctions were significantly impacting Iran’s economy they were failing to derail the ayatollah regime’s nuclear aspirations. But still, the prime minister cannot be certain that the sanctions won’t soon begin to have the desired effect. In maneuvers such as this, the breaking point is never foreseeable. It is impossible for anyone to know when, if at all, the breaking point will come, before it happens.

If Obama commits to a clear red line he will become very active in the sanctions front, so as to avoid having to follow through on his military threat. Only Russia was, and still remains, an obstacle. Europe is also hesitant to adopt Israel’s stance, and things are moving forward slowly. European governments are suspicious of Israel’s innocence on the Palestinian issue and project this suspicion onto the Iranian issue.

Canada’s decision to close its embassy in Tehran last week was extremely important, but also raises sad thoughts. It was the right decision, worthy of encouragement and praise, and one should hope that President Shimon Peres and Netanyahu were not the only world leaders to congratulate Canada for the move. The sad part is that such a natural move has taken so long to happen, and that Canada is the solo pioneer marching ahead of the group, in perfect solitude for now. The entire world should have already done exactly what Canada has done. And still, thank you, Canada.